Polls Gauge Voter Sentiment Before Primary Season Kicks Off

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Next, what voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say they're looking for in a presidential candidate. With the first votes for the party nominations to be cast in just eight days, we're joined by Andy Smith. He's professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the university's survey center. And Ann Selzer, who directs the Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register newspaper.

Good to see both of you. Thank you. The polls show that pretty much these races are close in both of these first states, the frontrunners bunched up at the top.

Ann Selzer, to you in Iowa, what percentage of the voters there would you say have absolutely made up their minds at this point about whom they're voting for?

ANN SELZER, Des Moines Register:

Well, the races on both sides have been very slippery and the lead changing sort of every time we go into the field and take a poll.

When we really drill down into our data and say, "Well, what do we know for certain?" we know it's no more than one-in-three who say they are definitely going to the caucuses, they have a first choice, and their mind is made up, they will not change and support another candidate.

And that doesn't seem like a lot, but this is the time in these last few days that people will be locking in.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

So two-thirds potentially of likely caucus voters aren't sure yet?

ANN SELZER:

Well, there are many things that sort of keep them taking a look. I mean, I think they're really trying to now figure out who is going to be the right person.

On the Democratic side, they just don't want to make a mistake. They want to be sure that the person that they support can win the nomination, and can win the presidency, and then will be successful as a president.

And as you hear them walk through their logic, it's almost a little bit like Groundhog Day. You keep hearing people say the same thing over and over, but they come to different conclusions. There are people who say, "For that reason, I support Hillary Clinton," or they will say, "For that reason, I cannot support Hillary Clinton."

And the Republicans, it's a little bit different. It's really finding a candidate they can live with and feel comfortable with. They have concerns about every one of them, and it's trying to just figure out who to lock in with and take to caucus night.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Well, let me turn to New Hampshire and ask Andy Smith, what percentage of voters there have made up their minds?

ANDY SMITH, University of New Hampshire: We're seeing a very similar thing here in New Hampshire that only about a third of the voters on either the Republican side or the Democratic side have absolutely made up their mind about who they're going to vote for.

And that fits in what we've seen in the past. According to exit polls both in 2000 and 2004, about half of the voters say they make up their minds in the last week. More than a quarter say they make up their mind in the last couple days before the election. So we're in sort of a typical environment here.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

So not so different from in the past?

ANDY SMITH:

No, not different at all. And I think that we're looking for an electable candidate, as well.