War correspondent Scott Anderson on the shifting landscape in the Middle East

Amna Nawaz:

Now to a deeper look at the Middle East, the recent upheavals there, and the ripple effects across the globe.

Geoff Bennett has that conversation, which he recorded earlier.

Geoff Bennett:

War correspondent Scott Anderson has spent nearly four decades reporting from some of the world's most volatile places. Ten years ago, his landmark "New York Times" magazine project "Fractured Lands" traced the lives of six people across the Middle East as war, dictatorship, and the Arab Spring transformed the region.

A decade later, the map has changed again. Bashar al-Assad has fallen in Syria, the war in Gaza has reshaped the region, and the U.S. is now at war with Iran.

Anderson's latest book, "King of Kings," examines the fall of Iran's last shah in 1978 and the Islamic Revolution that followed and still shapes Iran today.

And Scott Anderson joins us now.

Welcome to the "News Hour."

Scott Anderson, Author, "King of Kings: The Iranian Revolution: A Story of Hubris, Delusion and Catastrophic Miscalculation": Thank you. It's nice to be here.

Geoff Bennett:

When you wrote "Fractured Lands," you told this sweeping story through six people. Ten years later, where are they now?

Scott Anderson:

One is dead, Wakaz, who was a ISIS fighter who I interviewed when he was in prison. He was hung shortly after I interviewed him. Two of them are in exile in Europe, one in Austria and one in Germany.

And for the other three, life is kind of a stasis. It's Majdi, who is in Libya. And Libya's a failed state. He's just kind of trapped there. and, yes, it's just kind of gone on.

Geoff Bennett:

And how does what happened to them, what does that say about what has happened to the region?

Scott Anderson:

I think that there was a time when there was some optimism for some of these countries.

I remember when I did the "Fractured Lands" project, Tunisia was kind of a bright spot. Five years on from the Arab Spring revolts, you had a kind of a fledgling democracy there. That's gone now. Kind of across the region, things have gone worse.

Certainly, the dictatorship in Egypt under General Sisi is far more repressive than it was under Mubarak. You have Syria, which is a failed state, Iraq, which is a failed state, essentially. Things have just become worse and worse, I think.

Geoff Bennett:

And the Arab Spring promised political change across the Middle East. Why didn't any of that come to fruition?

Scott Anderson:

There was this golden moment when it looked like finally that was going to happen. But I think just the powers that be is -- it comes down to the people's guns.

And you saw it in Syria. And Syria was a classic -- really the saddest case of people rising up against a brutal dictatorship. and they were just machine-gunned into submission. And it happened to a lesser extent in Libya. And the overthrow -- the return of the strongman in Tunisia was more of a of a gradual process.

Geoff Bennett:

Is the Middle East more fractured today than when you wrote "Fractured Lands," or has the nature of the fracture in many ways changed?

Scott Anderson:

The nature of the fractures have changed.

Now, with the U.S.-Iran war, we're right at the cusp of a whole rearranging of the geopolitical chessboard in the region. Certainly, the spheres of influence are in flux. Iran is going to become a much more powerful regional player in a different way than it was before.

It's lost a lot of its proxy fighting allies in the region, but now economically it can -- it can dictate terms to a large degree.

Geoff Bennett:

So, on that point, does attacking Iran, does it weaken the regime or does it in some way strengthen it?

Scott Anderson:

It strengthens it.

Geoff Bennett:

Really?

Scott Anderson:

It strengthens it.

In January, there was an uprising against the Iranian regime, and large scale, went all across the country, and the regime realized it was on its -- its back was to the wall, so it machine-gunned its way out of it, killed certainly thousands, if not tens of thousands of people.

Going forward into end of February, when the Israelis and Americans start bombing Iran again, this idea that there is going to be another uprising, that's just not in the cards.

Instead, what happens, because you have this latent and very strong strain of anti-Western, especially anti-American feeling in Iran, nobody likes to be bombed by foreign countries as a general rule. So, in a way, it just strengthens the regime.

Geoff Bennett:

Looking broadly at the Middle East, who is most vulnerable in this new order?

Scott Anderson:

I think the Gulf states are at a very sensitive spot.

Certainly, Dubai has built itself up as this transportation hub and a tourism hub. That's taken a real hit. And all you have to do is send a few drones over and it scares the -- it scares everybody away. Planes don't land. Tourists don't come. I think Saudi Arabia is in -- is going to be in trouble too for the same reason.

Geoff Bennett:

You've spent decades reporting on the consequences of American power in the region. We just marked 25 years after September 11, 25 years of U.S. power really shaping the Middle East.

Are we watching that era come to an end?

Scott Anderson:

Absolutely. We're absolutely seeing it come to an end after Afghanistan, after Iraq, now after Iran. Iran is a fiasco in the making for the American government.

I think the standing of American prestige and power in the region is massively diminished. One thing I think that the Trump administration didn't take into account is the weaponized drone has changed the face of modern war. And it's a David-and-Goliath weapon.

And it has -- it doesn't matter how huge an army you have in conventional terms. That's kind of the great equalizer. And so aircraft carriers, tanks, they can be blown up by $35,000 drones. So, no, I think America's prestige is way down in the region and will continue to go down.

Geoff Bennett:

If American influence is receding, who or what is filling the vacuum?

Scott Anderson:

I think you're going to see regional players coming up. Turkey is playing a bigger and bigger role, both in the Gulf area and in Central Asia.

I think Israel is going -- is actually weakened by all this. They were making the Abraham Accords and bringing in Gulf states in recognition. I think that's going to be much diminished by their actions in Gaza. It's possible that you will see Iran, again, growing stronger again too.

Geoff Bennett:

Scott Anderson. Latest book is "King of Kings: The Iranian Revolution: A Story of Hubris, Delusion and Catastrophic Miscalculation."

A pleasure to speak with you.

Scott Anderson:

Thank you. Thanks for having me.

Amna Nawaz:

That conversation was produced in partnership with the Pulitzer Center.