Mideast experts analyze viability of Gaza peace proposal

Amna Nawaz:

For more on all of this, we turn now to two "News Hour" regulars. That is David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C.

Welcome to you both gentlemen.

David, kick us off here.

Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute:

Thank you.

Amna Nawaz:

Tell us why Netanyahu would agree to this particular plan and why right now, when it could jeopardize his own governing coalition back in Israel.

Hussein Ibish:

Well, I mean…

(Crosstalk)

David Makovsky, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Look, I think Netanyahu had to balance a lot of different things. Amna.

First, Israel is more isolated than it has been. He knows there will not be a better deal than he would get one with them with Donald Trump. I think he doesn't want to miss that moment. He doesn't want to put more strain on U.S. relations, as President Trump has made clear he does want to end the war. And also he's aware that the sequencing of this 20-point U.S. initiative avoids a certain political trip wires for him.

They do not force him to bring the Palestinian Authority from Ramallah in the West Bank to Gaza. The issue of negotiations over two states are — is finessed and with wording that I think he could live with. He knows that his rivals will try to use anything against him within the coalition and this could bring down his government.

Until now, he has avoided that to do anything that would threaten his coalition. But elections are due in a year from now at the latest. And he may feel that, if faced between Trump and his own coalition, he's going to choose Trump. And I think he also feels that there were certain contentious points within the 20 points that were kind of resolved in his benefit.

So I think, if you take that all together, you see a prime minister who is not just sounding like yes but at this point, hoping that Hamas will torpedo the deal for him. But I think he's putting the primacy on Trump.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, let me — David, if I may, bring in Hussein on that point then.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

You make the segue for me.

Hussein, what now with Hamas? The plan sits with them.

Hussein Ibish:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Trump has said, if they don't accept it, Israel has his permission to — quote, unquote — "finish the job." Are they incentivized to join on the plan?

Hussein Ibish:

Whatever that means. Yes, I mean, I have no idea what finish the job means. Nobody knows, least of all the Israeli military, which will be handed the job, which they don't want, because they don't have a mission that can be described in any coherent, intelligible sense.

Look, the earlier drafts of this document that I have had described to me in detail by people who know about it and diplomats who are very familiar with earlier drafts was a lot more reasonable towards Hamas and towards the Palestinians.

Essentially, Netanyahu has gotten rid of — has convinced Trump to water this agreement down, as David said, finesse, issues like the Palestinian right to a state, which is something Israel has never recognized ever, down to the point of meaninglessness.

It is basically an instrument of unconditional surrender, with one exception, which is the release of prisoners. That — it's specific about that. Everything else is pretty well laid open to the voluntary action of Israel to go according to its own judgment.

And I think it's going to therefore be very difficult for Hamas to agree to this. They might have agreed to an earlier version, because they have their eyes set on the West Bank, rather than Gaza, and political power among Palestinians, rather than this endless war with Israel they have gotten into.

So I think they might well have agreed to the earlier versions, but Netanyahu took out everything that might have been appealing to them. And I agree he's relying on them to torpedo this. And I think it would be kind of dumb for them to do it, because if they say yes and put him in the spot…

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

Hussein, if I may, am I hearing you say you don't think that Hamas would sign on to this? Is that correct?

Hussein Ibish:

I would be surprised if they do, though they're under tremendous pressure. Netanyahu faces the triple pressure of the military, the public, and Trump.

Hamas faces pressure from everyone, absolutely everyone, not least of which the Palestinian people. But I think they may say no.

Amna Nawaz:

Let me turn back to David then on this point that Hussein raised, David, which is that a reformed Palestinian Authority is part of this plan. The language leaves the door open for an eventual Palestinian state. Those are both things Netanyahu has opposed.

Is this written in a way that gives the Israeli government room to maneuver around that, just to keep saying, well, the P.A. hasn't met the reforms as they're laid out?

David Makovsky:

Look, I would say this, and let's — to be fair about it is that they are front-loading here very important things that the world has wanted, the Arab world has wanted, the Muslim world has wanted, which is in the war, surge aid into Gaza, begin reconstruction of Gaza.

That is all there. And as Hussein and I, who know each other for all these decades, knows that the enemy is — the perfect could be the enemy of the good. And when we say nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, in the Middle East, often nothing is agreed.

I think what the president is trying to do here is to say, let's just end the war now. Let's release the hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Let's surge the aid. Let's begin reconstruction, create a mechanism, close the door on Gaza annexation for Israel. No forced displacement by anyone. And Gaza for the Gazans, essentially.

Hussein Ibish:

Yes.

David Makovsky:

The whole Riviera concept of Trump, of immigration is clearly explicitly said this is not what they're trying to do. So I do think that there are a lot of elements here that people would like and that we should get going on.

(Crosstalk)

Hussein Ibish:

I agree with that.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

Hussein, I will just note, I will give you the last word here. We have got about a minute left. Please go ahead. Yes.

Hussein Ibish:

Yes, I think Hamas would be wise to do this, not just from a moral and human managerial point of view, but, politically, it would be the smart place, say yes or even yes but, which is what Netanyahu, I think, was planning to say to the original drafts.

However, Hamas is not thinking about this in any other terms other than strategically and politically, which is exactly the way Netanyahu is thinking about it. And I think there are — things like the Palestinian statehood are not optional for the Gulf countries and others, and especially not for the Palestinians.

And Israel must be compelled at some point to recognize that Palestinians have the right to a state. They have never acknowledged that, and they must acknowledge that. And until they do, there's going to be a big problem.

Amna Nawaz:

Gentlemen, we will have to leave it there. We hope to have you both on to continue this very important conversation.

Hussein Ibish, David Makovsky, thank you so much.

Hussein Ibish:

Thank you both. Thank you, David.

David Makovsky:

Thank you, Amna. Thank you.