Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Democratic concerns about Biden’s poll numbers

Geoff Bennett:

For more on the presidential race and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's trip to Washington, it's time for Politics Monday with Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Hello, hello.

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Hello.

Geoff Bennett:

So, Donald Trump's support now tops 50 percent in Iowa. Let's put a marker on that and talk about the Democrats, because we just heard all about the Republicans.

Tam, you were just in New Hampshire. And Dean Phillips, with his long-shot primary challenge, he's now saying that Joe Biden presents a threat to democracy? What's that all about?

Tamara Keith:

Well, he — the threat that he says Joe Biden presents is that Joe Biden could lose to Donald Trump. And he says that Trump is a uniquely dangerous figure in our history. So it's a secondary argument, But — or two steps removed kind of argument.

Phillips is out there saying that basically Joe Biden's poll numbers aren't great, which is a true fact, and that somehow he is the solution. What he says is that, in polling, Donald Trump versus a generic Democrat performs better — the generic Democrat performs better than Joe Biden.

And Dean Phillips then says, you can call me generic if you want to. So his argument is basically that, in a race between a ham sandwich and Donald Trump, a ham sandwich could do quite well, and he's happy to be the ham sandwich. But it's really not clear that that is an argument that would hold up going beyond New Hampshire.

And the thing with New Hampshire is, Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. So on election night, when the results come in, Dean Phillips, his whole theory of the case, his plan is that he will win New Hampshire. But what is winning if the incumbent president isn't on the ballot?

So I asked him that. What do you expect the headline to be? He said: "Wow."

(Laughter)

Geoff Bennett:

OK.

Well, meantime, President Biden is increasingly calling out Donald Trump by name. And I'm told by Democratic officials that we should expect more of that, that President Biden should not just target Donald Trump by name, but that he's also going to point to what he sees as extremist policies about abortion, for instance, and what's happening in Texas.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Absolutely.

Look, if we're going to talk about the poll numbers, it is true that Joe Biden is in a world of hurt for an incumbent president going into a presidential year, opinions about his handling of the presidency very low, lower than even I think where Donald Trump was at this point going into 2020. Opinions about the economy, opinions about who do a better job on the economy, all those are terrible numbers for the incumbent.

He can't afford this to be a race that right now is about him. It has to be about the stake — what's at stake if Donald Trump is elected. At the same time, I was just, before I got here, was looking through the new Wall Street Journal poll which asked the question, were you better off, did you think the policies of Trump or Biden made you better off?

And, for Trump, by a 12-point margin, people said they were better off with Trump policies. For Biden, it was minus-30. So, people feel as if they were — life was better when Donald Trump was president for them.

The challenge then for Biden and his campaign is to make the case, much like Nikki Haley did there, that actually things weren't that great. Remember the chaos when he was president, and, also, they're not going to be any better, because, as you point out on the issues like abortion — that wasn't on the ballot in 2020. It is now.

January 6 hadn't happened when people were voting. It's — this is going to be the seminal issue in 2024. Is it about things that are happening to people right now that they feel upset about, which they will blame the president for, or is it about things that they think will happen in the future with a Donald Trump that has already been president and they know about, but he's not in front of their face every moment?

Geoff Bennett:

Looking ahead to New Hampshire, because President Biden has decided to skip New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, his name isn't on the ballot, which means that there is this grassroots effort to mount a write-in campaign. How's that going?

Tamara Keith:

Right.

There is a dispute between the Democratic National Committee and the state. And in the end, New Hampshire gets snubbed. Joe Biden isn't on the ballot. But there is this write-in campaign, the write-in Biden campaign. And it is extremely grassroots. I was on a Zoom call with a group — a county Democratic Party group that was talking to one of the organizers of this grassroots effort.

They're there. They're looking for volunteers to go stand outside of every single polling place with a sign that says, write in Biden. There are 21 candidates for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire because New Hampshire is quirky and ballot access is pretty easy.

And so they have to not only convince people, like, even though the president isn't on the ballot, you should go through the trouble of voting, and then also that you should look past all 21 people, find the empty bubble, bubble that in, and then write Joe Biden. The thing they do have going for them is that Joe Biden is easy to spell.

(Laughter)

Geoff Bennett:

That's true.

Amy Walter:

That is true, although his campaign can't do this work.

Tamara Keith:

Oh, his campaign is very much not involved in this. This is not their thing. They are very happy continuing to keep New Hampshire not in the conversation.

But these New Hampshire — and it's like the establishment, the Democratic establishment of New Hampshire who feel snubbed. They are out there to prove New Hampshire's value, and they're also out there to try to prove that Joe Biden does have enthusiasm, because if he were to lose or not perform well, then all of the stuff that Amy just talked about, the narrative, if you will, would be about weakness.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

Amy, ever since President Biden said in that fund-raiser last week that he's not sure if he'd be running if Donald Trump wasn't also in this race…

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

… let's say Donald Trump's candidacy collapses for whatever reason, and President Biden decides to hang up his cleats. He says, look, the premise for my campaign isn't what it used to be. I'm going to pass the torch.

What would that do to the Democratic nominating process?

Amy Walter:

That is an excellent question, because, right now, so many deadlines have already passed to get on the ballot in certain states. And so you're really — I guess you could maybe move some of the filing deadlines, get people on the ballot.

A lot of this depends on, this hypothetical, when he makes that decision. Now, at the end of the day, it's the delegates at the convention. It's a convention that ultimately nominates the president and vice president, if that were to come down to that point. But I think we're getting to the place now where, if you are the Democratic Party, you have this opportunity.

New Hampshire is going to be a test case, the opportunity to say if you don't really want to see Biden on the ticket, which voters in polling, Democratic voters, have been saying they'd like a different candidate. Are they going to pick somebody they don't really know very well, don't know much about to send a message? And if so, will that message be received by Joe Biden?

New Hampshire has been notorious for taking incumbent presidents and embarrassing them, George H.W. Bush being the most recent with the challenge against that candidacy from Pat Buchanan, and, obviously, Lyndon Johnson, who soon after he almost lost the primary, ended up announcing he wasn't running for reelection.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, thank you for indulging that thought experiment.

(Laughter)

Tamara Keith:

Yes, it was a thought experiment.

Geoff Bennett:

We didn't get to talk about President Zelenskyy's visit to Washington tomorrow, but we will have extensive coverage of that on this program tomorrow.

Amy Walter:

Of course.

Geoff Bennett:

Good to see you both.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.

Tamara Keith:

Thanks.