Trump cherry-picking tariff fights and uniting allies against U.S., analyst says

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• Judy Woodruff:

  And let's hear another voice now about the president's trade policy and moves toward U.S. allies.

  Ian Bremmer closely follows this, as the founder of the political risk consultancy the Eurasia Group.

  Ian Bremmer, welcome to the program.

  I think you just heard what Marc Short had to say, that this is a president who came into office saying the U.S. is going to be dealt with fairly by its adversaries and by its allies.

  So, if that is the case, why isn't what the president is doing what everybody — what he said he was going to do?

• Ian Bremmer:

  I think, on this count, it actually is. It's true that the establishment in the Republican Party, as well as the Democratic Party, supports free trade.

  But Trump certainly didn't speak in that direction. He said American companies aren't particularly patriotic in taking jobs overseas. He wanted to bring them back. And he also said that he thought that other countries were treating America unfairly.

  So the tariffs he's talking about and the pretty hard line he's taking is clearly popular for his base. We saw Lindsey Graham and John McCain both talk about just today the fact that they support free trade and open borders and open markets, but that they believe perhaps a majority of the American people do not.

  And Trump is playing on that division very directly today.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And what about — we heard Marc Short say, look, dairy may be a small percentage, a small — just a small portion of overall trade, but it's really hurting American dairy interests, American dairy farmers and dairy producers.

  So why isn't it appropriate for the president to say look, Canada, if are you going to impose these enormous 270 percent tariffs on us, we're going to turn around and punish you?

• Ian Bremmer:

  Well, to mix the metaphor, Judy, he is really cherry-picking, right?

  I mean, the United States actually has tariffs of about 200 percent on Canadian sour cream that comes in. So they may be tough on milk, but we bring culture to our dairy tariffs.

  Shelled and unshelled peanuts, incredibly high tariffs from the U.S., peanuts, incredibly high tariffs. We have industries we happen to support, special interests. The Canadians have theirs. If we had joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership, we probably would have lost some manufacturing jobs overseas, but we would have had much more access in terms of agriculture.

  Trump had no interest in that. The broader issue here is not about dairy. The broader issue is that Trump has very little interest in multilateral institutions and architecture, and he doesn't have a very good relationship with U.S. allies.

  The thing I found most unnerving about Marc's interview with you is when he started off by reiterating that Trump said that his relationship on a scale of one to 10 with the U.S. allies in the G7 is a 10.

  I have spoken directly with all of those allies. None of them would come close to that assessment, right? The U.S. relationship with those countries is OKish. Trump's personal relationship is actually closer to a zero. And he did everything he could to tell those allies individually and collectively that they do not matter to him in Canada this weekend.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Another point — and I didn't get a chance to bring it up with Marc Short, but the president is tweeting about it today — and that is what these allies are contributing to NATO.

  He continues to point out the U.S. pays the lion's share. He said the U.S. pays the vast majority of what goes into NATO. The countries that are benefiting from that are paying just a very small percentage. Doesn't the president have a point about that?

• Ian Bremmer:

  Yes, that's one of the stronger questions for to you give Marc, because he absolutely has a point there. The Germans are spending about 1.2 percent of their GDP on defense right now. The Americans spend 3.5 percent.

  All of the allies commit to 2 percent of GDP for NATO defense. Most of them are not cutting it. That has been an issue under Obama. It was an issue under Bush.

  And while many are starting to spend more, like the Polish government, for example, concerned about the Russians closer to their border, most are not. The Germans have been talking about it for a long time. There is some free riding going on there.

  But let's keep in mind that if you are an American ally sitting in Canada, and Trump comes in, he says he doesn't even want to show up to his allies the day before, he shows up late, he cancels his bilateral meeting with the French president literally hours before, he leaves early, he shows complete indifference to most of the talks that are going on.

  He's already left the Iranian deal, the Paris climate accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He's taking a unilateral decision on Jerusalem.

  Literally, people say that Trump is a divider. But in terms of Trump's allies, he is a uniter. No one has done more to bring these countries together against the United States. And that's, unfortunately, just a reality.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, we thank you.

• Ian Bremmer:

  Sure, Judy.