Possible deal on Ukraine aid, immigration reform at risk of collapsing

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• Amna Nawaz:

  We start with two intertwined and looming issues. High-stakes negotiations over a possible deal to aid Ukraine and reform the U.S. immigration system are at risk of collapsing under their own political weight.

  Congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins spent the day speaking with lawmakers on Capitol Hill. She's here now to explain.

  Lisa, good to see you.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Good to see you.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So bring us up to speed. Where do things stand on Capitol Hill?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  After these weeks of very urgent and serious talks between lawmakers on Capitol Hill and maybe some less serious sound bites from others not involved in negotiations, we are now on the edge of a complete failure by our lawmakers to either address the border security right now or to figure out what they want to do to help or not help our allies in Ukraine.

  As you know, we were reporting those two issues have been linked since President Biden linked them in one bill and Republicans asked for policy changes at the border before they would support Ukraine funding. So let's look at where we are in this moment about that idea of linking these two bills.

  Right now, negotiators that have been working on trying to get that deal together actually have agreed on policy, I'm told by familiar sources, but they haven't yet figured out the dollars, how much money goes where. That's obviously a big problem, but the policy chunk is a huge breakthrough.

  However, conservatives have increasingly become skeptical on that policy. At the same time, Leader Mitch McConnell has made it clear today that he ideally would like a combined deal. However, he has a different problem. President — former President Trump opposes the combined deal, especially opposes the border security portion.

  And since New Hampshire, McConnell and other Republicans have started referring to Trump as a potential nominee of their party, and they have said he wants to run on the border issue.

  So what we have here is a political problem. Mitch McConnell said that behind closed doors to his Republicans last night, that no matter what they want, the politics mean that this kind of deal may not be able to go forward for Republicans.

  Meanwhile, what is going forward are those negotiations. The three senators that have been behind closed doors for weeks now, there they are right there, one Democrat, an independent and a Republican. They say they will work throughout the weekend with Democratic Leader Schumer in the Senate, saying he expects them to come up with a deal.

  Senator Sinema of Arizona said she does expect text on the border policy next week. We will see.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Take us back to the presidential politics you mentioned there.

  How big a factor is that in blocking any potential action for Ukraine or border funding?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Well, I will start by saying this deal always has been precarious, always has been difficult.

  It wasn't clear Democrats were going to be all the way on board. But in this moment, it is presidential politics absolutely that is blocking it and that has really kind of incited more fear, I think, in Senate Republicans, who might have been on the fence over whether to try and help some partial solution at the border, maybe not get all what they want, versus backing off altogether and doing kind of politically more expedient thing.

  One of the reasons, of course, former President Trump. I want to show one of the things that he wrote on social media just in the last day about this deal. He wrote: "I do not think we should do a border deal at all unless we get everything needed to shut down the invasion."

  Now, of course, Amna, this is not an invasion at the border. These are groups of asylum seekers largely, more than half of them family members. But you can see in that tone election year rhetoric that former President Trump will be using.

  Now, to respond to this, to make it even more clear, the last person before Trump to be the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, had something to say today.

• Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT):

  The fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn't want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is really appalling.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  As we speak, I'm told by my sources in the Trump campaign that he is now responding to Romney directly. It's kind of a blast at Romney, as you would expect.

  All of this, also another problem, no one was clear that the House was ever going to pass this deal. But senators wanted to do something. They still may try.

• Amna Nawaz:

  What about this critical aid funding. We keep calling it critical aid funding. We know they have been seeking it since last fall. When does the inaction to pass funding here start to create more problems there?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  I want to credit Nick Schifrin for a lot of this reporting as well.

  Right now, the U.S. is paying not only for some help, critical weaponry, but also the Ukraine government to keep financially viable. Four billion dollars is needed for them routinely to keep the payroll going. The U.S. is paying for teachers, those kinds of things. And, by the way, if there's not air defense for Ukraine, that will be a game-changer soon. They will probably not be able to make it as they are coming up quickly.

• Amna Nawaz:

  That's our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins, covering these critical negotiations.

  Lisa, thank you.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  You're welcome.