State Dept. official: If Putin wins Ukraine, tyrants ‘will get hungry’ with aspirations

Amna Nawaz:

The Biden administration today unveiled a new set of sanctions against Russia to punish it further for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began two years ago tomorrow.

Geoff Bennett:

The sanctions are also meant to target Russia for the death of anti-corruption activist and politician Alexei Navalny. He died in an Arctic prison one week ago from a cause still unknown.

Earlier today, I spoke with U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland about the state of the war two years on.

Victoria Nuland, welcome back to the "NewsHour."

Victoria Nuland, U.S. Undersecretary of State For Political Affairs: Thank you, Geoff. Great to be with you.

Geoff Bennett:

As the world prepares to mark the second anniversary of Putin's Ukraine invasion, Ukraine's counteroffensive has stalled. Ukraine lost a brutal, monthslong battle for Avdiivka. Additional funding, as you well know, is stuck in the GOP-led House. And Russia is showing no signs of quitting.

What is the outlook for Ukraine right now?

Victoria Nuland:

Well, Geoff, you are not wrong that these are tough days for Ukraine.

And, as you said, they have had to come out of Avdiivka. When I was out there a couple of weeks ago, there were soldiers on the front line with only 20 bullets a day to defend themselves. And this is why the administration is pushing so hard for this additional $60 billion to support Ukraine, because the Ukrainians need it if they're going to continue to defend the line and push back the Russians.

But with this money, we actually think that they can make some serious gains in 2024, particularly by enhancing some of the asymmetric techniques that they have been using. But we need to support them, just as the Europeans have just given them an additional $54 billion.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, so far, House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to bring up a Senate-passed package, at least for a quick vote.

Is there a way for the administration to get that much-needed aid to Ukraine, absent action from Congress?

Victoria Nuland:

Geoff, I would just start by reminding that this bill passed overwhelmingly in the Senate; 70 senators supported it.

And they supported it because they understand that, as much as this is about Ukraine's ability to survive as a democratic state, it is also about the larger principles of a free and open international order that benefits the United States, and that, if we don't stand with Ukraine, if Putin wins here, then dictators and tyrants all over the world will take note and will get hungry with their own territorial aspirations.

So we need to pass this money, and the American people broadly understand that. So we are hopeful that they will tell their members when they're home during this recess how much they support this money, and we are confident that it will pass.

Geoff Bennett:

President Biden today announced more than 500 sanctions on Russia. This is the largest tranche since the conflict started.

Is this a tacit admission that the previous sanctions haven't worked, what with Russia's military industrial complex up and running and seemingly drawing on limitless supplies and support from its authoritarian allies?

Victoria Nuland:

Well, let me start with your premise, Geoff, that previous sanctions haven't worked.

Russia has become a pariah state around the world, thrown out of the international banking system, and now so desperate for weapons that it has to go to countries like Iran and North Korea to get them. But those Russians are wily, and they have over the last six months found ways to evade sanctions, but we have also got smarter about how to hurt them, and that's why this package is so massive.

It looks at punishing sanctions evaders. It looks at closing down further Russia's access to credit and finance. It also punishes for the death of the leading opposition figure, Navalny, at the hands of Putin and his prison guards, and it sanctions those involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children into Russia.

So it is a massive package, and partly it's because we have got to staunch this evasion and because we have far more targets now, as we understand better how to staunch the Russian industrial complex.

Geoff Bennett:

Why should it, though, take an event like the death of Alexei Navalny to prompt these types of sanctions? Couldn't some of this have happened two years ago, at least to stop the flow of technology into Russia's military industrial complex that goes into building the kinds of missiles that kill Ukrainians?

Victoria Nuland:

Geoff, we did sanction technology from around the world as — two years ago, just before and after the invasion.

What has happened is that Russia has found ways to evade those sanctions, going to third markets or buying, for example, a billion washing machines, and then taking out the computer chips that we have denied them in other ways.

So, this is a tightening of those sanctions as Russia adjusts, and we're confident that they're going to have a very profound impact. But the other thing that's happening, and this is quite worrying, is that Russia has been willing to intensify its economic and security relationship with China, in fact, becoming increasingly dependent on China.

And that is how it is fueling its war machine. It's also been willing to put the vast majority of its own economic stimulus into the war effort, so it is starving Russia and Russians of investment in education in their own future, all in service of Putin's imperial ambitions.

So, what we are having to do is adjust as well.

Geoff Bennett:

As we wrap up our conversation, you said you're confident that the aid package will ultimately pass Congress.

There is this question, though, of what good would additional aid do, especially among those who view this as a war of attrition and point to the slow progress of Ukraine's counteroffensive. If the U.S. continues to provide Ukraine the same sorts of weapons, why wouldn't that lead to a further stalemate?

Victoria Nuland:

First of all, this aid is going to allow Ukraine to do four things.

It's going to allow them to continue to fight. It's going to allow them to build a highly deterrent military of the future, so that they will increasingly be able to stand on their own feet in security terms. It's going to help them recover and get more of their own people home and rebuild their tax base, so that we have — there's less economic support that they need from the rest of the world.

And it's also going to help them reform and become a more European, democratic country. With this money on the battlefield, first and foremost, it will ensure Ukraine can hold the line. But, as I said, they're getting increasingly proficient at asymmetric weapons.

And I expect, as I said in Kyiv a couple of weeks ago when I was there, that if we can provide this support, Putin's going to get some very nasty surprises on the battlefield in 2024, in addition to Ukraine being able to really rebuild a 21st century military.

Geoff Bennett:

Victoria Nuland is the undersecretary of state for political affairs at the U.S. State Department.

Thank you for your time and for your insights this evening.

Victoria Nuland:

Thank you, Geoff.