Trudeau stepping down as Canada’s PM after rapid decline in public approval

Amna Nawaz:

Today, Canada's Justin Trudeau announced that he intends to resign as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, under tremendous pressure from his own caucus and from among his closest allies.

Here's part of his remarks making that announcement earlier today.

Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister:

I have always been driven by my love for Canada, by my desire to serve Canadians and by what is in the best interests of Canadians. And Canadians deserve a real choice in the next election. And it has become obvious to me, with the internal battles, that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard into the next election.

Amna Nawaz:

Trudeau will remain prime minister until the new Liberal leader is selected by the end of March, as his party prepares for a formidable challenge in the next election later this year.

I'm joined now by Professor Roland Paris. He's director of the graduate school of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa and a former senior adviser on foreign policy to the prime minister of Canada.

Professor Paris, welcome.

So we should say there have been signs. This was coming for months, but help us understand why this is happening now and was his resignation, in your view, inevitable?

Roland Paris, University of Ottawa: I think it was heading in this direction for some time.

This is a story of a government and a prime minister who's been in power for nearly 10 years. Canadians are very clearly tired of him. Polls turned decisively against him about 18 months ago. He tried and his team tried everything they could to try and reverse that trend. But with the prospect of an election in 2025 and what looked like an almost inevitable crushing defeat in that election, as you mentioned in your intro, members of his own caucus and his own party called for him to resign and to be replaced by someone else.

And that's what he did today.

Amna Nawaz:

It's worth reminding everyone he was a real rising star in global progressive politics when he first became prime minister back in 2015. He had very high approval ratings soon after in the mid 60s. By the end of last year, those were down in the low 20s.

So what was behind that? What was fueling such a spectacular fall from grace?

Roland Paris:

Well, like a lot of incumbents, he suffered from having been empowered during the pandemic and with all of the disruption that was caused by the pandemic landing on his doorstep, also, of course, inflation, cost of living, housing.

But, mostly, it was time. Governments don't tend to last more than about 10 years in Canada. And he was into his ninth year. Governments and leaders are always popular when they're elected, and they're usually unpopular when they're defeated. And I think that's the basic story here.

Amna Nawaz:

Tell us about the opposition leader here of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre. What role did he play in Trudeau's downfall here?

Roland Paris:

Well, of course, he was doing everything he could to weaken the Liberal Party. He's in an interesting position right now because the opposition Conservative Party is 24 points ahead in the polls.

And by the — if there were an election today, that would likely result in a really crushing majority victory for the opposition Conservatives. So it seems like it's his job for the taking.

At the same time, his net approval ratings are negative-17. So a lot of Canadians haven't really warmed up to him yet. So we will see what he does over the next few weeks and into what is almost certain to be an election maybe in May and whether he can win over Canadians.

I suspect that if there were an election right now, he would win anyway. But he does have a personal approval challenge.

Amna Nawaz:

Professor Paris, what about the role of the U.S. president-elect here, Donald Trump? He has mocked Mr. Trudeau. He has dismissed him as a governor, rather than a prime minister. He threatened tariffs. That prodded Trudeau to quickly fly down to Mar-a-Lago to discuss with him in person.

And, today, Mr. Trump posted this. He wrote — quote — "Many people in Canada love being the 51st state. The United States can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this and resigned."

He goes on then to suggest that Canada should merge with the United States. But do you think that Mr. Trump and his attitude towards Trudeau played a role in his weakening in any way?

Roland Paris:

Well, I would say that the statement that Mr. Trump made today in previous similar ones are just nonsense and viewed as nonsense here.

And the dynamic that led to Mr. Trudeau resigning today was under way long before Mr. Trump was elected in November. But, that said, Trump's threat of imposing 25 percent tariffs on Canada and other countries once he takes office, that is taken very seriously here. It would have devastating effects.

I should say, with regard to Mr. Trump's comments about Canada's trade surplus, that that's really the result of Canada selling to the United States resources that the United States wants, including oil and electricity; 50 percent — more than 50 percent of the crude oil imports in the United States come from Canada. Lots of the critical minerals that fuel America's technological industries come from Canada.

I don't think Mr. Trump wants to cut off those things.

Amna Nawaz:

In the minute or so we have left, you have Mr. Trump coming back into office in just a matter of weeks.

There could be a change of government in Canada ahead. What do you see as the relationship between these two countries moving forward in the near-term?

Roland Paris:

I expect that the fundamental relationship remains solid because it's so much more than the relationship between the president and whoever the prime minister is. It's a very deep, intermeshed relationship, one of the closest relationships in the world, and both economically and in many other respects as well.

But, that said, I think that we might be in for a bumpy time. For Canada, we will have a lame-duck prime minister, because Mr. Trudeau will serve until there's a new Liberal leader. Then there will be a Liberal leader through an election campaign, and, finally, the results of that election, we will have another prime minister or maybe that same Liberal leader.

So there's a period of uncertainty on the Canadian side, and I certainly hope that the good work that has been done to build relationships right across the U.S. political system will continue to forward this very important bilateral relationship in the months and years to come.

Amna Nawaz:

That is Professor Roland Paris from the University of Ottawa.

Professor Paris, thank you for your time. Good to speak with you.

Roland Paris:

Thank you.