Minnesota confrontations mirror simulation of how civil war begins, law professor says

Geoff Bennett:

Minnesota is the latest flash point in a federal crackdown involving ICE, Border Patrol, and other agencies. But it's far from the only place being targeted.

Aggressive tactics have played out in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C., and now Maine. The protests, the clashes, and the violence have raised urgent questions about where this all leads.

In a recent piece for The Guardian, Claire Finkelstein warns that what's unfolding in Minneapolis closely mirrors a U.S. civil war simulation she oversaw in 2024.

Claire Finkelstein is the director of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, and she joins us now.

Thank you for being with us.

Claire Finkelstein, University of Pennsylvania: Thanks for having me.

Geoff Bennett:

And we should say these simulations you helped run weren't designed to predict a second civil war, but were instead meant to stress-test the system. What motivated those exercises? And what were you most worried about then?

Claire Finkelstein:

There were really two things that motivated us.

And let's remember this was conducted in September of 2024. So it was before the presidential election. But we were worried. We were worried about what had happened on January 6, 2021.

We were also worried in the wake of the immunity decision, and what was that going to mean for potentially a more unfettered Trump second term and whether or not the rule of law would prevail and about the tensions, potential tensions between the federal government and state and local governments, and what that could mean for the rule of law.

Geoff Bennett:

When you look at what's unfolding now in Minneapolis, what feels uncomfortably familiar from those simulations?

Claire Finkelstein:

Well, one of the things that happened was, we saw a spinning out of control. And I hope that's not what's happening in Minneapolis, but a lot of what's been happening is going in that direction.

We saw a spinning out of control of the federal government. We saw a refusal to abide by court orders. We saw the difficulty that courts have in acting in time and difficulty enforcing their orders. So we have seen all of that. And then the attempt to attack state officials is something that we also looked at.

Geoff Bennett:

Why are clashes between state authority and federal forces so much more destabilizing than traditional or conventional unrest?

Claire Finkelstein:

Because traditional unrest is really about the people. It's not about government, per se.

And, hopefully -- and this is what we have had for most of our history -- you have the federal government and the state governments working together to try to get control over that unrest, to de-escalate the situation, and to work ideally in harmony together, or at least to have a functional working relationship and to partner together.

A lot of those partnerships are of long standing, person-to-person relationships. That was one of the things we found in our tabletop exercise, which is that those personal relationships can be very effective in de-escalating situations, sort of backdoor conversations.

But when you have the federal government and the state government unable to work together and giving different narratives, it's profoundly confusing to people. And, of course, it will have a tendency to escalate violence, as well as to really do damage to the rule of law.

Geoff Bennett:

And you have said that ICE is acting in ways that even exceed what was imagined in your simulations. What stands out to you?

Claire Finkelstein:

We did not have federal agents or federal troops openly defying the law, firing on protesters, and, frankly, killing them in cold blood.

We had imagined federal agents a little more like what happened in Portland in 2020 or even Philadelphia that summer, where agents were going back and forth with protesters, some of whom were violating the law, and where federal agents were using harsh tactics, but not to the point where they were openly attacking American citizens and actually quite clearly exceeding rules for the use of force.

Geoff Bennett:

And further applying your insights to this moment, the Department of Homeland Security, its officers have fired shots during enforcement arrests or at people protesting their operations 16 times since July.

No officer has faced criminal charges and the administration has not announced disciplinary proceedings against any of the officers or the agents involved. So how should we understand this moment, two American citizens shot and killed by masked federal agents, with no immediate accountability?

Claire Finkelstein:

So you said the right word, which is accountability.

That is key. Even if there is a deal struck -- and I'm heartened by the fact that President Trump and Governor Walz had a productive phone conversation, but a deal is not enough. There needs to be accountability for the illegal actions of federal agents, at least a full and fair investigation.

And state investigators need to be in on that. Beyond that, of course, state investigators have the right to conduct -- and prosecutors have the right to conduct their own prosecution in this situation. Now, the federal government will claim immunity or will claim that the agents have at least qualified immunity.

But there's a lot to argue there legally. And I think there's every reason to think that those agents were going beyond what they needed to do in order to carry out their official duties, which would vitiate the claims of immunity.

Geoff Bennett:

In your simulation, at what point does a democracy stop being governed by law and start being governed by power?

Claire Finkelstein:

If courts can't or won't resolve the conflict between the federal government and the state, then we have a serious threat to our democracy.

We rely on courts. And everybody should want these disputes to be resolved in a court of law and should commit themselves, whether they like the decisions or not, to abide by court decisions. When that doesn't happen, as to some extent happened in our scenario, then you have got a real threat to democracy.

Geoff Bennett:

Claire Finkelstein, director of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, thank you for your time this evening.

Claire Finkelstein:

Thanks for having me.