U.S. restarts nuclear diplomacy with Iran amid escalating threats. Here's what to know

Geoff Bennett:

Welcome to the "News Hour."

Today, across two continents, the U.S. confronted two very different nuclear challenges. For the first time since last year's war in Iran, U.S. and Iranian diplomats restarted diplomacy focused on that country's nuclear program.

Amna Nawaz:

And for the first time today, the U.S. accused China of conducting a secret nuclear test just one day after letting the final nuclear arms control treaty with Russia expire,

Nick Schifrin been covering both stories and joins us now.

So, Nick, let's start with the U.S. and Iran. What do we know about how those talks went today?

Nick Schifrin:

Well, the Trump administration has provided no readout at the moment, but in the lead-up to these talks, we heard from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the top negotiator, Steve Witkoff, that Iran must not make any nuclear fuel domestically, must restrict the range of its ballistic missiles, must end its support for proxy groups and account for highly enriched uranium that has been missing since last summer's strikes.

Today, the U.S. held indirect talks. You see Witkoff there with the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, meeting Oman's foreign minister, who then met with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who said the talks focused on nuclear weapons and were a -- quote -- "good start."

Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister:

We were able to exchange our viewpoints, to express our concerns and our interests for a possible deal between the two sides on our nuclear question.

Nick Schifrin:

Araghchi said there would be a new round of talks. No confirmation of that from the U.S. side, which for the first time included the top U.S. military commander from the Middle East, a reminder, Amna, of President Trump's threats against Iran and that military buildup still in the region.

Amna Nawaz:

So what do the experts tell you all of that means for the possibility of an actual deal?

Nick Schifrin:

Well, that's the question I put to Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is very skeptical of any deal of Iran's nuclear program, missile program, or support for proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas.

Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: The Iranian regime still seems so intent on defying the United States and they fear that if they give into pressure, it's going to project weakness and invite even more pressure.

Up until now Iran has shown no flexibility on moderating its ballistic missile program, or its regional proxies. And so the Iranian goal is to limit this conversation only to nuclear and even then to drag on the conversation.

Nick Schifrin:

Drag on the conversation, Amna, so it doesn't get bombed by the United States.

A U.S. official, though, confirms to me that Iran is trying to reconstitute its ballistic missile program. Look at the before right there and now look at the after of a missile production facility.

Listen to distinguished scholar at Middlebury College Jeffrey Lewis. He's studied these kinds of images for years.

Jeffrey Lewis, Middlebury College:

We can see those facilities in satellite images. And so Israel attempted to destroy many of those buildings, but now they're back. It seems pretty clearly that Iran is well on its way to resuming production of its missiles.

Nick Schifrin:

And U.S. officials, Amna, acknowledge that could mean Israel, if not the U.S., try and strike those missile production factories again in 2026.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's turn now to those allegations, accusations of a secret nuclear test by China. What exactly is the U.S. saying happened?

Nick Schifrin:

Yes, so, for the first time today, the U.S. revealed that China conducted explosive nuclear tests, including in June 2020, and sought to conceal them by putting the explosion inside an underground chamber.

That would be China's first explosive test in some 25 years. Now, former senior officials told me today that they have known about that test for years. So what's interesting perhaps mostly today is the timing. The fact that China conducted that test has not been declassified until today, which happens to be the day after the U.S. let New START, the final nuclear arms control treaty, expire.

The Trump administration and some experts have long argued that New START wasn't adequate because it didn't address China's growing arsenal. And so today it seems to be an attempt to try and pressure China into some kind of three-way talks with the United States and Russia about arms control overall.

But, honestly, Beijing has always resisted any kind of limits on its nuclear program while it's growing its arsenal, says Jeffrey Lewis.

Jeffrey Lewis:

China has largely resisted entering any kind of formal talks, partly because their number is lower than the U.S. and they're in the process of catching up.

But I think at a deeper and more profound level, it's because all of the things we want, predictability, transparency, these are things that China thinks are bad for it, because China is worried that, if we find them to be predictable and transparent, that we will be more comfortable pushing them around in a regional security crisis because we will know where their red lines are.

Nick Schifrin:

Which means no trilateral talks with China any time soon. And, tonight, I spoke to former Biden senior officials and also Republican senior arms control officials, and both argued to me that the U.S. should deploy more nuclear warheads. And now that New START has expired, they can do exactly that.

Amna Nawaz:

Nick Schifrin starting our coverage tonight.

Nick, thank you.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.