The factors influencing turkey prices this Thanksgiving

Nick Schifrin:

It is the night before one of the most beloved American traditions, giving thanks, and most likely eating turkey. How much will that bird and all the holiday trimmings cost this year?

"PBS News Hour" digital producer Tim McPhillips recently spoke to a food economist to break it down.

Tim McPhillips:

Inflation tariffs, bird flu, will you be crying foul over the cost of your Thanksgiving feast? Here are three things to know.

One, turkey wholesale prices are up a lot.

David Ortega, Professor of Food Economics and Policy, Michigan State University: We're looking at wholesale prices today being about 40 percent higher than last year.

Tim McPhillips:

David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, says turkey producers are dealing with dueling outbreaks, the first being avian influenza, or bird flu.

David Ortega:

And, on top of that, you have another respiratory virus, AMPV, that has reduced the number of viable eggs and really slowed flock rebuilding.

Tim McPhillips:

The bird flu outbreak that started in 2022 is part of what caused egg prices to skyrocket last winter. And like with chickens, when one turkey tests positive for bird flu, the whole flock must be culled.

David Ortega:

And this year alone, more than two million turkeys have been lost.

Tim McPhillips:

But know this. While farmers have had to beef up on biosecurity on their farms, the turkeys in the store are safe to eat.

David Ortega:

Infected birds do not enter the food supply.

Tim McPhillips:

Two, while wholesale turkey prices are up, turkey retail prices are actually relatively flat.

David Ortega:

Retailer often use whole turkeys as a loss leader.

Tim McPhillips:

That means stores sell the birds below cost to win your business for the rest of your Thanksgiving meal. So grocery stores are locked in a bit of a price war when it comes to whole turkeys, specifically frozen ones.

David Ortega:

Loss leader pricing is very common during the holidays, because it's one of the most effective ways to draw shoppers through the door.

Tim McPhillips:

So despite turkey wholesale prices being up, frozen turkeys are still sometimes less than $1 per pound. And many stores offer a Thanksgiving basket or meal deal, a turkey and all the fixings for a set cost.

David Ortega:

Walmart Thanksgiving basket is priced at the lowest ever since the program started.

Tim McPhillips:

That meal deal has been the source of a political food fight.

Donald Trump, President of the United States: I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night — they have done it for many years — that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25 percent less than Thanksgiving last year.

Tim McPhillips:

But:

David Ortega:

It's also worth pointing out that there are fewer items in that basket. And so it's — you're not comparing apples to apples here.

Tim McPhillips:

Still, these kinds of bundles can be a good way to fill your table. So shop around and check stores mobile apps for the best deals.

Three, the cost of the rest of your Thanksgiving meal is a mixed bag. Grocery prices are up about 25 percent over the past five years and:

David Ortega:

About 2.7 percent higher than they were a year ago.

Tim McPhillips:

Certain foods are up even higher. Going with beef on your table?

David Ortega:

Those prices are record highs right now at the retail side.

Tim McPhillips:

Fresh vegetables are up 3 percent year over year and canned vegetables up 5 percent. One shining reason for that?

David Ortega:

That has to do in part with some of the increases in production costs from the tariff, in particular, the tin steel from the steel and aluminum tariffs that have made that input much higher in price.

Tim McPhillips:

How about that after-dinner coffee?

David Ortega:

That is up over 18 percent compared to last year, so near record highs for coffee.

Tim McPhillips:

Pies and desserts haven't increased much, unless they contain chocolate. Cocoa prices are near record highs.

David Ortega:

That's because of supply constraints from consecutive years of poor harvest in some of the cocoa-growing regions in the world and West Africa.

Tim McPhillips:

And if all that makes you want:

David Ortega:

Wine for your holiday table.

Tim McPhillips:

Know that imported wine is also more expensive due to tariffs, but:

David Ortega:

Domestic wine prices are slightly down compared from last year. That has to do with some excess supply, but also some softening demand.

Tim McPhillips:

For PBS News, in charge of key lime pie this Thanksgiving, I'm Tim McPhillips.