Trump signals Russia blocking path to peace as CIA rejects Putin's drone attack claim

Lisa Desjardins:

A U.S. official tells "News Hour" that the CIA has assessed Ukraine was not targeting Vladimir Putin in a recent drone attack, a claim that Putin made to President Trump and that Trump seemed to accept earlier this week.

And, this afternoon, a President Trump social media post suggested he agreed with what Europeans argue tonight that it's Russia that is blocking a peace deal with Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin begins with Russia's latest strikes on Ukraine at a tense diplomatic moment.

Nick Schifrin:

Russia's New Year's Eve welcome in Ukraine's third largest city on Moscow's battlefield of choice, civilian infrastructure, where the victims were the vulnerable, the elderly, four-legged family members, and a 7-month-old infant.

By day, their homes blackened, the now-homeless spent New Year's night displaced, a Christmas tree the only thing left standing in a ruined apartment.

Tetiana, Odesa Resident (through interpreter):

We have been left out on the street. Any family could find themselves in the same situation. Everyone is equal now. No one knows where the next strike will land.

Nick Schifrin:

And, today, about 400 miles to the north, Russia's top general threatened more strikes.

Valery Gerasimov told troops posted near Ukraine's Northeast border that their mission was to seize what he called buffer zones inside two Ukrainian provinces, even though the current U.S. peace plan calls for Russia to withdraw entirely from those exact provinces.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov (through interpreter):

The president of the Russian Federation ordered to continue expanding the line of defense next year.

Nick Schifrin:

But it's not defense that Russia is playing when it comes to information operations. Moscow released these images today of what it claimed were Ukrainian drones that targeted a Vladimir Putin residence complete with a map of the drone's alleged route.

That Putin home in Northwest Russia, exposed by former opposition leader Alexei Navalny's foundation, has 75,000 square feet located on a property that spans 370 lakeside acres and, according to another Putin critic, home to Putin's secretive family with Alina Kabaeva.

Putin alleged the attack on the phone with Trump earlier this week, and Trump accepted it.

President Donald Trump:

It's a delicate period of time. This is not the right time. It's one thing to be offensive, because they were offensive. It's another thing to attack his house. It's not the right time to do any of that, and can't do it.

Nick Schifrin:

But, tonight, a U.S. official confirms to "PBS News Hour" that the CIA has concluded Ukraine was not targeting Putin's residence. A person familiar with the meeting says CIA Director John Ratcliffe briefed that conclusion to President Trump.

And, this afternoon, President Trump posted this story with the headline: "Russia is the one standing in the way of peace."

Today, European leaders agreed. Top E.U. diplomat Kaja Kallas wrote it was a -- quote -- "deliberate distraction, and Moscow aims to derail real progress toward peace by Ukraine and its Western partners."

Senior European officials told "PBS News Hour" today the story was a -- quote -- "false flag, an 100 percent lie," and a French official said its intelligence concluded the claim had no credible evidence.

And for perspective on all this, we turn to Angela Stent. She is the former national intelligence officer for Russia, author of "Putin's World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest," and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington.

Angela Stent, thank you very much. Welcome back to the "News Hour."

So let's talk about this new CIA assessment. Of course, the U.S. has sensors that can detect drones. It has relationships with its Ukrainian partners. Talk us through what would go into this assessment just in the last few days.

Angela Stent, American Enterprise Institute:

So they would be looking very carefully at the path of the drones. Now, we have to say that the Novgorod region, which is near where Putin's residence is, is home to a number of defense-related industries, including drone production.

So it's quite understandable that the Ukrainians might have wanted to target that, given all the bombardment that they have been experiencing in the past months and, even as you said yourself tonight, New Year's Eve. And so that would have been the assessment looking at the path of these drones.

I watched the Russian footage. And, of course, it's really -- they show you drones, but it doesn't show you exactly where it's located. So it would have been really being very specific about what the location was and concluding that, yes, there were probably Ukrainian drones in the area, again, targeting these defense-related industries, but certainly not targeting Putin's own residence.

Nick Schifrin:

So, given that, is it possible that Vladimir Putin, that Russian intelligence thought or believed that these drones were in fact aimed at him?

Angela Stent:

Well, I find that rather difficult to believe. I think the Russian intelligence services are pretty talented at figuring out where the drones are going.

But it's quite possible someone could have misreported it or they could have conflated various things. So -- and they might have told Putin that. That's quite plausible too. I mean, what happens inside the Kremlin is clearly a black box. And so we can only speculate about that.

Nick Schifrin:

And so, therefore, would the U.S. intelligence community conclude to Donald Trump, to the president that Putin was lying to him on the phone? Or could the assessment be that, hey, Russia might have thought that these drones were heading there, so he wasn't specifically lying to you, Mr. President?

Angela Stent:

It could have been either of those things, I think, depending on who was talking to him.

But the very fact that he has now posted on social media that Russia is the obstacle here, he's reversed what he said when he first spoke to President Putin and Putin told him that they had told him that they had targeted, that they tried to assassinate him, which is what he told him, I think he would -- he now understands that this wasn't true.

And he is now beginning to understand perhaps that Vladimir Putin really doesn't want to sign peace agreement with Ukraine and that the reason he told President Trump that the Ukrainians had tried to assassinate him was to try and persuade President Trump that Russia had every right to keep hitting Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin:

So let's talk about that reversal, as you just called it. We did hear President Trump basically accept Putin's story, now, as you said, posting this story that The New York Post did about how Putin is blocking peace efforts.

Let's talk about the intelligence community for one second. How significant is it that President Trump, who has doubted the I.C. in public in the past, seemed to accept CIA Director Ratcliffe's assessment that, yes, boss, look, it's not what you thought, it's not what Putin told you, but it's actually this?

Angela Stent:

It must have been pretty convincing evidence. And I think, fortunately, he clearly trusts the wisdom of his CIA director and his judgment.

And there must have been enough people around him to convince him that he should accept what Director Ratcliffe said.

Nick Schifrin:

So, given all this, what do you think would be the impact on the talks, given that President Trump is now effectively rejecting the story that, as you have been saying, Putin inserted into the narrative in order to kind of break up the talks or break up the momentum of the talks?

Angela Stent:

So, now it will be up to President Trump, I think, to discuss this with his chief negotiators currently, which is Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who've been talking to Putin, were just recently there, and so that they might pull back, I think, from trying to still persuade the Ukrainians that they should be willing to make some what they call a land swap.

They had President Zelenskyy with them in Mar-a-Lago in Florida this weekend, and apparently did agree on a peace plan which would not have involved Ukraine doing that. But from what we have heard previously, certainly from Mr. Witkoff, he has believed that the only way that you will get to peace and really the only obstacle is if Ukraine gives up territory to Russia that Russia doesn't control. That's not true. Putin is after much more than territory.

And so maybe there now has to be, I think, an agreement, a consensus between the president and his chief negotiators and also Secretary of State Rubio that in fact Russia is the obstacle to peace and that Putin has just been playing them along because he does not want the Trump administration to impose more sanctions on Russia or reverse itself on supplying Ukraine with certain weapons, which would enable the Ukrainians to push back against the Russians more effectively.

Nick Schifrin:

And very briefly, because I only have about 40 seconds left, you just mentioned weapons. The U.S. has restrained some weapons to Ukraine.

What's been the impact for Ukraine's ability to have leverage both on the front lines, but, crucially, at the negotiating table?

Angela Stent:

This has reduced Ukraine's own leverage.

President Zelenskyy spent much of 2025, in essence, negotiating with President Trump to make sure that the U.S. doesn't fully withdraw its support from Ukraine. And so were Ukraine to be able to maintain -- to obtain some of these weapons, that would certainly increase President Zelenskyy's leverage.

Nick Schifrin:

Angela Stent, thank you very much.

Angela Stent:

Thank you.