U.S. Public’s Support for War in Iraq Declines as Violence, Deaths Continue

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• GWEN IFILL:

  For the first part of our Iraq update, we go to Edward Wong of the New York Times for a report on the latest violence there. I talked with him by telephone from Baghdad earlier today.

  Ed Wong, welcome back to the NewsHour. What can you tell us about these latest attacks?

• EDWARD WONG:

  Well, the police chief in Kirkuk told us today that the attack up there, the car bombing that killed a little under two dozen people, was the deadliest one of the war so far in Kirkuk, the deadliest guerrilla attack. And basically, it was a bombing that took place outside a bank, and there were retirees who were waiting in line outside the bank to collect their pension. And among the victims, those killed and those injured, were women and children.

• EDWARD WONG:

  I think it shocked a lot of people in Kirkuk. And, although during the insurgency, we have seen attacks on civilians, attacks on civilians gathered in groups is not that regular. Usually, they're attacks on Iraqi security forces, Iraqi army and police officers gathered in groups, but it's not as common to see this happening among civilians. Also, northeast of Baghdad, there was a car bomb that targeted an Iraqi police checkpoint, and that killed five Iraqi policemen.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Prime Minister al-Jaafari was moved to talk about this attack in Kirkuk today. What did he have to say to the national assembly?

• EDWARD WONG:

  Well, he addressed the issue of Kirkuk in the national assembly. He was saying that he had spoken with Turkish officials recently about the problem in Kirkuk, because Turkey is trying to keep the Kurds from controlling Kirkuk. And he basically, Dr. Jaafari, basically said it's a very complicated problem, that in Kirkuk we have Kurds who were forced to move out of Kirkuk by Saddam for political reasons.

  And then we also have Arabs in Kirkuk who were moved into Kirkuk for political reasons to change the demographics there, and these in a way are contradictory problems in that it's hard to solve both problems at once. You've got Arabs who were artificially moved there who are living there now, and then you have the Kurds who want to move back in and are living…many of them are living in refugee camps around Kirkuk.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Is there any way of knowing whether Iraqi troops have been infiltrated by insurgents, and if so — and also, is there any way to quantify the number of insurgents killed in these attacks?

• EDWARD WONG:

  I don't think that there's any doubt among anyone here that Iraqi troops have been infiltrated by insurgents there. There have been a lot of cases. We've seen recently, as well as in the last, even in the last two years of insurgents acting on what must be inside information or inside access to get to attacks.

  And even a few days ago, there was a former member of an elite commando unit called the Wolf Brigade, walked into the Wolf Brigade headquarters here in Baghdad and blew himself up, and killing several people, and so that was one very clear instance where, obviously, insurgents have made their way into even an elite commando unit.

• GWEN IFILL:

  And there have been these executions in and around Baghdad as well.

• EDWARD WONG:

  That's right. There's been, in the last two days, officials in Baghdad have reported finding lots of bodies of people, and the ones that turned up today — I think there were around two dozen of them — they're believed to be two separate groups of truck drivers, of Iraqis who work on convoys, as well as at least one man who is supposedly from Nepal.

  We know here in Iraq there are lots of foreign nationals who work some of the most dangerous jobs, such as driving trucks on the routes, the highways that are controlled by insurgents, and many times they're killed when these convoys are attacked.

• GWEN IFILL:

  There have been some reports of some back-channel communications going on between U.S. officials and some leaders of the insurgency. Has your reporting turned that up?

• EDWARD WONG:

  Well, it's unclear. There's contradictory information about that. The U.S. officials and Iraqi government insist that they're basically not holding any talks with any people who would be involved in criminal actions or in the killing of either American or Iraqi forces, so — which actually, if that were true, then that would actually mean the people they're talking to aren't the hard-core insurgents, but are rather, perhaps, go-betweens or middlemen between them and the insurgency, which is largely led by Sunni Arabs.

  We know for a fact that they are talking with some Sunni political hardliners who do have ties to the insurgency. Whether or not these people are directly involved in the insurgency is a question.

• GWEN IFILL:

  All right, Edward Wong, thank you so much.

• EDWARD WONG:

  Great. Thanks a lot, Gwen.

• GWEN IFILL:

  The overall numbers are not encouraging. There have been 118 U.S. casualties in Iraq just since May, more than 1,700 since the war began. And as casualties have continued to build, public support for the war has steadily eroded.

  A new Gallup poll asked whether it was worth going to war in Iraq. Fifty-six percent of those surveyed said "no," 42 percent said "yes." Fifty-eight percent of those polled by the Washington Post and ABC News said they disapprove of the way the president is handling the situation in Iraq. Forty-one percent approve.

  And a narrow majority — 47 percent to 45 percent — say the U.S. made the right decision to go to war, but shrinking the seven-point advantage the president enjoyed in January. That's according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. So what is going on with American public opinion?

  For that, we turn to Pew Executive Director Andrew Kohut. Andy, welcome back.

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  Happy to be here.

• GWEN IFILL:

  What is going on with American public opinion?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  Disillusionment. The public has been second-guessing the decision for some time, but now we see in the polls, the Gallup poll, our surveys, more Americans saying maybe we should get the troops out. We have a very narrow majority, 50 percent, saying we have to keep the troops there until the situation is stable, but 46 percent saying get them out now.

  Six months ago, at the time of the election, we had a wide 25-point margin saying we've got to keep our troops there until the situation is stable. Even though people thought maybe we made the wrong decision, we were there, we had to stay, that's no longer the case. Fifty-nine percent in the Gallup Poll say get some of them out or get them all out now.

• GWEN IFILL:

  We talked about how popular the war seemed right after those Iraqi elections, and it's not been that very long since there's been this sudden collapse in approval. What's been driving that?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  The casualties. You know, the American public is often accused of not paying attention, but they pay attention to casualties. When we ask people to tell us in their own words to estimate how many American lives have been lost, they came in at about 1,500 lives lost this weekend, which is pretty close to the 1,700 marker, just as a year ago, they were doing a pretty good estimate of a lower number.

  The steady — two more Marines killed, three more soldiers killed — continuing a portrait of an insurgency that just doesn't quit, and costs that just keep getting ever higher, underscored by the value of this operation is low.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Is there any evidence in any of these surveys that people fear that we are getting bogged down in Iraq?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  Sixty-four percent say that, and I think the ABC/Washington Post poll describe it as being bogged down. Now, about seven or eight months ago, we asked a question about Vietnam: Is this going to be turned into another Vietnam, or are we going to meet our goals? And the majority said we're going to meet our goals.

  But now, we have 35 percent saying it's going to be another — it's likely to be another Vietnam, and only 46 percent saying we're going to meet our goals. So optimism about success is slowly being eroded and the American public's patience is being challenged.

• GWEN IFILL:

  So are Americans saying get out now, we should just withdraw our troops?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  The public is still divided. The bottom for support for our troops being there hasn't completely fallen out, but they're about — they have — they're about as discontented with the situation as they've been since the beginning of the war.

• GWEN IFILL:

  And what about the trade-off? The president has said, and Americans have believed in past surveys that going to war in Iraq made the United States more secure.

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  That was the point of view in most of the polls until very recently. The latest ABC/Washington Post poll now has a majority saying no, it hasn't enhanced American security, the forceful removal of Saddam Hussein. So this idea of this being part of the war on terrorism, which kept up support for some time, is that, too, a crucial component of American support, has begun to be eroded.

• GWEN IFILL:

  And so it's had its effect on the president's approval rating?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  It sure has. We have about the lowest approval rating of the presidency, 42 percent approve, 49 percent approve. By comparison, President Clinton at this time, in his second term, had a 54 percent rating; President Reagan had a 58 percent rating in 1985. Only Richard Nixon in 1973 had a lower rating at 40 percent, and he was being bogged down by Watergate.

• GWEN IFILL:

  So this isn't second term-itis?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  No, it is not second term-itis. It's, this problem, which is the real drain and then lack of good news in other realms. The public is still discontented with the economy. They were appalled by the Schiavo incident, big measures of disapproval for the Congress, for the president. They see the filibuster argument, nothing getting done, large percentages saying we're losing ground on a whole range of issues from healthcare to the economy. The public is still complaining about lack of good jobs in their communities.

• GWEN IFILL:

  What are Americans optimistic about?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  Well they still think the president's doing a good job of protecting us from another terrorist attack, but there's not much good news, and that's — that's the president's problem. That's the Congress' problem. Congressional approval ratings are at a very low point — 34 percent in the latest Gallup poll — and we've even seen the percentage of people saying that perhaps their own member of Congress doesn't deserve re-election, go up in the Wall Street Journal poll.

• GWEN IFILL:

  So it's a pox on everybody's houses?

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  That's right.

• GWEN IFILL:

  Andy Kohut, thanks again.

• ANDREW KOHUT:

  You're welcome.