Peace Prospects in Macedonia

MARGARET WARNER:

For more on the prospects for bringing peace to Macedonia we turn to Ljubica Acevska, who was the Republic of Macedonia's first ambassador to the United States. She is now a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center. Ilir Zherka, president of the National Albanian American Council, a U.S.-based group that advocates Albanian interests; and retired Army General William Nash, who commanded the first U.S. peacekeeping force in Bosnia after the Dayton Peace Accords were signed in 1995. Last year, he served as the United Nations civilian administrator for Northern Kosovo. He's now director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Welcome to you all. Mr. Zherka, a cease-fire a couple of weeks ago didn't hold. How durable do you think this one is?

ILIR ZHERKA:

I think it's going to hold. The NATO was involved in the cease-fire. They got both sides to come to the table and negotiated directly with the National Liberation Army and got the Macedonian government to pull back from what people criticized, a military campaign that was folly, was pure folly, that was sharply criticized by human rights watch and the U.S. envoy. So the Macedonian government pulled back, NATO was involved in the talks and it was part of signing the talks, so even though there was some breach of the agreement over the weekend, I think this one will hold.

MARGARET WARNER:

To you share that view, Ms. Acevska, that the negotiators do have some breathing room here?

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

I think so. There is a difference right now — that the fact that there is a U.S. negotiator there on the ground and also a representative of the European Union, I think there is a willingness on all parties to take the steps forward. I am optimistic about this. But I mean, I think flare-ups will continue.

MARGARET WARNER:

How do you rate the prospects?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

The prospects for a cease-fire will directly parallel the optimism or lack thereof on the political negotiations. So as the word comes from the negotiating room that there is progress, there's participation on both sides and an active dialogue, then I think the cease-fire will hold, notwithstanding one or two minor incidents that are not necessarily politically motivated.

MARGARET WARNER:

So, Mr. Zherkza, what do the Albanian negotiators want? What's the bottom line here for them?

ILIR ZHERKA:

Well, right now they're trying to achieve equal rights and the means to protect the rights that they do secure through an agreement so I think the bottom line for them is getting the legal changes in the constitution and in law to protect those rights. Now, the negotiations are ongoing and there's different proposals out there. Part of what the Albanian side has talked about is proportional representation in the parliament, the creation of a vice president to ensure Albanian participation at the executive level, and a series of other changes, legal changes, that would help protect their rights.

And that's what they're looking for. And I think that's one of the main stumbling blocks right now to achieving an agreement. But what's put forth today I think is a substantial shift in terms of the Macedonian position. Up until now they've been very reluctant to engage on the fundamental reform issues.

MARGARET WARNER:

Let me ask Ms. Acevska to comment on that. Is the Macedonian government– I apologize for my voice– ready to give the kind of concessions that the Albanians are looking for?

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

You know, let me just point out though for nine-and-a-half years the Albanians and the Macedonians did live together peacefully. And even within this constitution it does protect the rights and privileges of all citizens of the country; there is willingness on the Macedonian side to make compromise in the constitution in the name of peace. But again, this has to be done within the framework of a cease-fire.

There cannot be attacks during the cease-fire. But also the demands have to be realistic. You know, whatever is decided upon, you have to think about the future. What will be satisfactory for all citizens of that country in the future? So that is where they have to, you know, make a compromise. Each side does have to make compromises.

MARGARET WARNER:

Politically, Mr. Zherka, the rebels of course are not at the table. Can the politicians who are there, the ethnic Albanian politicians deliver the rebels? Are they in a position to really make a deal on behalf of the rebels?

ILIR ZHERKA:

Well, I think the position of the rebels on reforms has been almost identical if not identical to the position of the politicians on reforms. So if they're talking about the same thing and there's an agreement on the basics I think you'll get NLA's sign- off on this. There is talk between some of the Albanian politicians and certainly internationals with the NLA, so there are consultations. They're being talked to. They're not directly at the peace table but they are involved in the process.

MARGARET WARNER:

How confident is the government that the Albanians, that they're negotiating with, can deliver or can speak for or commit the rebels who have been doing the fighting?

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

Well, I mean, again, there is that hope, of course. There is the uncertainty but in these discussions, the Albanian negotiators must represent the wishes and the desires of the rebels.

MARGARET WARNER:

Now, the flip side of that is can the government rally the Macedonian Slav population to support a deal that gives the Albanians greater rights?

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

But again, see, that's why it is very important in these discussions, negotiations, that both sides compromise, both sides be realistic in their demands, in their concessions, because there has to be an agreement which is acceptable to all sides. If you give in too much right now, well, tomorrow then the other side becomes antagonistic. So both sides have to deliver and be realistic in what is expected.

MARGARET WARNER:

General, what's your assessment of, first of all, how willing each side is really to make the kinds of concessions that are required?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

Margaret, I think the first thing I would point out is be cautious about believing in unanimity either on the Macedonian government side or within the Albanian community. There's political competition within both groups — separate from the competition between the two groups. And, therefore, the ability to deliver the rebels to an agreement, the ability of the government to completely institute the changes that might be agreed upon. Time will show us whether or not either side can bring that about. It is not a certainty in my mind.

MARGARET WARNER:

How serious do you think is the lack of unity? In other words, how strong are the more radical factions on both sides?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

Well, that's the whole issue. The fact that the pressures from the radicals have caused even the moderates to move away from the centrist position. And I consider that a dangerous threat. I also believe that much of the uncertainty at least began from external forces being introduced into Macedonia.

MARGARET WARNER:

You mean from Kosovo.

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

From Kosovo coming across the border. The degree and the sustainment of that is uncertain in my mind, but I know that is certainly where it began.

MARGARET WARNER:

You both mentioned how important NATO's role is. How important specifically is the promise of sending peacekeepers and why is that so important?

ILIR ZHERKA:

Well, I think the National Liberation Army soldiers are not comfortable handing over their weapons to Macedonian officials. So one of the prerequisites for signing a cease-fire and also agreeing to this peace process that will eventually lead to a resolution was that NATO would come in and that the arms would be turned over to NATO forces rather than the government. Obviously a lot of these people are concerned also that they receive amnesty. And this is part of their fear, that if they're giving over a weapon to Macedonian soldier, then that person might turn around and arrest them. So I think it's very important to have NATO involvement, and I think we'll see it and that's an essential part of this process.

MARGARET WARNER:

And is it equally important for the Macedonian government and the Slav majority? We did see some evidence of in fact hostility to NATO troops at least from members of the public and some police reservists who were involved in that riot at the parliament.

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

Let's remember what happened. I mean there was… You know, that was also the expression of the frustration, the anger that's been building up when NATO transported the rebels from one area to another rather than disarming them. They just transported them along with their weapons to another area. And also there were rebel attacks in another part of Macedonia where two people were killed.

MARGARET WARNER:

I'm sorry. I didn't mean to revisit something two weeks old. But really how well received would a NATO force be by the government and by the Slavic majority?

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

I think it will be well received. The government has asked for NATO, but I think just as important as having NATO to help implement peace, to keep peace I think that it's very important for economic assistance to be given… To be given alongside with the arrival of NATO because the economy is a shambles right now.

MARGARET WARNER:

Do you, General, think this was a prudent offer on NATO's part to offer to send in these troops if a deal can be reached?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

I think it's a central element of any agreement but not the overriding concern. The example that you brought up about the riot, that the U.S. forces met a couple weeks ago, is symptomatic of the weakness of the Macedonian government in addressing the issues confronting them. So without the associated political economic and social aspects incorporated with the military efforts, it will be for naught. The disarmament part itself is important but very difficult, and there are many issues to be addressed as they formulate that.

MARGARET WARNER:

Describe some of the difficulties because this is something, for instance, that the troops, the NATO troops had not done in Kosovo it's so difficult.

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

The fact of the matter is, is that even today five years after the introduction of American forces in Bosnia, there are still weapons running around that country, okay? And every day there is seizure of weapons. It's even worse in Kosovo. So how do you know you have all the weapons? When you have collection points, they bring weapons in voluntarily. How do you account to make sure you've got them all? How do you know what you don't know about the weapons?

So a verification and…of the disarmament process, the withdrawal of the forces and the monitoring of the continued absence of those forces will be a long-term effort to allow the space for the Macedonian government and the Albanian leadership to implement the agreement that they… we hope that they come to shortly.

MARGARET WARNER:

I mean, how… If people are watching this and realizing that at least some American troops might be involved, how dangerous a mission is it potentially?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH:

Well, I think it's a prudent risk that the United States and NATO would take in that. I don't think that any of those forces– be they Macedonian or Albanian– want to take on any NATO force that would be involved. There will be a strong, capable organization that goes in there to do that. What the American people need to understand is this is not a 30-day job. This is a longer term.

MARGARET WARNER:

Of course we're getting ahead of ourselves. What if there is no agreement? Then what?

ILIR ZHERKA:

Well, I think that if there's no agreement, clearly the situation will get much worse and the civil war that everyone has been afraid of could arrive, which is why everyone I think rightly is committed to this process. Now, I don't think that you'll see resolution necessarily in the next few days. It may even take a week or two or longer than that. But I think all sides of this grand coalition, the political parties, Albanian and Slav, are committed to coming to resolution. Now, whether or not they can find that middle ground is the question.

MARGARET WARNER:

Briefly, do you see the danger of civil war if this doesn't work?

LJUBICA ACEVSKA:

Well, in the long-term, yes, if it doesn't work, yes, there is that potential. That is why everybody must put their focus on trying to come up with a viable solution and also along with the help of the international mediators, the U.S. mediator and the European Union. It is very, very important to reach the agreement as soon as possible.

MARGARET WARNER:

All right. Thank you all three very much.