New poll reveals signs of hope for Democrats and red flags for Republicans

Amna Nawaz:

With the midterm elections now less than a year away, a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll has signs of hope for Democrats and a few red flags for Republicans.

So what is resonating with voters?

NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here to break down the numbers.

Good to see you.

Domenico Montanaro, Political Editor, NPR:

Hey. Good to see you.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's jump in.

So Democrats came off some big election wins in New Jersey, in New York City, in Virginia a couple of weeks ago. It seems like they have an advantage. Midterms are still a long way off. But what does the poll show?

Domenico Montanaro:

And in a lot of places across the country, up and down the ballot really. And I think that what this poll shows is that Democrats have a huge advantage right now.

And the real issue is because of affordability. But what the poll shows is, by 55-41 margin, Democrats — people say that they would pick a Democrat in their district if the midterm elections were held today. Now, why is that important? It's a plus-14 advantage on what's known as the congressional ballot.

When you have that large of a lead, it is really indicative of a potential wave. I mean, if you look back to 2022, for example, Democrats had only between an average of zero to four points. They lost nine seats. In 2018, Democrats had an advantage between six and 12 points in our poll. And they obviously won big, 40-seat advantage.

Now, most people don't expect that we're going to see a wave of that kind next year, but right now starts out with Democrats with a big advantage. And a big piece of that is because of independents and how they have slid away. I mean, a 61-28 percent margin, independents say that they would pick a Democrat.

Amna Nawaz:

Wow.

Domenico Montanaro:

These are major red flags and warning signs for the Republican Party right now.

Amna Nawaz:

And we know a lot can happen in the next year, but that also includes whatever happens on this redistricting front. We have seen efforts by President Trump and the Republicans, counterefforts by the Democrats in California. This is all tied up in the courts right now. But does any of this make the Democratic polling advantage moot?

Domenico Montanaro:

You know, it depends on how this winds up shaking out. But, frankly, we're seeing some evidence in the past week or so that this could boomerang on Republicans potentially.

Trump wanted to get five seats out of Texas. A court this week said that Texas' maps got to go back to the drawing board. Now, eventually, they might get what they want, but they're also banking a lot on Latinos in South Texas having moved toward Donald Trump. And what we're seeing in our polling, in the elections is that Latinos have really slid away from Donald Trump and Republicans.

They moved over because of affordability. And what we're hearing from a lot of those voters is that they don't feel that Trump has done enough to address lowering costs and that they are upset with how he's approached deportations in this country, feeling like they were OK with deporting criminals, but not OK with deporting people in their communities in the same way that they see it being conducted.

And like we have talked about, prices are the real issue, right? I mean, when you look at the issues inside our poll, 57 percent say that lowering prices should be the administration's top priority. Nothing else comes close. You can see there immigration 16 percent in second, and even a plurality of Republicans there say that lowering prices should beat Trump's top priority.

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, if you look at the Republican Party, we have seen some rifts. We have been covering Marjorie Taylor Greene's break with the president, him calling her a traitor.

But how are Americans looking at the president's performance right now?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yes, I think that this is a huge reason why maybe there's an opening for other Republicans to show some independence. I think they're going to be watching what happens with Marjorie Taylor Greene to see if she suffers any political consequences, as Trump says that she will.

If she doesn't, I wonder what that's going to mean as Trump continues to look further and further like a lame-duck and is on the wrong side of these issues. In the polling here, only 39 percent say that they approve of the job that Trump is doing. And when you look inside the numbers, only 24 percent of independents approve of the job he's doing.

Now, the other number, as you see, nine in 10 Republicans still sticking with the president. So it continues to put Republican candidates in a vice, because we're seeing that, when Trump is not on the ballot, Republican MAGA base voters don't necessarily show up. We heard from a lot of Republican voters in this poll who said that they are pro-Trump, but they're not necessarily voting for Republican candidates.

That is a real problem for them because they need to be able to show some independence from Trump to be able to say — to appeal to those crossover voters and to independents, but they can't alienate the base.

Amna Nawaz:

Can I ask you quickly about one more thing we saw in here?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Some bigger frustrations among American voters with political institutions and beyond. What do you take away from that?

Domenico Montanaro:

People don't like anything.

(Laughter)

Domenico Montanaro:

If you look at what they think about the confidence in institutions, really bad numbers here for almost everybody, including us in the media, by the way. Only 25 percent approve of what we're doing.

Amna Nawaz:

Full results, of course, always available online.

Domenico Montanaro, NPR, always good to see you. Thank you.

Domenico Montanaro:

Thank you.