Taiwan fears U.S. ouster of Maduro may embolden China to mimic the move

Amna Nawaz:

China removed its top army general last weekend in what many analysts see as a move to cement loyalty to President Xi Jinping.

Geoff Bennett:

It is rattling Taiwan and one of its islands, Kinmen, that is much closer to China than Taiwan, amid already heightened fears that the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro could embolden China to mimic the move against Taipei.

Special correspondent Patrick Fok has more.

Patrick Fok:

In the distance, Xiamen, part of mainland China. On a day as clear as this, you can see just how close it is. This is Kinmen, an archipelago administered by Taipei, even though the main island of Taiwan lies more than 100 miles away. Its proximity to the mainland has put it on the front line of cross-strait confrontations.

These anti-landing spikes are remnants of its Cold War defenses decades ago to prevent an amphibious invasion by China.

Tung Sen-Pao, Kinmen County Councillor (through interpreter):

Practically speaking, its use is now limited. Warfare has changed considerably. What remains on this beach is a stark reminder of the battlefield.

Patrick Fok:

Tung Sen-Pao is a local counselor. He's lived here his whole life and, like many people from Kinmen, is numb to communist aggression. Only weeks ago, China launched some of its largest ever live-fire war games, assimilating a blockade of Taiwan.

In recent years, Beijing's ramped up its military muscle against the island, which it considers its own, but has stopped short of invading. Since the shock capture of Venezuela's leader, some believe that could change.

Tung Sen-Pao (through interpreter):

It's quite possible that one day China might adopt a similar approach or methodology to wage war, directly targeting Taiwan's capital or presidential office.

Patrick Fok:

Washington's operation in Caracas drew swift condemnation from China, calling it a violation of international law.

Sun Lei, Deputy Permanent Chinese Representative to the United Nations (through interpreter): The U.S. has placed its own power above multilateralism and military actions above diplomatic efforts, posing a grave threat to peace and security in Latin America, the Caribbean and even internationally.

Patrick Fok:

But the rate has also drawn comparisons at home in China on social media, with many commentators saying it offers a blueprint for Beijing to take Taiwan. The prospect of a strike may not be far from its sights.

2027 is widely cited by military analysts and government officials as a critical milestone for China's ambitions regarding Taiwan. U.S. intelligence believes that's when President Xi Jinping has instructed Chinese forces to be capable of what's termed a strategic decisive victory over the island.

But there's another school of thought on how the Trump administration's show of force might make Beijing reassess its designs on reunification.

Wang Ting-Yu is a Taiwan legislator and believes America's decisive operation in Venezuela may act as a deterrent. He says, if China had the ability to pull off something similar, it would have done so a long time ago.

Wang Ting-Yu, Taiwanese Parliament Member:

China has intention. They are willing to do this from a long time, they try to invade Taiwan, annex Taiwan. There is a gap between your ambition, your intention and your ability.

Patrick Fok:

Still, China's military capabilities are growing. Over the past decade, average annual spending on defenses has risen by about $100 billion. Taiwan's government, meanwhile, has proposed to beef up its own forces by nearly $40 billion per year to counter the China threat.

But it's been blocked by the legislature, controlled by an opposition that favors closer ties with Beijing.

Wang Ting-Yu:

We need to do more to enhance our self-defense capability, to enhance multilateral cooperation to deter China's ambition. I think that will be the true lesson we learn from this.

Patrick Fok:

In Kinmen, life goes on regardless. By night, this group of islanders gathers to enjoy the most American of pastimes, among them, teachers, soldiers and ordinary workers, with little concern about the powerful geopolitical forces surrounding them.

Chen Sui Lien, Kinmen Resident (through interpreter):

What happens will happen. There's nothing you can do. Whatever we say can't change the situation.

Patrick Fok:

Whatever their fate, they hope this place remains a baseball diamond and not a battlefield.

For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Patrick Fok in Kinmen, Taiwan.