Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Iowa and the start of the Republican nominating process

Geoff Bennett:

Let's dive back into the big political story of the night. That's the Iowa caucuses and the official start of the Republican nominating process.

For analysis, we're joined by Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, Tamara Keith of NPR, and Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa and Iowa PBS. Kay is in Des Moines tonight.

And, Kay, we will start with you.

What has this final day of campaigning entailed for the candidates, and what has been the impact so far of the snow and these bone-chilling temperatures there?

Kay Henderson, News Director, Radio Iowa:

Well, that is the big question, because the caucuses begin in just a couple of hours, and we don't yet know whether it will be a determining factor in dampening turnout.

I did talk to some Republican Party officials today, and they expect turnout to still be robust, primarily because of the organizing that's been going on, on the ground by the Trump campaign and the DeSantis campaign, and perhaps these late deciders who are jumping on the Nikki Haley bandwagon.

There was a Des Moines Register/NBC News poll that came out this weekend, and it showed she was now in second place among likely caucus-goers. The question is just if those likely caucus-goers are going to actually become caucus-goers.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, that poll that Kay mentioned, that raised a lot of eyebrows, because, as she mentioned, Nikki Haley is now — at least according to the poll, was second to Trump, but above DeSantis.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

That's right. That's right.

Geoff Bennett:

When you looked at those numbers, what did you see?

Amy Walter:

Well, Kay's exactly right. It's — likely doesn't always mean definitely going to show up, especially when it's 35-below windchill.

And, in fact, the one thing that really popped in that poll, when they asked voters, how enthusiastic are you about your candidate, not surprising, 49 percent of Trump voters say, I'm very enthusiastic; 23 percent of DeSantis voters say that. For Haley voters, only 9 percent said they're extremely enthusiastic.

Now, a vote's a vote, whether it's enthusiastic or not. But, usually, the more enthusiastic you are about your candidate, the more likely you're going to want to brave that weather. And Kay also made a point too that, when it comes to organizing, the Trump campaign was there early and has really — much different than, say, in 2016, is much better organized on the ground.

And the DeSantis campaign and his super PAC have spent months and millions of dollars organizing there. So, when it comes to the who's going to get the people out piece, sometimes, having that organization is going to be the difference between a few points on one end of the final number or not.

GEOFF BENNETT:

Right.

You raise an interesting point, because, Tam, enthusiasm is one thing. But ground game, campaign infrastructure is something entirely different. Do traditional models of campaigning, especially for Republicans, does it even matter? Does it have the same utility in the Trump era?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

You know, in 2016, former President — or — former President Trump, he campaigned in Iowa by bringing a helicopter to the Iowa State Fair. He didn't follow the rules of Iowa. And he came in second. And he became president of the United States. And he has only gotten more popular with base voters and with Iowa voters since then.

But his campaign, as Kay said, has built an organization. They are doing the ground game thing. All of these rallies that he's been having aren't just called rallies. They're called commit to caucus events. They have had these videos up on the screen showing people how to caucus, imploring them to caucus.

And you saw him out there saying, like, even if you're dying, go caucus before you die, this is that important,which is to say, he is playing the game, even though he is this dominant force, in part because his campaign knows that they need him to dominate the caucuses. They need him to dominate these early primaries and caucuses, so that the race is basically over before his court issues become even bigger issues.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Kay, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, who's backing Ron DeSantis, she is trying to raise expectations for Donald Trump.

She said: "I think it's going to be bad for President Trump if he doesn't come in over 50. He's not meeting expectations that the media and the polls have been putting out for the past several months."

It's clear why she's doing that. She's in the DeSantis camp. But does she have a point? Is there a bar that Donald Trump needs to meet?

Kay Henderson:

Well, we could go back to the last century, and Bob Dole won these caucuses by 12 or 13 percent.

But the Trump campaign, I think, is aiming for something obviously a little bit more generous than that. The polls show that his lead was 28 percent. But, obviously, the governor is trying to make the case that, if he doesn't have the support of a little more than a plurality, at least half of Iowa Republicans, what kind of signal does that send to the rest of the country, that maybe Iowa Republicans were open to a different kind of candidate than Donald Trump?

And that should send a message, she argues, to the rest of the country that, take a look at these other candidates.

Geoff Bennett:

What about Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis? How strong of a showing do they have to put up tonight to justify staying in the race?

Amy Walter:

Right.

I think, for Ron DeSantis, who's put everything into this race, the money, the infrastructure, he has the endorsements, not coming in second place would really just be a death knell to his campaign, very hard for him to make the case that he should go on.

Now, look, if he comes in a close second, and this is — and it is a lot closer than, say, the polls suggest it will be, then he can make the case that, you know what, it should be the two of us going one-on-one, rather than Nikki Haley versus Donald Trump.

For Nikki Haley, a close third is enough, I think, of a story because we know she's polling so well in New Hampshire. Remember, at this point, even DeSantis is not polling very well in New Hampshire. He's not spending any money in New Hampshire. He's not polling very well in South Carolina either, which is the next state up.

Geoff Bennett:

Right.

Amy Walter:

Nevada has a primary, but it's — we don't need to get into the weeds why that…

Geoff Bennett:

We will talk about that later.

Amy Walter:

Yes, that's a whole other problem.

Tamara Keith:

We got time on that.

Amy Walter:

We don't have time.

(LAUGHTER)

Amy Walter:

But the bottom line is, even in South Carolina, at this point, Trump is dominating.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, the Republicans have spent $123 million just in ads alone in Iowa. What do the numbers tell us when you dig deep, Tam?

Tamara Keith:

Well, what really stands out to me is that Ron DeSantis is the one who bet it all on Iowa, who's been competing hard, who's basically moved to the state.

But in terms of ad spending, him — Ron DeSantis and his super PACs have not spent the most money in Iowa. In fact, Nikki Haley and her super PAC have spent more, like $2 million more, but, still, they have spent more than Ron DeSantis. And a lot of that has come in the last couple of months as she has surged and basically got more money through fund-raising.

And then Trump has spent about $18 million. So Haley spent 37 and her super PACs, DeSantis 35, Trump at 18. But he can just have a rally and 1,000 people will show up, while Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, mostly Ron DeSantis, are going county by county by county, the Machine Shed and Pizza Ranch, and they're getting 150 people at a time.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes. Yes.

Kay, we have about a minute left. What are you going to be watching for tonight?

Kay Henderson:

Results in Dubuque County. That's a county that Trump barely won last time around in 2016. And DeSantis and Haley have both spent a lot of time there over the past few weeks.

I will be looking at Linn County, the Cedar Rapids area. Donald Trump finished third there. Both of the DeSantis and Haley campaigns have spent a lot of time there. And then, if you look back at 2022, Kim Reynolds' victory as Iowa governor was really fueled by just an overwhelming majority of wins in rural Iowa.

Those are areas that Ted Cruz did well in, in 2016. So, if Donald Trump starts rolling up numbers early in some of the small counties, that would be a good sign for the Trump campaign.

Geoff Bennett:

Thank you all. Great conversation.

Kay Henderson, Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, have a good night.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.