President Bush’s Trip

MARGARET WARNER:

To discuss the significance and prospects for the president's trip, we turn to two former national security advisors: Brent Scowcroft, who served under the first President Bush, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, who held the post after President Carter. He is also a counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Welcome to you both.

So, Zbigniew Brzezinski, how crucial this is trip for president bush's aspirations in terms of international policy?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

Well, I think it has two very important dimensions. The first involves some restoration of a shared strategic perspective in the Atlantic Alliance with our European allies, and specifically also some understanding regarding the remaining problems of the Middle East with some people around the president urging him to push hard on Iran and perhaps to explore the possibilities of the Europeans assisting us on this. And the second issue is a recommitment to a serious peace process in the Middle East with that being linked to the future also of Iraq, of stability in the region.

MARGARET WARNER:

There are many commentators, Brent Scowcroft who are calling this the most ambitious foreign trip of his presidency. Would you agree with that?

BRENT SCOWCROFT:

I think it is. First of all, the G-8 Summit is, as Zbig says, an attempt to start to heal wounds, as is the trip to St. Petersburg. Poland is to pat the Poles on the back for their strong support. As a matter of fact, they're leading part of the peacekeepers in Iraq. But– but the really surprising part is the president's decision to really put his prestige on the line to try to move the peace process forward. It's a pretty dramatic trip.

MARGARET WARNER:

Let's look first a little more at the European portion of this trip. What did you make of his interview with French television, we ran a little excerpt there in which he said, "I want to move on." At the same time he talked about frustration and disappointment. What is really his objective here, vis-à-vis the French in particular?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

Well, as I said earlier, I think it's an attempt to reignite some shared strategic purpose for the alliance.

MARGARET WARNER:

In what sense? For what?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

In the sense that the alliance is going to be more active out of Europe, sometimes referred to as out of area. And Europeans, to make it more geographically specific, share a common interest in stability and peace in the Middle East. But we don't quite define it the same way. There is still lingering disagreement about Iraq, a great deal of European reaction to the fact that the weapons of mass destruction have not been located, and a potential disagreement about Iran, not to mention the obvious European interests in a serious peace effort regarding the Israelis and the Palestinians.

MARGARET WARNER:

And do you think that the French and Germans are interested in a rapprochement and to what degree?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

I think they realize the war is over. There is no point in fighting that issue again. I think they will slowly move toward being more helpful on Iraq. I think they are going to be very suspicious of any arguments which sound like echoes of the campaign to go to war against Iraq about Iran. And they'll want reassurance, which the president has started giving publicly, that he really is serious about the peace process.

MARGARET WARNER:

How do you read the president's attentions vis-à-vis the Europeans? Some administration's briefing on background said yeah, we want to work together but this isn't a question of apologies or making amends. One official even talked about a speech that is going to challenge the Europeans. What do you think the tone is going to be?

BRENT SCOWCROFT:

I think the tone will be let's put the differences behind us. They were bitter. There were problems maybe on both sides, but let's look forward. There's damage that has been done, fractures within NATO, fractures within the EU, problems about leadership in Europe, all of those things. So let's start with a sort of clean slate instead of recriminations or apologies, let's just move forward and say: what are the problems that we face? In the G-8 framework, what is the world economy like? Are we facing deflation, all those things? I don't think they'll get into it very deeply. But I think it is an attempt to move forward and to end this sort of guilt, recrimination and so on.

MARGARET WARNER:

And how do you read the way the French and Germans see it? Do you think they're interested in a rapprochement or is France, as many U.S. officials think, interested still in having Europe as a counterweight to the United States and trying to rally Europe around that?

BRENT SCOWCROFT:

I believe there will be a difference between the French and the Germans. I think that the Germans are… the German people are uneasy with the position of opposition to the United States. They have been very close allies with us, and I think they will be eager to move back to a more comfortable position. The French, there's still this lingering issue of leadership within Europe, within the alliance. So while I think on the surface, things will move ahead, I don't expect close relations to resume anytime soon.

MARGARET WARNER:

Now in the Middle East, Zbigniew Brzezinski. The president in two interviews with two different Arab networks said repeatedly, "I want to look these leaders in the eye, I want to tell them I'm really ready to work for this. When George W. Bush turns his attention to something, things happen." It was a real statement of personal commitment. Do you think he is really committed?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

Well, first of all, you're absolutely right, it really is a remarkable statement of political commitment. In addition to what you have shown on the screen, you've referred to something that I want to read out. It was in an interview with the Egyptians. And this is what he said, "People have got to know when I say something, I mean it. Hopefully by now people have learned that; that when George W. commits America to a project, we mean that. We don't have idle chit-chat, that we're serious about our intentions." That is a statement of personal commitment.

And this is why, for the first time, since the presidency of George W., I'm beginning to think that he may actually push. But if he is going to push, I think he has to not only get the Israelis and the Palestinians to commit themselves to the road map, which reluctantly the Israelis have done, the Palestinians formally have done, but whether they can execute is another issue. But he has to reassure both of them regarding some really fundamental doubts or fears that each side has about the outcome of the road map. He's got to do it in a subtle way, but there are two issues, specific issues, he has to address.

MARGARET WARNER:

One, do you agree that the commitment is there, and if so why? I mean, this is a president he and his aides… certainly he has kept himself aloof. And they're very critical of President Clinton for getting too involved.

BRENT SCOWCROFT:

I think it is a very courageous move, actually. You ask the question why. He could easily have said, I'm going to turn my attention to the peace process but we have an election coming up, I have all these things and we'll do it later. I think, first of all, the circumstances he may have read as being favorable. First of all, the conflict in Iraq sort of changed psychology in the region and gave a boost to moving on the peace process.

Then there is the fact of the road map itself is not perfect, but it does lay out a path that can be followed. And so I think that — and last, Mahmoud Abbas who is, in a way, a creation of President Bush, who said I'm not going to deal with Saddam. And people said you have to deal with him. He's the leader. He refused to and now he has a leader he can deal with. But if he waited, Abbas probably could not survive. So I think he looked at the concatenation of forces here and said I'm going to do it. But Zbig is right. I mean he is on the line now.

MARGARET WARNER:

Do you think it also may be that if his overall objective, including with the war with Iraq was to create, to remake the Middle East region in a way that was less terror prone do you think he has come to the conclusion that you really can't do that without solving this conflict?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

Well, I certainly hope so, because if he solves this conflict, he will really validate even his military victory in Iraq; whereas, if he doesn't solve this conflict, even that military victory may gradually be undone. But I want to clarify what I had in mind when I said there are two issues he has to in a sense push forward.

The Israelis are afraid of the road map because eventually they think it may threaten the integrity, the religious, ethnic integrity of Israel. And he's got to hint in some fashion that the right of return is not going to be applied because that will threaten Israel. And the Palestinians are scared that Sharon is willing to accept a Palestinian state but only one divided into three enclaves, really kind of Bantu lands. And he has got to convey to the Palestinians that eventually that state will roughly approximate the '67 lines with mutually acceptable alterations.

MARGARET WARNER:

So what does he have to get… what has to happen on this trip for the trip to be a successful first step down this path?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

A firm commitment from both sides to take simultaneously steps that reassure the other; that is to say, a real cessation of terrorism by the Palestinians, suspension of violence, all of that by the organizations and on the Israeli part, a simultaneous step on the settlements. But, in my view, also some hint from the president that the road map is not pointing to some indefinite outcome, but on those two major issues, that there is a quid pro quo.

MARGARET WARNER:

What do you think he has to get on this trip?

BRENT SCOWCROFT:

I think on this trip what I think he has to do is underscore the road map and the new departure of the road map requiring simultaneous or parallel moves. Because each time before when there has been a good sign, there has been another suicide bombing or something, and it stops. So there has to be the understanding that another suicide bombing will not stop the process. There is a requirement for the Israelis to move and for the Palestinians to move. And step one is the most important.

MARGARET WARNER:

But in the past, including very recent past when he talks about this, he talks about the steps the Palestinians have to take on terror and then he says and when that's done, then he talks about the steps the Israelis have to take. Do you think he has changed on that, where he really is going to press Sharon as much as he presses Abbas?

BRENT SCOWCROFT:

My sense is that he is, because he has pushed hard on the road map itself. And if he doesn't, if he lets another horrible incident stop the process, then he's lost his initiative.

MARGARET WARNER:

Do you see the commitment to press each side equally? I mean the Arab reporters kept asking him, are you going to hold both sides accountable? And he said he was going to. But do you see evidence of that?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

I want to believe it. And I can't see him making any statements unless he means just that because he certainly knows that if he presses just one side he may get some tactical outcome that seems favorable, but the whole thing will collapse in no time flat. So he has no choice. And I think he's committed himself and his credibility now is on the line.

MARGARET WARNER:

And, very briefly, do you think that if he does, that he has a greater chance of success than President Clinton, who also had, of course, invested a tremendous amount of time?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI:

Well, in a way he does because Sharon, regarding whom I have strong reservations, still is a very tough leader who can deliver the right and 70 percent of the Israeli people ultimately want peace. But they also want security. And I think if the president really pushes hard, he could accomplish something really historically significant.

MARGARET WARNER:

Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, thank you both.