Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Trump flirting with the idea of the 3rd term

Geoff Bennett :

The government shutdown stretches into its fifth week, and President Trump is once again testing political boundaries, this time by hinting at the possibility of a third term.

For more on that and the other political stories shaping the week, we're joined now by our Politics Monday duo. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Happy Monday.

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Hello.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Hello.

Geoff Bennett :

So Steve Bannon, former presidential aide, ever the provocateur, seems to be deliberately stirring the pot by floating the idea of a third Trump term. The president on Air Force One early this morning said that he'd be open to it. Take a listen.

Donald Trump, President of the United States: I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever. It's very terrible. I have my best numbers. If you read it…

Question:

You're not ruling out a third term?

Donald Trump:

Am I not ruling it out? You will have to tell me. All I can tell you is that we have a great — a great group of people, which they don't.

Geoff Bennett :

Amy, why does the president keep flirting with this idea of a third term, despite the Constitution's clear limit against it?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Well, remember, this is a candidate who in 2016 said, I alone can fix this. And this has been the ongoing mantra of his first term, but even more so his second term. And, quite frankly, all of the institutions and guardrails that theoretically would have prevented many of the things that Donald Trump is actually going ahead and doing right now have failed to do their job.

And so there's every reason for him to believe that, indeed, even though the Constitution explicitly lays out the fact that a president cannot have more than two terms, that there is a work-around to this.

Geoff Bennett :

And it seems to be another sign, Tam, that he does not view the law as a meaningful constraint on his power or authority. What is he trying to do, project permanence here?

Tamara Keith:

Let's just talk about a purely political reason he might be doing this, because the second he admits that he's not going to be in office in 2028, then he becomes a lame-duck. And so much of his power right now exists because people believe he's powerful. And if he loses some of that shine because, oh, he's a lame-duck, then that becomes a problem for him more broadly.

But, as Amy says, this isn't just one time. This is repeatedly. Earlier this year, I was on Air Force One. He had just again flirted with the idea about running in 2028 and staying. And I asked him, so will you leave? Can you guarantee that you will leave office on January 20, 2029? And he said, next Question.

So he is leaving this out there. He isn't ruling it out. And people are left to wonder, is he joking like he sometimes is? Or is he serious? And it's one of those things where you may not know until it's too late.

Amy Walter:

It's also a reminder that the party is Donald Trump and Donald Trump is the party.

Tamara Keith:

Yes.

(Crosstalk)

Amy Walter:

And so whether I will be here or whether it will be somebody else, there is no Republican who will be in office at a point in the near future that won't be coming from this part of the party, the Trump party.

Geoff Bennett :

Well, right. I was going to ask you, does this talk of forever Trump underscore how little space there might be for the next generation of leaders?

Amy Walter:

Absolutely.

Geoff Bennett :

The part of this clip that we didn't play was where he was talking about, well, J.D. Vance might run against Marco Rubio and we will see what happens.

Amy Walter:

Right. Right, that there's no room for anybody that's outside of this. And it's understandable. I mean, the party itself has very few of those voices left, at least from the before times.

The question Is, which candidate's going to come out of future times that is not going to look like, say, a George W. Bush era Republican, but that's going to be some amalgamation of a person who was sort of raised in the MAGA era, but is taking it further into the 21st century?

Geoff Bennett :

Well, this is another Monday where we're talking about the government shutdown and nothing seems to have significantly changed, except for the fact that SNAP benefits are going to expire on November 1. And the federal government, the White House says there's not going to be a specific bailout for folks.

Is that a pressure point that could fundamentally change the dynamics here?

Tamara Keith:

It is a pressure point. And there are many pressure points. That is a big one. Democrats are very loudly pointing out that the initial contingency plan that the government, the Trump administration put out called for a reserve fund to be used to keep paying those SNAP benefits.

Now the administration is saying they can't do that. And so that is — if people can't get food, there are already stronger, greater demands on food banks and other sources of support because the government shutdown is dragging on and people don't have pay. There are a number of pressure points that are coming.

Another thing that happens on November 1 is open enrollment, where people will go out and buy health plans or shop for health plans and they're likely to get some sticker shock. That's another pressure point that Democrats — I mean, that's the whole issue Democrats have been talking about during this shutdown. That will be another thing.

But the chaplain, the Senate chaplain, was basically praying to end the shutdown today at the start of the session. And that might be as effective as any of these other things because there just really is no movement and President Trump is out of the country all this week.

Amy Walter:

That's what I was going to say. What seems to be very clear and it's been clear from the very beginning is this is not going to happen unless Donald Trump is in the room, unless the president is sitting down with the leaders of the House and the Senate to make something happen.

The fact that he has gone this week does speak volumes about whether or not this ends. But we have been saying now for the last it feels like 300 days, but the last three weeks of this shutdown that what is going to end it is when real pain starts to hit a broad swathe of the population.

People who are federal employees have been feeling this pain for quite some time, those who've been furloughed or laid off. Now it's going to be some of the most vulnerable among us who could feel that pain. And we're starting to see it in local press. The front page of The Denver Post, for example, the other day, had the governor of Colorado asking people to donate to food banks with the expectation that SNAP benefits will be delayed.

Geoff Bennett :

Yes.

Well, it's one week before Election Day in statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia. Both states, they're set to elect new governors. We have got the mayoral race in New York. What are you watching for?

Tamara Keith:

I am watching energy prices. It has become an issue in Virginia and New Jersey and in Georgia in some public utility commissioner races. This is something that both parties are trying to make something of and some Democrats I have spoken to see focusing on energy prices as a potential path forward, depending on how these races turn out.

Geoff Bennett :

We have also got the California vote on the redistricting referendum?

Amy Walter:

We do. We do.

Geoff Bennett :

OK.

Amy Walter:

And that one, right now, polling suggests it's pretty far ahead and is likely to pass, which means Democrats are going to get an opportunity now to basically negate the gains that Republicans are getting from a Texas map.

The other thing that I'm going to look really closely at is the coalition that turns out to vote. Donald Trump, especially in a state like New Jersey, was able to make significant inroads thanks to support he was getting from traditionally Democratic groups like voters of color. Are those voters going to show up this time and are they going to vote for Republicans? I'm going to look for that.

Geoff Bennett :

My favorite election cliche, it all comes down to turnout.

Amy Walter:

As always, always.

Tamara Keith:

On Election Day.

(Laughter)

Geoff Bennett :

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, appreciate you both.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.