Trump promised a manufacturing boom, but factory jobs continue to decline

William Brangham:

The U.S. job market has been cooling recently, and government data shows it's only getting harder for Americans to find a job.

One sector that has proved tougher than most is manufacturing. President Trump has promised a manufacturing boom in both his terms, but while he's been able to get pledges for more factory investment, the actual jobs inside those factories tell a different story thus far.

Economics correspondent Paul Solman has this report.

Paul Solman:

The Ohio State marching band and its featured instrument, the brassy sousaphone, emblem of school spirit and state pride, made just outside Cleveland.

Rob Hines, Sousaphone Buffer, Conn Selmer:

We handcraft everything. We have perfected the process for it and it's been working for 58 years in our facility. And that's what I think you get when you get that American craftsmanship.

Paul Solman:

Rob Hines, an American craftsman, sousaphone buffer at the Conn Selmer plant, where he's worked for nine years.

Rob Hines:

It's not an easy job. It's a grueling job. But we do it because we love what we do.

Paul Solman:

And what they lovingly produce, which is why he and co-workers were stunned when the company suddenly said it will shutter the factory in June and relocate to China, shunting 150 people to the street.

Rob Hines:

It's a lot of fear right now. A lot of people are afraid.

Wyatt Georskey, Sousaphone Buffer, Conn Selmer:

We're talking about some of the best brass instrument craftsmen in the world going into job interviews and being told, well, that's good and all, but you don't actually have any skills.

Paul Solman:

Wyatt Georskey, another buffer. His future?

Wyatt Georskey:

I don't know what I'm going to do. We're all left in a limbo right now.

Paul Solman:

Of course, some of you have seen it as long as I have, manufacturing jobs on the wane ever since 1979.

President Donald Trump:

Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see happening already.

Paul Solman:

It's a trend President Trump has famously vowed to reverse with tariffs and domestic investment. Foreign leaders and business executives have frequently visited the White House grounds pledging to spend in the U.S. of A.

DONALD TRUMP:

In 12 months, I secured commitments for more than $18 trillion pouring in from all over the globe.

Paul Solman:

This number is widely thought to be implausible and almost assuredly includes commitments that were made before Trump's second term. But there's no contesting the fact that, since President Trump took office, the U.S. has lost nearly 100,000 manufacturing jobs.

The administration and its allies, however, tout their dedication to a turnaround.

John Paulson, Founder, Paulson & Co.: We need to protect American jobs and protect American manufacturing. We can't have Americans, American producers closing American factories and offshoring.

Paul Solman:

And yet it's this same famed investor, John Paulson, who owns the brass instrument factory. Paulson hosted a $50 million fund-raiser for President Trump during the 2024 campaign.

Rob Hines:

A lot of our members support Trump and believed in the administration.

Paul Solman:

Or did, claims Conn Selmer union Rob Hines.

And how are people feeling about it now?

Rob Hines:

Some people feel slighted. Some people are even questioning if Trump actually knows about the moves his allies are making in the dark. Some people still believe in administration. Some people feel let down.

Paul Solman:

In recent years, the company had already been moving parts to China, cheaper production, to buff the bottom line, but at a hidden cost, says Hines.

Rob Hines:

We have seen over the last year the quality deteriorate just from trying to integrate those foreign parts.

Paul Solman:

Wait, the myopic maximizing of shareholder value we have heard so much about? Or do the workers here just see what they want to see?

Rob Hines:

I don't think it would be just because it's in our interest. As somebody who works with these parts day in and day out, six days a week, we see the quality, and the employees have complained about the quality. And it's fallen on deaf ears.

Paul Solman:

Meanwhile, the job attrition in Wyatt Georskey's part of the plant.

Wyatt Georskey:

At times, it's been over 100, and now we're down to this group of 16 of us who are sending out the last American-made French horns and sousaphones and tubas.

Paul Solman:

Plus, there's another cost often ignored when a plant goes under, the loss of internal community.

Rob Hines:

That's just as big a weight as losing your job financially. I mean, it might sound kind of bizarre to say, but a lot of people are devastated, because we have people 40, 50 years have been working together.

Wyatt Georskey:

It's been a tragedy, right, not only for community, but for bar buddies and friends everywhere.

Paul Solman:

But that too has been happening for eons. In fact, the destruction of all those jobs down on the farm is what helped create the manufacturing boom of the last century. But is there no way to protect American jobs from foreign competition?

The push now is, let's get manufacturers from here and especially abroad to bring their manufacturing to the United States, which is then supposedly going to create more jobs than at least are here now.

Robert Lawrence, Harvard University:

The question is, how significant would those jobs be relative to the whole economy?

Paul Solman:

Trade economist Robert Lawrence.

Robert Lawrence:

We had a $1.2 trillion trade deficit in manufacturing last year. Suppose all the money that is going abroad would be used to buy American goods.

Paul Solman:

Even under such a fantasy, how much would actual factory floor jobs increase? Professor Lawrence estimates less than 1 percent. And, of course, American-made products would then cost more. In addition, he says:

Robert Lawrence:

If we were self-sufficient, what would it do to the opportunities for the typical worker in the United States who doesn't have a college education? Would it create large numbers of employment opportunities? That's basically what's been driving our policies. And the answer is very little.

But, in addition, those jobs are increasingly likely to be displaced as a result of increased automation.

Paul Solman:

And perhaps increasingly likely to be overpromised, like two Ohio Intel plants.

Tim Bubb, Licking County, Ohio, Commissioner:

Intel promised 5,000 jobs into construction. We're seeing less than half that, and 3,000 permanent jobs to man those two plants and manufacture silicon chips. Frankly, I think that's overpromised and underdelivered, as they say.

Paul Solman:

Licking County Commissioner Tim Bubb, where the Intel project is located.

Is it an unrealistic expectation that we're going to have lots more manufacturing jobs in this country than we used to?

Tim Bubb:

Well, I'm not going to go as far as unrealistic, but you don't want to be overly optimistic. We're still an expensive labor market. We have competitors around the world. It's a world market now in Asia and other places that have been pretty darn competitive in manufacturing and shipping to this country.

Paul Solman:

More over, ads Bubb:

Tim Bubb:

One of the problems we have in this country is trained work force. You can move manufacturing plants back here, but who's going to work in them?

Paul Solman:

But at the Alliance for American Manufacturing, the watchword is patience.

Scott Paul, President, Alliance for American Manufacturing: Just as it took a couple of decades for us to deindustrialize, I don't think that we're going to see immediate results in manufacturing.

Paul Solman:

Scott Paul runs the Alliance.

Scott Paul:

I'm optimistic that over time, we will see manufacturing job growth come out of both the massive amount of construction that's going on right now, the trade deficit coming down a little bit, and a reshoring trend that was already under way before Trump became president.

Paul Solman:

So he says manufacturing jobs won't be stuck forever at today's lower level, and new corporate investment promised by Trump will be part of the renaissance. The U.S., he says, added a million manufacturing jobs between 2010 and 2019, when many thought that simply wouldn't happen.

Scott Paul:

It's not impossible to regrow the sector if we have the right policies. There might be a ceiling on the manufacturing job growth that we can see because of automation and productivity, but that doesn't mean that we can't grow the sector again over time.

Paul Solman:

Patience is a luxury for the likes of Wyatt Georskey, though.

Wyatt Georskey:

I'm not even thinking day to day. I'm thinking second to second. All I'm thinking is, can I get enough sousaphones out, can I get enough tubas out that they won't close this plant at a whim because they see productivity dip?

All I can think about are the people around me and my duty to them and to our legacy to keep the place open just a little longer so we can get a few paychecks.

Paul Solman:

As of last week, the plant was still open, the paychecks still being issued. But the deadline seems to be the end of June.

For the "PBS News Hour," Paul Solman.