Saudi Arabia’s Security Challenge

GWEN IFILL:

Targeting foreign workers in Saudi Arabia. Margaret Warner has that story.

MARGARET WARNER:

Saudi security forces in Riyadh continued their hunt today for the kidnappers of U.S. defense contract worker Paul Johnson. Johnson, a Lockheed Martin engineer who worked on Apache helicopters, was seized Saturday.

That same day, American Kenneth Scroggs, who worked for a defense technology firm, was gunned down as he pulled into the garage of his home in Riyadh. They were the latest victims in a six-week bout of violence against foreigners that has roiled this once-orderly kingdom.

Last Tuesday, Robert Jacobs, who worked for a U.S. company training the Saudi National Guard, was shot to death in his garage. A few days before that, a BBC cameraman was killed while filming in a neighborhood frequented by Islamic militants.

And late last month, 22 people, mostly foreigners, were killed in a daylong shooting and hostage-taking spree in the eastern city of Khobar.

A group calling itself al-Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula is claiming responsibility for the slayings and for Johnson's kidnapping. A statement posted on its Web site Saturday warned that Johnson would be treated the same way the U.S. military treated Iraqi detainees at Abu Ghraib prison.

And yesterday, the group issued this new warning: "All compounds, bases and means of transport, especially Western and American airlines, will be a direct target for our coming operations." Johnson's family and friends have gathered in his New Jersey hometown to await word of his fate. Johnson's son said it was time for American companies to pull out of places where they are targeted, like Saudi Arabia.

PAUL JOHNSON III:

I don't think that civilians should be in Saudi Arabia at this time, or Iraq, or any of them countries.

MARGARET WARNER:

About 35,000 Americans currently work in Saudi Arabia, most of them in the oil and banking industries. The U.S. Embassy has reduced its staff in reaction to the attacks. And this week, the State Department repeated its call for all Americans to leave the kingdom.

RICHARD BOUCHER:

We have asked them to leave. We have strongly urged them to depart ever since April 15. Now, obviously, some of them have not done so.

MARGARET WARNER:

Secretary of State Colin Powell commented on the attacks, and the Saudi government's reaction, on Meet the Press on Sunday.

COLIN POWELL:

Terrorists are going after the Saudi leadership. They're trying to make the country unstable. I know that the Saudis are treating it with the utmost seriousness, and they're counterattacking.

MARGARET WARNER:

Earlier this month, writing in a government newspaper, Saudi Arabia's U.S. Ambassador Prince Bandar called for a "war" against the Islamic radicals, and urged Saudi clerics to join the cause. "Honorable clerics must call for the ruler to declare Jihad against these deviants, and give him complete support in this matter," Bandar wrote. On Sunday, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah vowed to defeat the militants.

CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH:

I pledge, God willing, that they will not slip away from the hand of justice.

MARGARET WARNER:

Yesterday, six Saudi clerics who once espoused Islamic radicalism issued a statement condemning the attacks against Westerners.

MARGARET WARNER:

Late today, Paul Johnson's captors released a video of him. He was shown blindfolded and handcuffed and he was identified as an American. The video was posted on an Islamist Web site along with a statement by the kidnappers saying they would kill Johnson by Friday unless the Saudi government releases jailed Islamic militants.

So what's behind this latest wave of violence, and what could be the consequences for Saudi Arabia and foreign workers there? For that, we're joined by Theodore Kattouf, a retired foreign service officer who served as DCM — the No. 2 post — at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh 1995 to 1998. He later became ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and to Syria. Brian Jenkins, a senior adviser on terrorism at the RAND Corporation. And Fareed Mohamedi, chief economist for PFC Energy, an international energy consulting firm. Welcome to you all.

So who is this group the al-Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula, Brian Jenkins, that is claiming responsibilities for all this?

BRIAN JENKINS:

Well, before the destruction of the al-Qaida training camps in Afghanistan, there was a stream of recruits as well as financial support from Saudi Arabia to the al-Qaida network. The destruction of the camps in Afghanistan has not brought about an end to the sentiments that some of these people have, so some of the militants that probably would in previous years have gone off to join the global Jihad are now working in their own country, working closer to home and participating in these attacks, probably assisted by a number of veterans of the training camps themselves.

MARGARET WARNER:

Would you say it is al-Qaida as we know it, or a sort of a free lance spin-off group of the sort we've seen elsewhere in the world?

BRIAN JENKINS:

Well, connectivity with an al-Qaida is always a bit murky. The fact is that when we look at these organizations, there's certainly inspiration from al-Qaida Central. There are connections, they espouse the same ideology, the same operational doctrine, these people identified themselves as al-Qaida. Al-Qaida since the, since Sept. 11 has become worldwide a much more decentralized operation. I don't think that Osama bin Laden and Sheik Zawahiri are calling every single shot in Saudi Arabia. There is local leadership.

MARGARET WARNER:

And do you have any doubt or what is your belief that they'll carry through on their threat to kill the kidnapped American, Johnson, if their demands are not met?

BRIAN JENKINS:

Well, insofar as making these demands, I mean, most governments, including the government of the United States, reject making concessions to terrorists holding hostages. And the reason they often do so is not in realistic expectation that those demands are going to be met, but simply a way of displacing, in their mind, peculiar culpability for carrying out a killing, since they have demonstrated their willingness already to assassinate Americans and other Westerners in the kingdom as well as many Muslims, I don't think we can doubt their willingness to kill in the future.

MARGARET WARNER:

Ambassador Kattouf, do you think the Saudi government will negotiate with these, this group, and will give in to their demands to release militants?

THEODORE KATTOUF:

I think right now the Saudi leadership is relatively united, in fact more than relatively united, and I think they're determined to confront this threat. They've had a series of wake up calls now. It's not that they would never think of negotiating, and indeed there are some people who believe that in the takeover of the compound in Kobhar there might have been some negotiations that led to the escape of three, but in this instance I suspect that they're going to hang tough.

MARGARET WARNER:

And the U.S. policy of course for a couple decades has been we don't negotiate with terrorists, but this is a kidnapped American. Do you expect the U.S. government to stick to that policy privately as well as publicly in this case?

THEODORE KATTOUF:

I suspect the U.S. government will not push the Saudis to meet the demands of the hostage takers and release more killers into the Saudi society.

MARGARET WARNER:

So what would you say, ambassador, is the overall aim of this group or these groups?

THEODORE KATTOUF:

I think all along, al-Qaida, Osama bin Laden have been gunning for the Saudi leadership. The reason in part they came after us is because we were seen and are continued to be seen as a major prop to the leaderships in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. And these people are believing that they have the legitimacy and authority to rule on the Arabian Peninsula where the two most holy places in Islam are, Mecca and Medina they see the leadership in Saudi Arabia as illegitimate, corrupt so, they're coming after both of us.

MARGARET WARNER:

And Mr. Mohamedi, the foreign workers particularly in the oil industry are a particular target, and explain why.

FAREED MOHAMEDI:

Well, I think that if they're going after the regime and you go after oil, then you're striking a blow at the regime. The oil workers are important for the oil production. But they're not critical for, you're not going to see a disruption of the oil production in the short run. There may be longer term consequences in terms of service workers who work for developing new capacity, and that is a big issue right now, whether Saudi Arabia can develop its capacity.

But I think it affects the oil issue in two ways. One is the Saudis have been trying to regain their credibility as the ultimate producers of last resort. 9/11 and all this discussion about whether they have the capacity or not, plus now under attack from these terrorist groups, call that into question again. So it's going to be a lingering issue in the oil market.

MARGARET WARNER:

So you're saying it's both creating an uncertainty, but it's also politically damaging to the Saudi world family.

FAREED MOHAMEDI:

They're protecting the heart of the economy.

MARGARET WARNER:

But now all the reports are that so far foreign workers around leaving in large numbers, even when the U.S. government calls on them to do so. Why?

FAREED MOHAMEDI:

Well, I think it depends. I think there's a group of workers that have been there for a long time, have long-term stake, and they are going to stick it out. Then there are newer workers who I think to, from what we've heard, are more nervous about the situation. The problem is that the older workers are retiring, so replacing them is going to be a major cost for the oil industry, for the government, et cetera.

MARGARET WARNER:

Mr. Ambassador, does it surprise you that the U.S. government State Department is calling actually calling on all American workers to leave Saudi Arabia? I mean, is that what the U.S. government really wants, given the message that would send about giving in to demand these terrorists?

THEODORE KATTOUF:

Given the rules under which the U.S. government operates these days in terms of warning citizens of threats, I think the administration had little choice but to ask all Americans to leave the kingdom. But you're exactly right, Margaret. The situation is that if all of them were to leave Saudi Arabia, this would leave gaps in major industries and services. And we don't want that either, we don't want to be contributing to the destabilization of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. So the best we can do is advise people, and then people have to make their own choice.

MARGARET WARNER:

So Brian Jenkins, how aggressively are the, is the Saudi government going after this group, Crown Prince Abdullah gave a televised speech late today, we didn't get it in, but in which he vowed that the terrorists were going to see greater security forces they've ever seen. Are they really serious about this?

BRIAN JENKINS:

I think they have been becoming more serious over the past 13 months. I think the real wake up call was the series of bombings that took place, beginning in May of 2003, and continuing up to the most recent attacks that we've seen in Riyadh. So they have certainly been galvanized to action.

Now, at the same time, this is a very conservative cautious government, and they're moving very, very carefully, because it's their tradition, but also because I don't think anyone can be absolutely certain about the depth of disaffection among Saudis themselves. We know that Saudi recruits went off to join al-Qaida, we know that there were financial contributors in the kingdom for the efforts of this global Jihad. The Saudi government does not want to take precipitant action that will provoke a greater resistance to the government, pushing people into al-Qaida's tent.

Moreover, the government does not want to be seen as an instrument of the United States, which is understandably urging greater action. The Saudi government sees this as a long-term contest in which it's as important to out mobilize the terrorists as it is to outgun them.

MARGARET WARNER:

Do you mean out mobilize them in society, for instance urging the clerics to side with this statement inside with the government, rather than siding with the Islamists.

BRIAN JENKINS:

That's exactly the point. Now the terrorists also sense that they may have a constituency which they are trying to galvanize to action through these attacks which are inspirational, which are demonstrations of the kingdom's vulnerability. They are trying to develop that into a broader resistance movement. This is very much a contest for people's minds and beliefs. It's not simply a matter of how many people can be arrested or how many Westerners can be killed or how many terrorist actions can be carried out.

MARGARET WARNER:

Mr. Ambassador, how effectively do you think the Saudi government is pursuing this contest of minds and hearts as Brian Jenkins just described it?

THEODORE KATTOUF:

Well, I think Brian Jenkins is exactly right, it is a contest. And the Saudi leadership is cautious in any case, but certainly they're going to weigh each step they take right now. Americans always like to think problems have solutions. This one may have no quick solution.

MARGARET WARNER:

But there is great appreciator in Saudi society for reforms, for liberalization, for, they don't call it Westernization. But is that the direction the Saudi government needs to move, in your view, or does that potentially open them up to greater vulnerabilities?

THEODORE KATTOUF:

They need to move in that direction and that potentially opens them up to greater vulnerabilities; the answer is both. But I think they have to modernize, they have to open up the system more. Half of the Saudi population is under 18 years old, and those young people have, and those come out of Saudi schools often come out without the skills they need for a modern economy. And it's a big problem, and a lot of them are living with their families, they're not living productive lives. They're not feeling inspired, they're not feeling that they're important in Saudi society. And they could easily become disaffected. And the Saudi government has to address, I think, particularly the educational system. They've made some moves in that direction, they've done some positive things, but I think this is not going to be something they can overcome in a year or two.

MARGARET WARNER:

Ambassador Kattouf, Brian Jenkins, Mr. Mohamedi, thank you all three.