What Iowa Republican voters are thinking on frigid eve of 2024 caucuses

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• John Yang:

  Good evening, I'm John Yang. Tonight on the eve of the first contest of the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidates are making last minute appeals in a frigid Iowa. The National Weather Service's warning of dangerously cold wind chills as low as 45 below Monday night when Iowa Republicans gathered for caucuses.

  Lisa Desjardins has been braving that cold for us and joins us now indoors at Indianola, Iowa, South of Des Moines. Lisa, in your travels around Iowa, what have people told you about this cold? Is it going to deter them from going out to caucus tomorrow night? And is there are there supporters for one candidate who are seeing more motivated than others?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Well, you can see behind me, this is a room where former President Trump spoke not long ago and it was full of Trump supporters. They came out in negative 21 degree cold. I can take it for a bit not cold. It's a bit like having toothpicks stabbed at every portion of exposed body.

  We came here and we saw a long line of them enthusiastic to get in some of them prepared and dressed for this weather room. Some of them frankly, not and risking frostbite, the Trump campaign did have some buses here so that the supporters could get on board to warm themselves as they waited.

  Now, one factor here is that former President Trump has canceled three events in the last day and a half. So all the more reason when we talk to folks we found they were very excited and wanted to be here.

• Savannah Freese, Iowa Republican Voter:

  We're all new voters. So you just turned 18 and we feel like having we go to this college and we feel like having such a wonderful opportunity to see such a big speaker on campus is worth it.

• Chris Ward, Iowa Republican Voter:

  Support Trump want to hear what he has to say. But —

• Lisa Desjardins:

  do you think this weather is going to affect the caucuses at all, maybe older voters? Or what do you think is going to happen?

• Chris Ward:

  You know, I don't think so. I think you see this today. I think same thing is going to happen tomorrow. You know, I think as long as it's not snowing and you know, and the weather and everything, the roads are clear, I think people are still going to come out.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Now, there is a lot of discussion in this state about which voters are asking the right question will come out or not in the cold. And I will say the most confident campaign is the Trump campaign.

  However, I have spoken to voters personally Trump supporters who told me that they don't think they will come out for two reasons. Some told me they think the former president is ahead by so much that he doesn't really need their help and why should they go out in the cold, other say it just simply will be too cold. And either they themselves don't feel that they're up for it. They don't want to risk it or they're with parents whose health they don't want to risk.

• John Yang:

  You mentioned the Trump campaign had canceled some events because of the weather. What about the other campaign says this prevented them from making their final appeals?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  I think the campaign most affected by this has been Nikki Haley's. Yesterday she moved all of her events to become virtual. And this morning surprisingly, she canceled an event in Dubuque. Even though we know roads are clear.

  I will say there are still cars by the sides of all the roads. There is still black ice on the highways here. While Nikki Haley canceled that event this morning, Ron DeSantis showed up in the very same town not long after. So Haley, I think has some ground and makeup because of the weather.

• John Yang:

  We got the final Des Moines Register NBC News poll last night. The last one before the caucuses, any surprises in it? And how does it match up with what you're hearing as you travel around the state?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Well, I don't know if it's a surprise or not, but certainly newsworthy that Nikki Haley has come into second place now in this Iowa poll. And this poll by the Des Moines Register and NBC News is sort of seen as the gold standard here in Iowa.

  And this poll is significant for her to sort of establish herself as a potential second place, but she's not ahead by much. As you can see, Donald Trump 48 points that's less than half and then Nikki Haley with 20 percent, DeSantis is 16.

  Now, it's significant, of course, that Haley is up in number two there. But look at that margin. Donald Trump is still ahead by almost 30 points. In any other race, we wouldn't really even be talking about it. There's a question of enthusiasm that you've been raising here, John. And this poll indicated that Donald Trump supporters are by far the most enthusiastic when asked who was extremely or very enthusiastic about their candidate, 88 percent of Trump's supporters say yes. They are very enthusiastic compared with a lower number for Ron DeSantis, 62, and a much lower number for Nikki Haley.

  While she is gaining voters right now, and I can tell you from experience, I've talked to them, they are out there. The question is, how firm are they for Haley? And it's going to really matter what the weather. There's a theory that perhaps she is the most vulnerable to cold temperatures last night, tomorrow night, we will see.

• John Yang:

  Of course, we had a little change in the lineup. Late last week, Chris Christie dropped out on Thursday. Was he much of a presence in Iowa before this and does this make any difference in the race?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  No, Chris Christie actually skipped over Iowa. He never planned to do well. He didn't campaign here. However, he did have a few supporters. I spoke with one of them. I think what's more significant is that while polls show that the true undecided number is maybe 5 percent of Iowa Republican caucus goers. I have talked to many, many voters in every event DeSantis events, Trump events just in hardware stores, who say they are stuck between one or two Republican candidates, including former President Trump. I think there are more persuadable voters here making late decisions than many of these campaigns realize.

• John Yang:

  Lisa Desjardins staying warm in Iowa right now. Lisa, thank you very much.

  And Lisa will be in Iowa on Monday night for live coverage of the caucuses starting at 11:00 p.m. Eastern here on PBS.