Previewing Primaries

GWEN IFILL:

And we go inside the last days of campaigning for the 151 delegates at stake in Tennessee and in Virginia with two political reporters who have been out on the hustings.

Tom Humphrey is the Nashville bureau chief of the Knoxville News Sentinel in Tennessee. And Tyler Whitley reports for the Richmond Times Dispatch in Virginia. Tyler Whitley, what is doing in Virginia and how is it shaping up so far?

TYLER WHITLEY:

They've been campaigning back and forth across the state the last week, they've been running TV ads, they've set up phone banks, and getting elected leaders in tow, and it looks like though at this point Kerry is going to win.

GWEN IFILL:

Why would that be? Why is Kerry doing well, at least it seems that way at this point in Virginia. Is it just momentum from other states or is there something in Kerry's message that Virginia voters are hearing?

TYLER WHITLEY:

I think it's a little bit momentum and part that they think he might be the candidate best able to beat President Bush. And the governor, Mark Warner, endorsed him Sunday, and that probably gave a little push.

GWEN IFILL:

Who would be number two if there's possible to figure it out based on what the direction you're seeing here?

TYLER WHITLEY:

Well, the poll over the weekend, Zogby Poll, showed Kerry with 47 percent and Edwards with 24 percent and Clark fading to 11 percent.

GWEN IFILL:

Tom Humphrey, how does it look in Tennessee?

TOM HUMPHREY:

Well, in Tennessee, the poll is also favoring Senator Kerry by an increasing margin actually. General Clark has really sort of bet the farm on Tennessee. He started running TV ads here back on Dec. 31, hasn't let up — has tromped the state a great deal, has invested more time and money than either of the other candidates, so the polls are fairly disappointing for him in that he is sort of neck and neck or runner up with Senator Edwards.

GWEN IFILL:

Let me ask you the same question that I just asked Tyler Whitley, which is what are voters listening for or are they listening for anything that gives John Kerry an advantage?

TOM HUMPHREY:

I think they are, Tennessee Democratic voters are really upset that the state went to George Bush last time around, with their hometown favorite Al Gore on board. They are looking for a winner, they perceive Mr. Kerry as having the national momentum and want to get that over with.

Countering that somewhat you have some regional loyalty between, we have one candidate, Mr. Edwards from a state to our east, one Mr. Clark from a state to our west, and that that regional loyalty sort of is split between those two, so letting Mr. Kerry take advantage while they split up the regional loyalty vote.

GWEN IFILL:

You just mentioned former Vice President Al Gore who was in the state last night, campaigning sort of on behalf of Howard Dean who he has endorsed and he had quite a lively speech that he delivered last night. Let's take a listen to it and then I want to ask you about it.

TOM HUMPHREY:

OK.

AL GORE:

I think there were millions just like me who genuinely in spite of whatever partisanship they may have felt prior to that time, genuinely felt like they wanted George W. Bush to lead all of us in America, wisely and well, and the reason I'm recalling those feelings now is because those are the feelings that were betrayed by this president. ( Cheers and applause ) He betrayed this country! He played on our fears!

GWEN IFILL:

Tom Humphrey, that was a fairly lively response he got, he really got the audience going. What does that tell us?

TOM HUMPHREY:

It was a really red meat speech for Democrats, and he got far better audience response than either of the candidates who spoke there. I think it tells you that the Democrats in Tennessee are fired up and ready for going after George Bush as best they can with their best candidate they can get.

GWEN IFILL:

But not necessarily for Howard Dean who Al Gore has been supporting?

TOM HUMPHREY:

No, in fact … well, Gore did not consult or even talk to any Tennessee people in the party. They were as surprised as anyone. And he has maybe not done as well to mend his Tennessee roots, Tennessee fence as he intended to when he first got off the campaign trail last time around. I think he's trying to come back a little bit.

Although he spoke kindly of Governor Dean in his remarks last night — he said, "I commend him to you" — he also was strongly saying nice things about the other candidates and saying he would stand with any Democrat who was better than George W. Bush, and he equated the Bush-Cheney administration with the Nixon-Agnew administration.

GWEN IFILL:

Tyler Whitley, when we hear these candidates on the stump talking about campaigning in the south, John Edwards and Wesley Clark in particular say, "You've got to send me to the White House because I'm a Southerner, I'm someone who can defeat George W. Bush." Is that working? Is there a regional bias that would help these candidates?

TYLER WHITLEY:

It doesn't seem to be and I agree with Tom Humphrey that Clark and Edwards are kind of splitting the Southern moderate vote, and that's helping Kerry, too.

GWEN IFILL:

Why is that, is that just because Virginia voters are just as pragmatic as voters in these other countries?

TYLER WHITLEY:

I think they are.

GWEN IFILL:

States.

TYLER WHITLEY:

And Kerry is running really strong in northern Virginia where the Southern aspect doesn't mean as much.

GWEN IFILL:

You're talking about northern Virginia and you're right, Virginia is a state of many different aspects. One is that it's a very heavily military state. Does that affect, does that help John Kerry because he's a veteran, does that help Wesley Clark because he's a retired general?

TYLER WHITLEY:

It probably helps John Kerry more than Wesley Clark, because there's so many privates and non-officers here. John Kerry though is running a very effective TV ad about his bravery in Vietnam, and I suspect that's helped him.

GWEN IFILL:

In other states, we've also seen John Kerry on the stump with veterans, people whose lives he saved or people who he served with in Vietnam. Is the Vietnam hot button turning voters out in Virginia?

TYLER WHITLEY:

Not that I can see. I think it could be a fairly light turnout.

GWEN IFILL:

Tom Humphrey, same question to you, what about the veterans vote in Tennessee?

TOM HUMPHREY:

The veterans vote is leaning, I think, a bit toward Mr. Clark, although Senator Kerry, although General Clark has a good bit of veterans working with him, has had some events with veterans. In fact, he attacked Senator Edwards for not supporting veterans enough in his Senate career, falsely of course, Senator Edwards said.

GWEN IFILL:

Has there been any sign of campaigning on behalf of the other three Democratic candidates, Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich or even Howard Dean?

TOM HUMPHREY:

Al Sharpton…

GWEN IFILL:

Well, let me start with Tennessee.

TOM HUMPHREY:

In Tennessee, Al Sharpton has made two visits, one yesterday, he's I believe in town today. Mr. Dean has not visited Tennessee at all. He made… has a core of volunteers and some of them very enthusiastic, but he had a cardboard poster standing up at his rally point last night at the Democratic gathering.

GWEN IFILL:

And Mr. Kucinich?

TOM HUMPHREY:

Mr. Kucinich is curiously coming here tomorrow on Election Day, he's scheduled a little event at noon. Other than that, he has had no presence in this state.

GWEN IFILL:

How about that, Mr. Whitley. Same thing in Virginia?

TYLER WHITLEY:

Yeah, Reverend Sharpton spoke to the Jefferson Jackson Day dinner Saturday night, and he stayed through yesterday to speak to some of the black churches. Dennis Kucinich is in Blacksburg tonight, addressing a student crowd at Virginia Tech. And Howard Dean a month ago was probably leading in Virginia and he's had no presence since.

GWEN IFILL:

So what is it now that these candidates have to do in Virginia, for instance — let's start with you — to seal this up, or is it already over?

TYLER WHITLEY:

I think it's probably already over. They all have these "get out the vote" operations tomorrow, and they hope they can motivate their people to go to the polls, but I'm not counting on a very big turnout. I don't think Virginia has been as excited about this as some of the other states.

GWEN IFILL:

Wasn't part of the purpose of scheduling this primary and these caucuses at this time was to get Virginia and Tennessee — I'll start with Virginia again — in the middle of this process?

TYLER WHITLEY:

Yes, and unfortunately for Virginia, Senator Kerry will start wrapping up things early, and I think Virginia already might be too late.

GWEN IFILL:

And I'll ask the same question to you, Tom Humphrey.

TOM HUMPHREY:

Yes, that was definitely the case. The Tennessee Legislature wanted Tennessee in the thick of things, and we have received a lot more attention from the national media and the candidates than in the past. But the same phenomenon has occurred, I believe Mr. Kerry with his national momentum is wrapping things up down here, and he's got a couple of key endorsements and key people in the Democratic establishment down here who have lined up with him.

GWEN IFILL:

You mentioned endorsements. Do they count any more, Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean and it hasn't particularly been helpful to him. You mentioned endorsements in Tennessee, the former governor was standing there in Virginia, we saw Governor Warner. Are endorsements changing anything, turning any tide, starting down in Tennessee?

TOM HUMPHREY:

In Tennessee I think Ned McWhirter is a country-talking, big bald fellow that a lot of rural Tennesseans look as the kind of Democrat they want, and it's sort of an odd juxtaposition to see him standing there with your Massachusetts, perhaps liberal by Tennessee standards, fellow. I think that's a sort of reassurance to the Tennessee Democrat those might be a little bit hesitant to support Senator Kerry otherwise. And he also has like Congressman Harold Ford, Memphis, whose family has a history over there and it can bring some votes in a Democratic primary — African American votes especially.

GWEN IFILL:

Same question to you, any endorsements in Virginia which have made a difference?

TYLER WHITLEY:

I guess Governor Warner has probably made some difference, but I suspect Kerry would have won anyway. Governor Warner is a cautious politician, and he probably wouldn't have endorsed if he didn't think Kerry was going to win.

GWEN IFILL:

I know you'll both be working late tonight. Thank you very much for joining us.

TYLER WHITLEY:

My pleasure.