Voters in Four States Go to Polls in Crucial ‘Mini Tuesday’

JIM LEHRER:

And, yes, March 4 finally arrived. A look at the prospects for all concerned now, with Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, and Hotline editor-in-chief Amy Walter, and Chris Cillizza of WashingtonPost.com.

The two big states of the day, of course, are Ohio and Texas. Judy, set the Democratic stage in Ohio for us.

JUDY WOODRUFF:

Well, Jim, if this has been an election where issues haven't mattered as much as people thought they might — this has been an election where people have talked about personalities and character and other things — but in Ohio, the issue of the economy and jobs does matter to these voters.

I spent four days there last week. And what you find is that not only are voters saying they want to know what these candidates are going to do about the economy, they want to know, are we going to be able to hold onto our jobs?

And so coming in, Hillary Clinton who had a big lead in polls, was already talking about why she was better on the economy, how she was going to produce jobs in Ohio. Barack Obama came back with the same thing.

That then morphed into a discussion about the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA. And we heard a lot about that. We heard a lot about how Hillary's husband, former President Bill Clinton, was the administration that created NAFTA.

And then we heard the discussion about Obama having an economic adviser who met with the Canadians and hinted that maybe he wasn't so serious.

The bottom line, Jim, is that right now in Ohio going in, Hillary Clinton had some advantage, but Barack Obama has been fighting back. And it is anybody's guess at this point as to where it is.

We've been talking — I've been talking to both campaigns today, and they're both looking at turnout and they both are optimistic.

JIM LEHRER:

Chris, do you share that, that both sides are optimistic and maybe each has a reason to be optimistic?

CHRIS CILLIZZA, The Washington Post:

I think everyone is optimistic, Jim, until they have a reason not to be, frankly.

And when you don't have polls closed yet, I think both sides want to make sure that they get as many of their voters — remember, these campaigns have been targeting voters for months on end, if not years, frankly — make sure they get those people to the polls. I think that's the main task.

Just to pick up on one quick thing that Judy mentioned about the economy, preliminary exit polling, 90 percent or more of Ohio Democratic voters, people voting in that Ohio Democratic primary, said the state of the economy is either poor or not so good. In Texas, that number was above 80 percent.

So a lot of economic unrest in both of these places. We'll see which candidate capitalizes, but that is a change-oriented electorate, people not liking the direction, at least on the economy, that the country is headed.

JIM LEHRER:

Well, Amy, is there any indication as to how that falls on either side? I mean, does this 90 percent concern about the economy, does that help Clinton or does that help Obama, or do we even know at this point?

AMY WALTER, The National Journal:

Well, the assumption would be that those would be the sort of folks that Hillary Clinton has done very well with traditionally. So these would be people who are making less than $50,000 a year, people she's done much better with, those kinds of voters. People who may not have a college education, again, those are the types of voters that she does better with than Barack Obama.

I don't know where independents are coming in. We've been talking so much in these last few elections about the impact of these suburban voters, these swing voters that have been going more for Barack Obama. He's doing much better among people who feel better about their personal financial standing.

At the same time, the way Ohio is going in general, I think there's just a sense of a malaise in that state, much like we saw in a place like Michigan, but it may not give us as much insight into the types of voters that are coming out and who they're going to vote for.

JIM LEHRER:

Chris, is there any early exit poll information about how many independents voted in Ohio compared with Democrats? Is there any breakdown at all to help us on that?

CHRIS CILLIZZA:

Jim, I wish there was, but there isn't yet. Basically, the information that we currently have is really about the shape of the electorate, the things driving them, the economy, obviously.

And then, again not surprising — and this has been the case in almost every primary and caucus — change, people want change. The key attribute in selecting a candidate: a candidate able to bring about change.

So more than 40 percent in each Ohio and Texas saying that change is their key attribute. That's what we know for the moment.