Prolonged Iran war creating major dent in global economy, Cliff Kupchan says

Geoff Bennett:

For perspective now on the latest flare-up in the war with Iran and the impact on the global economy, we turn now to Cliff Kupchan, chairman emeritus at the consulting firm Eurasia Group and senior fellow at the think tank Center for the National Interest.

Thanks for being with us.

Cliff Kupchan, Chairman Emeritus, Eurasia Group:

Thanks.

Geoff Bennett:

So, what has the war with Iran meant for the global economy so far?

Cliff Kupchan:

It has meant and it continues to be a major irritation, a major dent. I mean, certainly, this war is not going to end any time soon. High energy prices, not just oil and LNG, but also refined product, which is worse than oil right now, stoke inflation.

And you have got this natural body of water that is a choke point for just so much of the global economy for oil, LNG, refined product, or for high tech, fertilizer. Just a lot of things we use every day goes through the strait. And it's going to be a very risky proposition getting stuff out of there for a long time.

Geoff Bennett:

And oil prices have certainly risen, not nearly as much as some analysts initially expected. Why has the impact been more limited than feared?

Cliff Kupchan:

Right.

Well, most analysts indeed thought we'd see $130, $140, $150, and we haven't. We got up to about $120, and that was short and didn't last long. So it hasn't been as bad as it could have been, for a couple of reasons.

First, more oil is getting out than I thought would get out, than most people thought would get out, about 800 million barrels a day last week from the strait itself, and 12 million barrels a day if you include the backup pipelines to the UAE and through Saudi; 12 million barrels a day is about 65 percent of prewar crude volumes, and that's a lot of oil.

Now, also China was not buying through the war so far, has picked up a little recently, but generally has not bought as much as it did previously for Strategic Petroleum Reserves. And, finally, both China and the U.S. are letting oil out of their reserves in an attempt to keep prices down.

So there's been effective management. Now, pressure will eventually build, and the crude price will go up. It's in the $90s right now, and diesel and product prices will go up even further and provide even more of a headache for the president. So there's a respite, but it's not an easy one. It's not a long one.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, how much of the current pressure on the global economy can be traced to the war, and how much can be traced to President Trump's trade policies?

Cliff Kupchan:

I think the trade policy -- we're past peak tariff, I think past the peak use of the tariff weapon.

And now I don't think a lot of what we're seeing right now, or most of what we're seeing right now is a first-order effect of the tariffs. I think more of it -- more of it is the war. That's what's really changed since February.

But the economy in this country is not doing all that badly going on in parallel with an unprecedented technology boom, unprecedented A.I. boom, all sorts of investment going in. So I think most of it is the war, but it's not as bad as it could have been, and we have got a whole lot of boom going on in the town I'm in right now, New York.

Geoff Bennett:

What should we be watching for that would suggest that the economic consequences of both the war and the tariff policies are becoming more significantly serious?

Cliff Kupchan:

Tariff policy I think is a one-trick pony. Either we sanction major Chinese refineries or we don't in this country. And I don't think that the U.S. is about to do that, upset the coming summit, upset U.S.-China relations, which the president really cares about. So I think, on sanctions, that's the main thing to watch.

On the war, how long does this last? The sort of no war, no peace is not tenable. As I said before, price pressure will build over time from crude. Price pressure will build over refined product. This is a dike that the president can't hold on to forever. Leaks will happen.

So I think, with time, I think with time, we're going to see an upward pressure on prices, and that's what we should watch for.

Geoff Bennett:

In the time that remains, I want to ask you about Russia, because the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, he met with his Russian counterpart at the G20...

Cliff Kupchan:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

... and reportedly said there'd be no economic relief for Russia, there'd be no agreement on any other issue until the war with Ukraine ends. What did you make of that meeting?

Cliff Kupchan:

I think the administration and Secretary Bessent got it right today. I think it's time to start some sort of meeting with the Russians. They're a major power. They are economic players, but, at the same time, make it clear that nothing will be normal about the relationship until the war is over.

So I give them credit for a good foray into diplomacy of the G20 in Asheville.

Geoff Bennett:

Cliff Kupchan, thank you again for joining us this evening. We appreciate it.

Cliff Kupchan:

My pleasure. Thank you.