Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the political impact of the government shutdown

Geoff Bennett:

Well, it is day six of the federal government shutdown and there are no signs of the stalemate ending.

To discuss that and more, we're joined now by our Politics Monday duo. That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

So, as I said, it doesn't seem like anything is going to change soon. The House is out again this week. The Senate is expected to vote again today. That vote is expected to fail.

So, Tam, what could break this logjam?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Probably the most likely thing to break the logjam is some sort of pressure coming to bear. And what I mean is paychecks not going out.

When you get to a point where paychecks aren't going out, in the past shutdown in 2019 — 2018 and 2019, that finally ended in part because TSA agents weren't coming to the office or weren't going to the airport because their paychecks weren't coming through.

So there hasn't been a real forcing mechanism just yet. The public outcry isn't really there. It's obviously a really big deal here in Washington, D.C. It's less of a big deal in other parts of the country at this point. We did see the president today — and this is a little confusing — say that he was negotiating, that they were negotiating with Democrats about health care, which is the issue that Democrats are sort of asking for negotiations on.

The issue, though, is, Democrats on the Hill and Republicans on the Hill who've spoken to my colleagues say there are no negotiations. So maybe the president is saying — maybe the president is spelling out a potential path going forward, but he's spelling out a future path that doesn't currently exist.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, there's some new polling from CBS News and YouGov that shows everyone is getting bad marks for how they're handling this.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

About half of Americans disapprove of how the president and Republicans and how Democrats in Congress are dealing with this. Might public pressure change anything?

Amy Walter:

Well, it's clear, I think as Tam pointed out, that it's still in the theoretical realm right now. And so when it gets into the realistic realm, whether it's TSA agents or whether it's other government services that impact people being cut or stymied, then you may see the pressure coming on.

Right now, Democrats feel heartened by the fact that Republicans are still getting a little bit more of the blame in a lot of these public polls. But to me the bigger question has always been, why do Democrats want to do this and what are they going to try to extract from this process?

A lot of it driven by, as we have talked about before, the ways in which the Democratic base is so frustrated with what they see as a feckless leadership in Washington. When you looked at that CBS poll, though, only about 48 percent of Democrats think today that this is worth it, that the shutdown is worth it, that trying to get concessions from Republicans on health care, that is not yet breaking through to a majority of even Democratic voters.

And so, at the end of the day, if Democrats do end up voting for opening reopening the government by allowing that cloture to happen, then and will the base feel like they got something out of this, or will they feel as if this was yet another fight that Democrats lost to Donald Trump?

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Well, let's talk about the National Guard deployments, because, as we have reported on this program earlier, both the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago have sued the Trump administration to block National Guard troops being deployed to Chicago. The president's plan to do the same in Portland was blocked yesterday by a federal judge.

Tam, based on your reporting, what's the president's endgame? What is he trying to gain by sending in these troops?

Tamara Keith:

The president has talked about wanting to send troops into cities for a long time. He has continued this. I mean, this goes back to when he was on office before during 2020 in the wake of the George Floyd protests. And this is a continuation of that, pushing it further.

Today, though, he was asked if he would invoke the Insurrection Act, which would give him even greater power. And he said he hasn't needed to do that yet. Part of this is having this fight, having this public fight with Democratic cities. And part of it is that there are true believers in the Trump White House, including Stephen Miller, who believe that ICE agents are directly under attack and that the National Guard is needed to protect them.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, we talked so much about the impact on these cities and the Democratic leaders. What's the potential impact, the potential political liability for President Trump with this perceived executive overreach?

Amy Walter:

Yes, well, it is being seen right now when you look — again, just look at that poll that came out from CBS — 58 percent disapprove of sending National Guard into the cities.

This is one of those issues that it's not just that it's polarizing, Republicans absolutely supportive of it, Democrats absolutely against it, but independent voters really do not like what they are seeing with this. And I think that's really what it comes down to.

We have seen over the course of the first term, but certainly in the second term, the president's decision to really target blue cities, states, whether it is with National Guard troops, whether it's cutting funding or holding up funding in those states. It's very clear that his agenda is to make the states that did not vote for him, there's a price to pay for that versus the red states that did.

Geoff Bennett:

And the time that remains, I want to talk about redistricting, because voting apparently kicks off in California today as voters decide the fate of their redistricting measure.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

There are new maps in Texas that are subject to a court hearing. There are fresh efforts by Republicans in Utah and Nebraska to redraw those maps.

Let's talk about California. What does the polling suggest there, how might that go?

(Crosstalk)

Amy Walter:

Yes, the polling right now suggests that the yes campaign, so it would allow the redrawing of these lines to go through, is ahead. But there's still a lot of people who are undecided on this. They haven't heard a lot about this.

So this next month is going to be critically important on persuasion. Donald Trump, not surprisingly, playing a starring role in this in a state where he is deeply unpopular. But for the folks who are trying to defeat this proposition, the issue of fairness, basically overriding an independent commission, letting politicians draw district lines, that's also very unpopular.

So that's where they're going to go in terms of their messaging. Utah is also fascinating. It's one of the few states where Democrats may get an opportunity to expand their reach. This is not exactly a blue state, but the city of Salt Lake City is very Democratic. And this came through a court decision that had been litigated for the last couple of years.

If this new map is approved by the judge, this could give Democrats an opportunity in two districts in Utah.

Geoff Bennett:

More to come.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, our thanks to you both.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.