U.S. skeptical that Israel can protect Gaza civilians as Rafah assault looms

Amna Nawaz:

Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had approved plans to assault Rafah in Southern Gaza, where more than half of all Gazans have fled.

But that warning arrived as Netanyahu and international mediators also acknowledged that negotiations for a cease-fire had advanced.

Nick Schifrin is here now to break it all down.

Nick, good to see you.

Nick Schifrin:

Thanks, Amna.

Amna Nawaz:

So, let's begin with that plan for Rafah.

What do we know?

Nick Schifrin:

So Netanyahu met with — first with his war cabinet and the larger security cabinet. You see them right there. And they approved a plan to assault Rafah and move the majority of Gazans out.

Now, he didn't release any details, but you can see the problem right there. More than half of all of the strip is living in Rafah. And the military earlier this week said they would move to quote humanitarian islands, again, no details of what that actually means.

Now, Israeli leaders are unified about the need to go into Rafah because they say Hamas' final four battalions are based there, and they believe that defeating those battalions militarily is the only way to actually win the war.

But the U.S., frankly, is deeply skeptical that Israel is ever going to come up with a plan that will actually protect those 1.4 million people in Gaza, as you saw reflected by Secretary of State Tony Blinken today.

Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State: We have to see a clear and implementable plan not only to get civilians out of harm's way, but also to make sure that, once out of harm's way, they're appropriately cared for with shelter, with food, with medicine, with clothing. And we have not yet seen such a plan.

Nick Schifrin:

But the U.S. also understands that Israel is serious about going into Rafah, and that's, Amna, what is leading to such a huge push right now to try and get that cease-fire done.

Amna Nawaz:

And the negotiations for that cease-fire, we mentioned they do seem to be moving along. Where do they stand?

Nick Schifrin:

So, Hamas has submitted a counterproposal to the latest Israeli and international proposal, and a regional official tells me that it actually advances in two significant aspects, the fact that Hamas is now asking that the permanent cease-fire can be negotiated after the first round of release of hostages.

They have been saying that that permanent part of the cease-fire needs to be guaranteed before they released any hostages. And Hamas is willing to release female Israeli soldiers. Now, the overall framework for the negotiation is, as we have been reporting, Hamas would release 35 to 40 female, elderly and sick hostages.

In return, Israel would cease fire for six weeks, increase humanitarian aid into Gaza, and release Palestinian detainees. Now, where the two sides still have gaps, Israel is objecting to the number of Palestinian detainees that Hamas is demanding, and they are rejecting Hamas' desire for how Gaza residents would return to their homes in the north.

Now, publicly, Netanyahu is calling Hamas' demands — quote — "unrealistic and ridiculous," but the fact is that he's sending his negotiators to Doha to continue negotiations this weekend.

Amna Nawaz:

Nick, meanwhile, all of this is unfolding during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

What does that mean for how negotiators, how people here in Washington and the Arab allies are working towards a cease-fire?

Nick Schifrin:

They are looking at one fact, and that is that the U.N. says one-quarter of Gaza is on the brink of famine. It is the humanitarian crisis that is really leading these efforts.

And there has been a big increase to try and get humanitarian aid in, especially this week, perhaps most publicly by ship. Just today, a World Central Kitchen ship landed in Gaza, delivering 200 tons of rice, flour and other food. Another ship is right behind it. The U.S. dropped its 11 airdrop of food today.

The international organizations say there is no replacement for trucks. Hundreds and hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks need to get into Gaza, they say. Now, Israel says there are no restrictions on trucks, and they blame the lack of aid on U.N. capacity. But those international organizations are blaming Israeli restrictions.

And that lack of aid, of course, also that 30,000 death toll, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, is really pushing for international pressure on Netanyahu. And that international pressure here in the U.S. perhaps crescendoed yesterday.

We saw in the Senate, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer calling for new elections in Israel, saying that Netanyahu had — quote — "lost his way." And, today, President Biden essentially endorsed Schumer's call.

Joe Biden , President of the United States: He made a good speech, and I think he expressed a serious concern shared not only by him, but by many Americans.

Nick Schifrin:

And Netanyahu's allies were furious about Schumer's speech. Likud, Netanyahu's party, even had to say — quote — "Israel is not a banana republic."

But the fact is that Israeli polls are saying that the majority of Israelis want early elections. And if they were held today, Netanyahu would lose.

Congressional officials tell me that Schumer's speech basically gives President Biden a little bit of top cover among people who are traditional supporters of Israel if the president decides to finally condition military aid, which his aides say is a possibility. But it depends, Amna, on what we have been talking about, how much humanitarian aid gets in, those cease-fire talks, and of course, what Israel does in Rafah.

Amna Nawaz:

High stakes and a lot of moving parts.

Nick Schifrin, thank you, as always.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.

Amna Nawaz:

And, remember, on our YouTube channel, our "PBS News Weekly" digital show takes a closer look this week at the latest in the Israel-Hamas war.