Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on midterm voter enthusiasm

Geoff Bennett:

With fewer than 100 days to go until the midterms, both parties are gearing up for a combative and expensive battle for control of Congress.

With more on what comes next, we're joined now by our Politics Monday duo, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

So we are officially inside 100 days until the midterms. Are you excited?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Oh, so excited.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Can't contain it.

Geoff Bennett:

It's palpable, isn't it?

Amy Walter:

Can't contain it. Always.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes, so big picture, what does each party need to do between now and November? And which side has the harder job?

Tam, we will start with you.

Tamara Keith:

I think that they both have hard jobs, actually, though Democrats arguably have an easier job because there is this huge anti-incumbent, anti-establishment mood in the country that they, in theory, can ride.

Republicans need to motivate voters who are not typically motivated in midterm years. President Trump won with a very broad base of people, many of whom only vote in presidential years and possibly only vote for people named Trump.

And so they're trying to figure out how to rebuild their 2024 base in 2026, which is a very different year and has a lot of challenges, including the Iran war and the cost of things and just general voter angst and frustration.

Geoff Bennett:

Amy?

Amy Walter:

Yes, for Democrats or for Republicans?

Geoff Bennett:

For both.

Amy Walter:

Oh, for both.

So I match it up as it's a really a clash between the environment and the structural realities. And the environment benefits Democrats. The president's unpopular. People are upset about inflation. Enthusiasm is a real factor. Democratic voters are much more fired up to go to the polls.

But the structural piece is real, and it's a big challenge for Democrats. There just aren't that many competitive seats held by Republicans in the House, enough for them to be able to win back -- they only need three seats to win back the House. But on the Senate side, they're going to they still have to win in these very dark red states.

And what we're seeing in the polling right now is that, even as the president is unpopular, the Democratic image remains also pretty toxic in those red states. And to me, that's the challenge that Democrats really have. The environment, I don't think, is going to get better for Republicans between now and the election.

Gas prices are going to go up and down. But I think overall voters are pretty pessimistic about the way the president's handling the economy, and that's not going to change. What is going to be interesting as we move from primaries to the general election is, how much this debate within the Democratic Party about who are we, are we Democratic socialists, are we over here on the left, are we here in the center, will that continue to be an issue as we go into the fall campaigns?

Republicans are absolutely going to paint every Democrat as far left. Is that going to work for candidates who don't take those positions? We're going to have to see.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, Democrats aren't helped at all by this latest turmoil surrounding the DNC chair, Ken Martin. And the context here is that he's facing renewed criticism over fresh media reports about fund-raising struggles, internal financial pressures, having to put up the DNC headquarters as collateral to obtain a loan.

There are allegations of this volatile confrontation with staff. He allegedly threw a phone at a young aide. And the reports have revived questions about his leadership at a time when Democrats are obviously trying to rebuild ahead of 2024, the midterms.

So, Tam, Democrats have spent months arguing about how they need this stronger message and what should that message be. They're not helped at all by what's happening right now with the DNC.

Tamara Keith:

Yes, the Democratic National Committee is essentially turfing some of that out to the states. That's where some of that money has gone.

Just to give a picture of the financial situation, when you subtract debt, the Democratic National Committee has negative $2 million. Now, compare all of the Democratic committees and the main super PACs to all of the Republican committees and President Trump's MAGA PAC, and there is a deficit of $700 billion -- sorry -- not billion, million -- $700 million for Democrats.

They are way behind Republicans in fund-raising. Now, what the DNC and all the Democratic committees will say is, yes, but their candidates are raising the money. And, yes, absolutely, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, James Talarico in Texas, they are raising piles of money.

And that is also a reflection, though, the money is following where voter -- where donors think they're making a good investment. They don't think that the DNC is a good investment. If they did, the DNC wouldn't be in a $2 million hole.

Geoff Bennett:

How do you see it, Amy?

Amy Walter:

Yes, and the challenge since the Supreme Court decision on campaign finance makes this chasm even more problematic for Democrats.

Before the Supreme Court decision, that gap would be important, but both of the campaign committees were prohibited from contributing directly to campaigns. And so they both had to spend a lot of their money on overhead essentially. Now they can funnel it directly to the campaigns.

And so what it allows Republicans to do, I think, is to help shore up some of their most vulnerable incumbents or candidates who in years past might have fallen off because they just didn't have enough money to help them. Again, it's not enough to change the political environment.

It just may be enough if you think -- we have talked about sort of shoring up the wall that is protecting them, the seawall from the storm that's coming. This is just a little more cement on that seawall, but it's still going to be tough to hold.

Geoff Bennett:

I like that imagery. We have got about, what, a minute-and-a-half left.

I want to talk to you about the proposed 2028 presidential calendar, again for Democrats. So right now it starts in South Carolina, then it moves to Nevada, then New Hampshire. New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia would all be permitted to hold early contests.

This map looks a lot like the old map. What does it say about Democrats' priorities, Amy?

Amy Walter:

Right now, it says that with Nevada and South Carolina, well, South Carolina first and then Nevada, that they're putting a priority on voters of color early in the process. New Hampshire, Iowa, 90 percent white, those two states, South Carolina, Nevada, not.

However, as we also know, the first two states, while they may not be determinative of who ultimately wins the nomination, they do winnow the field out a lot. And so the kinds of candidates that can appeal in South Carolina and Nevada, which are two very different states in this -- in the same way that Iowa and New Hampshire were.

So all the candidates are going to have to -- I would say, my number one advice to campaigns is to understand all of the rules and delegate math around the map, not just those first two states, because at the end of the day, it's the number of delegates that you win, not just who wins the very first state.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Tam, even as some Democrats have this sort of reckoning about what will the party be, South Carolina going first again in 2028, in much the same way as it did back in 2020 with President Biden, it's because South Carolina has the infrastructure and the voters.

Tamara Keith:

Yes, and South Carolina chooses presidents is -- as the saying goes. It is a state that has a lot of black voters. And black voters, black Democrats tend to be a little bit more conservative than white progressive Democrats in some of these other states.

So it it's just a different electorate there.

Geoff Bennett:

Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, thank you both.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.