Mideast experts discuss what’s next for the region as Israel-Iran conflict erupts

Geoff Bennett:

And for a wider perspective, we turn now to Wendy Sherman, who was the lead negotiator for the nuclear agreement with Iran during the Obama administration. She served as U.S. deputy secretary of state during the Biden administration and is currently a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

And Vali Nasr is a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. And he's also the author of "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History."

Our thanks to you both for joining us.

Wendy Sherman, we will start with you.

The U.S. says it was not involved in Israel's strikes against Iran's nuclear sites. But is this attack, in your view, is it aligned with U.S. interests? Or does it introduce new and unpredictable risks for U.S. forces and regional stability?

Wendy Sherman, Former U.S. Undersecretary of State: I think it certainly introduces a lot of risk for all of the military personnel, some 40,000, in the region, and the hundreds of thousands of Americans in Israel, as well as in the wider region.

There is no question that all of us don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. That was the whole reason that President Obama asked Secretary Clinton, Secretary Kerry, and myself to work hard to get a joint comprehensive plan of action with Iran to put constraints on its nuclear program.

Donald Trump, in his first term as president, as you know, in 2018, pulled out of that deal. I don't think we'd be where we are today if that hadn't happened. And I think now we risk the potential for a much wider war. We have seen now a strike by Israel, retaliation by Iran. We have just heard from the ambassador, Ambassador Leiter, that this will go on for some time. I expect tit for tat.

And we don't know who will get hurt in the process. I'm certainly hoping that all who are injured in Israel make it through.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Vali Nasr, you heard the Israeli ambassador say that Israel's goal was to eliminate Iran's enrichment facilities, that regime change was not their objective.

Do you agree? Or do you think that Israel is aiming for something more right now?

Vali Nasr, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University: I think the approximate excuse is to destroy Iran's nuclear program.

But I think Israel sees an opportunity to do much more. Israel has come out of the October 7 issue, out of the Gaza war triumphant, confident in its own military capability. It believes Iran is weaker, and it wants to press the advantage to essentially definitively change the balance of power between Iran and Israel, and, in fact, topple the Islamic Republic, which Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly said that he would like to see happen.

And so I think the way that this attack happened, the fact that it went beyond hitting missile sites, nuclear sites, that it went against the top leadership of the state, and also hit civilian targets within Tehran and varieties of cities, indicated that Israel actually wants to degrade the institutional basis of the state, and, as Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people today, to pave the way for the collapse of the regime.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Wendy Sherman, if Israel's initial strikes have degraded, not destroyed Iran's nuclear programming, what are the consequences of the region being on this cycle of repeated military action?

Wendy Sherman:

Well, I think it's quite concerning.

Israel has said today, because Iran targeted civilians in Israel, that they have crossed a red line and that Israel will now go after economic infrastructure. That is likely to include the oil and oil refineries inside of Iran. We saw Saudi Arabia come out with a statement in support of Iran. I think they understand that the price of oil is about to go way up if in fact this occurs.

And so I think we're seeing the potential for great destabilization in the region, not the stability that we all have been seeking.

Geoff, Vali understands this very well as well. President Trump said that he would solve Ukraine, he would solve Gaza, get the hostages back, and get a deal with Iran. None of that has happened, because all of this is quite hard work, can't be done in a day. And for all Steve Witkoff has tried, it can't be all done by one human being.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Vali Nasr, I mean, Israel's massive airstrike killed several senior commanders, Iranian commanders, including the head of its Revolutionary Guard.

What does that level of decapitation mean for Iran's ability to respond moving forward and for the stability of the regime itself?

Vali Nasr:

Well, I don't think the stability of the regime is at risk yet, unless a lot more happens. But it does create confusion at the top.

But the issue in Iran is not just the killing of these leaders. It's also the damage that has been done to the country's infrastructure, to its nuclear missile infrastructure. That matters more. But, also, a lot of civilians have died into Tehran, in other cities as well. Close to at least 100 Iranians were killed because they — some of the places that were hit by Israel in order to assassinate these leaders were residential areas.

So I think that line that Wendy mentioned has already been crossed by both sides, and that puts this conflict in a very different place. And I don't see it stopping, because I don't see Iran being able right now to go to the table. It cannot accept surrender. It feels compelled that it has to retaliate. And then that's going to invite additional retaliation.

And, to Wendy's point, President Trump started by saying he wanted diplomacy to win, and now he's going to earn himself a war that he said that he did not want and leave the region, I think, more unstable than when he arrived in office.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, if this current regime in Iran survives, do you expect it will try to rebuild its nuclear program, given how much it's been a point of national pride and a defiant symbol against the West? Can you imagine any scenario where Iran might abandon that ambition?

Vali Nasr:

I do not see it, particularly now, because, if until now, their nuclear program was offered negotiation in exchange for sanctions relief, now Iran sees a very powerful military adversary, which is armed by the West, which is supported by the West, and it's capable and willing to act at will.

And if you're going to deter against it and confront it, conventional military capabilities that Iran has will not do it. So it's a great temptation in Iran to resort to any nuclear deterrence against Israel. It's not going to be easy for them, but I think the argument to do that is now much stronger in Iran.

Geoff Bennett:

Should let our viewers know we had a technical issue with Wendy Sherman's shot coming into our control room.

So, Vali, final question now is, what would it take to rebuild any path to diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran? Is that door closed for the foreseeable future?

Vali Nasr:

I think it's closed, because I think Iran views now President Trump as having been duplicitous. He engaged in negotiations. He was not very serious about it.

In fact, the very two — first two meetings, the U.S. was not even prepared to discuss anything of substance. And he said that war might be possible if the talks failed, but he gave a green light to Israeli action, and he's now taking pride in doing that, even before the talks failed, before the last — the sixth round of the negotiation was supposed to happen.

It looks to Iranians that he is actually using the Israeli attack as part of the negotiations. And that makes it very difficult for them to go back to the table. President Trump wants Iran to surrender, not to sign a deal. And Iran right now is not ready to surrender. Maybe it will be down the road, but it's not ready right now.

Geoff Bennett:

Vali Nasr, our thanks to you. And, of course, our thanks to Wendy Sherman earlier as well. We appreciate it.

Vali Nasr:

Thank you.