Trump tries to assure Asian nations hit by U.S. tariffs amid progress on China trade deal

John Yang:

Good evening. I'm John Yang. On the first day of his nearly week long Asia trip, President Trump sought to shift attention from controversies at home to deals struck with allies in the region. In Kuala Lumpur for a summit of Asian leaders, Mr. Trump took part in a ceremony to sign a series of agreements and a court ending the brief war between Cambodia and Thailand and economic deals with both of those nations and with Malaysia. Addressing the summit, Mr. Trump tried to reassure a region that's been hit hard by US Tariffs.

Donald Trump, U.S. President:

My message to the nations of Southeast Asia is that the United States is with you 100 percent, and we intend to be a strong partner and friend for many generations to come. Together, we'll create incredible prosperity for the nations on both sides of the Pacific Ocean and to seize the new opportunities for all of our people.

John Yang:

On NBC's Meet the Press, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is closing in on a trade deal with China.

Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary:

President Trump gave me a great deal of negotiating leverage with the threat of the 100 percent tariffs on November 1st. And I believe we've reached a very substantial framework that will avoid that and allow us to discuss many other things with the Chinese.

John Yang:

U.S. and Chinese negotiators aim to have a final deal by Thursday when the president meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea. Jonathan Czin is from the Brookings Institution. He was China director on President Biden's National Security Council and a senior China analyst for the CIA.

Mr. Czin, what do we know about this framework that the secretary was talking about? Is it likely to lead to something substantial or is this going to lead to something just to have for the meeting on Thursday?

Jonathan Czin, The Brookings Institution:

I think it's more the latter. This is going to be something to have for the meeting for Thursday. And I think that this has kind of been the story throughout this trade war since Liberation Day back in April, where you will have skirmishing between the two sides, but then the focus in the particulars will come down to focusing on relatively narrow agreements on either specific sectors or specific firms, without ever getting to some of the strategic trade issues that ostensibly animated the trade war in the first place.

There was talk from the U.S. side about purchases, Chinese purchases of soybeans, a deferral of China's export controls on rare earth elements, and some kind of deal on TikTok. Both sides have discussed some kind of deal on fentanyl may be in play here, but the Chinese side has also mentioned additional possible aspects to this as well, such as U.S. levies on Chinese ships accessing ports.

John Yang:

Besides trade, what are the other topics that are probably going to come up in this meeting?

Jonathan Czin:

In the run up to this meeting, President Trump broached the possibility of discussing Ukraine with the Chinese side with Xi Jinping, and Taiwan has come up as a possible area of discussion as well. Trade has really been the predominant focus throughout these discussions, which is why the main conduit of exchange between the two sides has run through Vice Premier Ho Le Fong on the Chinese side and Secretary Bessent and Jameson Greer on the U.S. Side.

John Yang:

What's at stake for each leader in this meeting?

Jonathan Czin:

I think for President Trump, there is a fair bit at stake. I think this is an important element for him to demonstrate his persona as a dealmaker. And I think that has been an important theme throughout this trip so far and his other international engagements.

For President Xi, I think the goals are actually less ambitious here. He's looking to sustain the relief that he secured earlier in the year from U.S. trade measures. I think he sees that as a win for right now.

John Yang:

What's the relative bargaining strength, as it were, of these two leaders as they go into this meeting? Does one side be in a stronger position than another?

Jonathan Czin:

I think from the U.S. side, there are a number of cards that the U.S. has to play and points of leverage that we have. But I think from the Chinese perspective, what they are going to read into this, and I think what they've read into the trade war so far, is that the U.S. side doesn't necessarily have the appetite.

Part of what's happened in the run up to this meeting that's quite notable is that the Chinese side seas have switched from playing defense for most of the year and largely reacting to U.S. policy moves to playing offense through these expansive export controls on rare earth elements which China has a chokehold over.

And I think the fact that the U.S. side did not follow through with its threats to retaliate and kept this meeting on the glide path, I think Beijing is going to see that as a sign that they can enact these kind of measures with impunity. And if that's the case, I think we are in for another round of skirmishing and bumpy rounds of further bumpy rounds in the trade war in 2026.

John Yang:

Mr. Trump has other meetings, of course, leading up to this. He's going to Japan to meet with the new prime minister in South Korea, the APEC summit. What are you watching for in those meetings?

Jonathan Czin:

The fact that the meeting is occurring at all, I think is significant for the Japanese. We are dealing in Japan now with a new prime minister and one who's new to international diplomacy. She is from the more conservative wing of the party and had said before that she might be much tougher with the Trump administration, but we've not seen evidence of that since she's taken office and in the final run up to securing her position.

Instead, what we saw on Friday, right before her meeting with President Trump, was an indication that Japan would elevate its defense spending from 1 percent to 2 percent of its GDP.

John Yang:

And at the APEC meeting?

Jonathan Czin:

And at the APEC meeting itself, I mean, I think this is probably going to be the tough thing for the South Korean side, is that Trump's meeting with XI is kind of overshadowing the whole event. I think there are going to be some details that they're focused on. They have their own trade negotiations that they are looking to finalize with the Trump administration.

And I think they're hoping to lock that up. I think one of the most nettlesome issues is what to do about this $350 billion investment fund that's been talked about as part of the negotiation.

But for the most part, I think for not just for the Koreans, I think for throughout the region, because there hasn't really been a clear Indo-Pacific strategy articulated by the Trump administration, they are going to see the meeting between Trump and Xi as a proxy sign for the administration's broader approach to the region.

John Yang:

Jonathan Czin of the Brookings Institution, thank you very much.

Jonathan Czin:

Thank you.