Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the GOP's vulnerability in the midterms

Geoff Bennett:

President Trump is back on the campaign trail tonight in Ohio with the midterm elections closing in.

Joining us now to break it down and more is our Politics Monday duo, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

It's always great to see you both.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Glad to be here.

Geoff Bennett:

So the president's going to be in Ohio tonight, and he appears increasingly concerned about rising gas and diesel prices. But rather than acknowledge the impact of the war in Iran, he's blaming the war in Ukraine.

Tam, what do you make of this effort to shift blame for an economic problem that's becoming harder to ignore?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

And he's also trying to solve it by importing diesel from Russia, which seems to be pretty clearly prohibited by laws, including one he just signed. He's getting a lot of bipartisan pushback from Congress on that.

The reality is that the American people blame the president and his policies for high prices, and that is a problem for the president and his party in this midterm year.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, how do you see Republicans calibrating, if at all?

Amy Walter:

Well, listen, they understand that this is a cost of living election. And so what you will hear them talking about in their campaign ads is about ways in which they're trying to bring costs down. Maybe they will be taking on big pharma or insurance, but they will talk about affordability.

A couple of them, of course, have come out and said the war needs to end. We have seen just a handful of incumbents saying that. The thing about the president, too, and he's been going after other people too and blaming -- or going after them, either blaming them for the high costs or just choosing to put his anger and deflecting it there.

And I think what we have is a president who is very good when he is up against one foil. So when he was running against Hillary Clinton, when he was running against Joe Biden, and he could make the election about them, it really helped his numbers, actually, when he was able to shift it over there.

He doesn't have that foil this time around. And he you can see he's really struggling to figure out, how do I make it about something other than me? Meanwhile, voters are saying, we'd like you to spend more time talking about the issues that matter to us, not just the issues that maybe are grabbing your attention at this moment.

Geoff Bennett:

And let's shift our focus to South Carolina, because this is a Senate race that Republicans would and could normally take for granted. It's become surprisingly competitive.

And the war in Iran has emerged as a point of contention, with the Republican in that race, Darline Graham, on the defensive. Take a look at last night's debate.

Annie Andrews (D), South Carolina Senatorial Candidate: Several days after one of those votes, she had the audacity to walk out onto this stage and admit that national security isn't really her thing. South Carolina, if your surgeon said that appendectomies aren't really his thing, would you still hand him a scalpel?

No. So why would we hand Darline Graham a full term in the U.S. Senate?

Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC):

At least I'm honest. If I don't know something, I am glad to say it. And I will say it again tonight. But you have -- you are deceiving the people of South Carolina. You have flip-flopped on everything.

Geoff Bennett:

Republicans spending time and money in South Carolina to defend a seat?

Amy Walter:

Yes. That's right.

Look, this is one of those races that has come up pretty late. First, the Democrat that started the conversation here, Dr. Annie Andrews, got kind of a head start in this race, because, when she was running against the late Lindsey Graham, he is a very polarizing figure, and she was able to raise a lot of money.

So she had a lot of money in the bank, ready to go, she thought, in a campaign against Lindsey Graham. Now that it's Darline Graham, his sister, it is -- she has been able to build up her own name I.D. and message while the Graham campaign was sort of on their back feet, right?

Not a lot of people know anything about Darline Graham. So this has taken a race that, you're right, in any other year, a deep red state like this shouldn't be a problem for Republicans, but because few people know much about Darline Graham, Andrews has had a head start with her fund-raising, and she's been able to communicate, Republicans now have to come in and start spending here.

They cannot take any seat for granted, even a seat as deep red as this.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Tam, on that point, this close to the midterms, the travel schedule says a lot. So President Trump is in Ohio. He's going to head to Alaska, Montana, Arizona, Georgia, and then he heads back to Ohio again.

What does that tell you about the GOP's political vulnerabilities?

Tamara Keith:

Well, it tells me that they are defending a lot of territory that they would rather not be defending. You also have to keep in mind that they are dropping hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas to try to keep Texas red.

And the fact that they have to do that is remarkable. The fact that the president is then having to go to Alaska and Montana, these are not states where Republicans should have to be defending territory, and yet they are. This isn't just a case of like, oh, an unpopular Republican president can only go to red states, so he's going to red states to hold rallies.

In fact, he's going to red states where they are also spending money on the air to try to maintain the Republican control of the Senate.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

And you have got some reporting about those taxpayer-funded Trump ads that were on the air not too long ago.

Tamara Keith:

Like, literally really not too long ago. The president had posted on October 5 that the U.S. government would no longer be paying for those ads, that, instead, MAGA Inc., his super PAC, would pay for them.

These ads are very pro-Trump. They really look like campaign ads. In fact, one is literally a copy of a campaign ad that the campaign had put together in during the 2024 cycle. OK, so he announces on October 5, taxpayers won't be paying for these anymore.

Well, in the intervening week, $10 million of taxpayer funds went to put these ads on the air. So the announcement was not immediate, apparently, and only after a federal judge intervened and put an order in place, a temporary order, the ads finally came off the air.

A White House official confirming that the ads will stop airing finally, but that they missed the judge's deadline by a little bit.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, Tam mentioned a minute ago the Texas Senate race. You have got James Talarico, he's back on the campaign trail after falling ill. He was not seen publicly for a couple of weeks.

Amy Walter:

Right.

Geoff Bennett:

There's all sorts of conspiracy theories about where he was. How does he push back against what is clear misinformation, disinformation without amplifying it?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Well, it seems to me that in this day and age, getting out there as quickly as possible, trying to tell people as much as you can so it doesn't look as if you're hiding something. But people are going to believe what they want to believe as well.

I think the thing about the Texas Senate race, again, it is quite remarkable that we're still -- that we're talking about this state and how much money's been spent, and that the Democrat now has been on the offense for pretty much this entire campaign. This is the first opportunity that Republicans have had to kind of put him back a little bit based on something that was just a rumor that started.

But, fundamentally, Geoff, when you think about where the race for control of Senate goes through, going back to Tam's point, the fact that it really is going through Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa, all states Trump won by double digits, that is the story of the 2026 midterms right there.

Tamara Keith:

And if those states are in play statewide at the Senate level, that means that various House races underneath those further down the ballot are also in play.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, always a pleasure. Thank you both.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.