Officials pessimistic about agreement between U.S. and Iran amid tense talks

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• Judy Woodruff:

  Today, for the first time, the recently elected Iranian government is negotiating its nuclear program with the world powers who signed the nuclear deal back in 2015.

  Iran wants relief from economic sanctions. The U.S. and Europe want Iran to roll back nuclear advancements.

  Nick Schifrin is covering the talks. And he joins me now.

  So, Nick, you have been following all of this. Tell us, how are the talks going?

• Nick Schifrin:

  They are meeting low expectations.

  It took months for the Iranians to return to the negotiating table. And they are sticking to hard-line demands that the U.S. says are impossible to meet. The Biden administration is prepared to lift many Trump era sanctions on Iran and unfreeze billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues that are currently locked in overseas accounts.

  But Iran says it wants more. It wants the lifting of all sanctions since 2015, including on all human rights issues, and a guarantee that the next president can't reimpose those sanctions. The Biden administration says that demand is particularly unrealistic.

  But it is real, says Johns Hopkins-SAIS Professor Vali Nasr.

  Vali Nasr, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University: What does Iran want?

  Iran wants the next American president not to be able to leave the deal as easily as Trump did. Any deal that could be reversed in two years literally has no value for them.

  For Iranians, this is not just a ploy to block us off. For them, it goes to the core of, what is the point of a deal? What are we going to get out of it?

• Nick Schifrin:

  U.S. officials hint, there are creative ways around Iran's demand. And U.S. officials say they are willing to negotiate an entirely new deal, but only if Iran shows flexibility.

  And, so far, Judy, it hasn't.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, Nick, what is known about how far along Iran now is in its nuclear program?

• Nick Schifrin:

  Today, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, said for the first time Iran was enriching uranium with advanced centrifuges in Fordow, a plant that is buried in a mountain.

  It's just the latest string of moves that Iran has made that break through the cap set by the Iran nuclear deal. That includes enriching up to about 60 percent of uranium. That's just a small step away from weapons-grade.

  It's spinning more advanced centrifuges in a more effective configuration. It has stockpiled more than 10 times the amount of uranium than allowed by the nuclear deal. And it started producing uranium metal, which is used in the core of a nuclear weapon.

  Now, all of that dramatically shortens the time Iran would need if it decides to pursue a nuclear weapon. But it also gives them nuclear knowledge that is irreversible, points out David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security.

  David Albright, President, Institute for Science and International Security: It can produce enough weapon-grade uranium in its existing centrifuges with its existing supplies of enriched uranium in as little as three weeks.

  You would have the equipment, the piping, all the little things you have to do when you adjust the centrifuges to make weapon-grade uranium, that they're practicing that. They're creating that equipment. And so that can't be taken away.

• Nick Schifrin:

  And what the problem is that that makes the limitations imposed by the original Iran nuclear deal much less valuable, especially since those limitations were set to expire starting in 2026.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, Nick, if they are not able to reach any kind of agreement this week, what happens?

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yes.

  So, U.S. officials have begun to talk about less for less, a little bit less sanctions relief for a little bit less nuclear rollback. They have also talked about increasing pressure on Iran if Iran sticks to hard-line.

  What would that look like? Diplomatic isolation with Europe, censuring Iran at the IAEA for restricting IAEA in Iran, and also trying to cut Iranian oil exports to China by punishing China.

  There's also a wild card, Judy. Israel has made it very clear it is willing to take covert action, military or cyber, in order to try and restrict Iran's nuclear program and to get Iran to actually make a deal at the negotiating table.

  In the end, the predictions for what comes next comes down to a fundamental question: Is Iran serious about making a deal? And there's a fundamental disagreement about that.

  Vali Nasr, for example, says, yes, because he says the country's economic woes threaten a handover of power.

• Vali Nasr:

  The conservatives are not going to be able to hold onto power if they come into the office and rule over a pauperizing Iran.

  The supreme leader needs stability. So, I do think they're motivated to arrive at an agreement.

• Nick Schifrin:

  But others disagree, say there's no evidence that sanctions or protests inside Iran actually threaten the regime.

  And David Albright, for example, urges the administration to increase pressure.

• David Albright:

  I think we should probably step up and imply substantial sanctions.

  And you literally match it. Iran did this today, we do this tomorrow, because, in the end, we don't have any sense from Iranians that they intend to negotiate a substantive deal that moves U.S. interests forward.

• Nick Schifrin:

  This round of talks is expected to end in the coming days, Judy, but experts I talk to are very pessimistic about the chances of progress.

  And they fear that there is a real serious chance of escalation in the coming months.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Tough decisions.

  Nick Schifrin, thank you.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Thank you.