The challenges Ukraine faces as counteroffensive slowly regains territory from Russians

Amna Nawaz:

Kim Jong-un's rare trip outside of North Korea for an expected meeting with Vladimir Putin will focus in part on ammunition sales for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Fighting remains fierce, especially in Southern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces are trying to recapture occupied territory.

Nick Schifrin has returned to Ukraine, and he joins me now from the south.

Nick, it's good to see you.

You're in Zaporizhzhia, which is one of the largest cities in Southern Ukraine. What is the state of that counteroffensive there?

Nick Schifrin:

We have come here to Zaporizhzhia to really see the epicenter of the counteroffensive.

Russia still occupies about 20 percent of all of Ukraine. You can see that territory in pink there. Ukraine is focused on two axes. The main one is just south of here through occupied territory to the key city of Melitopol on the way to Crimea. And the second one is in the east in Bakhmut, where the war's largest battle continues.

And the challenge is great. Those dots that you see right there, those are Russian defenses built over many months, tens of thousands of mines, rows upon rows of concrete barriers, and vehicle traps.

Now, soldiers have broken through minefields just south of here in Robotyne, giving them high ground, and Verbove. But they have not breached the second line. It cannot be overstated how important this moment is. U.S. officials tell me that getting money through Congress that is key for Ukraine in the next few weeks and maintaining American and European support will largely depend on whether Ukraine can prove it can make goals, it can achieve its goals in this counteroffensive, really in the next month before the winter sets in.

As one official put it to me, Amna, the clock is not Ukraine's friend.

Amna Nawaz:

Nick, when it comes to that strategy and the way forward, are there disagreements, especially between Washington and Kyiv?

Nick Schifrin:

I would say there were disagreements between Washington and Kyiv, especially last month.

Ukraine's strategy has been to deploy troops and Western tanks equally between the south and the east. The idea was to see if they could find different weaknesses in the Russian line to exploit.

But some American officials told Ukraine that that would spread Ukrainian troops too thin, that, instead, they should focus on one axis. As one official put it to me, there was a — quote — "fundamental difference of opinion."

Whatever disagreement there was behind the scenes, American officials have pledged public support for Ukraine's military decisions. And it does seem that now Ukraine is massing in the territory to the south of me in Zaporizhzhia, trying to exploit that breach that we talked about before to drive tanks through that they have really been keeping in reserve.

And the goal, of course, is not only to reseize land, but to hold Russian command-and-control outposts and Crimea at risk within range of Ukrainian missiles. But, of course, Russia also sees that, Amna. And defense officials confirmed to me that Russia is reinforcing along the same axis right now.

Amna Nawaz:

So, as we reported earlier, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. What kind of impact could that meeting have on Russia's war in Ukraine?

Nick Schifrin:

A Western military official tells me that the biggest fear is artillery. It's not clear how much artillery North Korea has or what quality it is, but it will help fuel Russia's insatiable appetite for artillery.

The official tells me that Russia fired 10 to 11 million rounds inside Ukraine last year and that now, despite sanctions, Russia is increasing its production capacity of both artillery and tanks. And U.S. officials are concerned that Putin can keep a conflict sustained.

And that is exactly what he indicated today at an event. He said Russia would not stop fighting. He rejected any talk of negotiations with Ukraine. And he said the U.S. would continue to target Russia no matter who won the 2024 elections. Putin's strategy seems to be to wait the West out, which is why, Amna, the United States and more than two dozen countries have just begun to negotiate with Ukraine over long-term security guarantees to try and prove Putin wrong.

Amna Nawaz:

Nick, as you're there talking to folks on the ground, obviously, the war dominates headlines, but what else are Ukrainians focused on right now?

Nick Schifrin:

They're focused on whether the lights and the heat can stay on when Russia begins to hit the electricity grid as winter begins, and they're focused on corruption.

Last week, Oleksii Reznikov, the defense minister resigned. He had been dogged by claims of corruption over procurement and supplies for soldiers. The new defense minister, this man, Rustem Umerov. He has promised an audit of the Ministry of Defense, a new digitized register of conscripts to reduce corruption.

And corruption, Amna, as you know, is really Ukraine's other enemy. And whether the top official and Kyiv or the front-line soldier, they all know, if they don't fight corruption, that morale that has held the country together could really be sacked.

Amna Nawaz:

That is Nick Schifrin reporting from Zaporizhzhia in Southern Ukraine.

Nick, thank you to you and the team. Please travel safely.

Nick Schifrin:

Thanks, Amna.