What McCain’s death means for the Arizona senate race

John Yang:

We turn out for more on McCain's political legacy and what his passing means for a heated Arizona election with our regular politics Monday team, Tamara Keith of NPR and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report.

Welcome to you both.

This back and forth between President Obama and Senator John McCain went on right up to the end, and actually beyond the end a little bit. Tam, we played a little bit of the final message that was read this morning in Arizona.

And he had some words that could be interpreted as a message about President Trump.

Tamara Keith:

Certainly.

There was a passage — and I have written it down, so I apologize for looking down. But in this final letter, he says, "We weaken our greatness when we confuse our patriotism with tribal rivalries that have sown resentment and hatred and violence in all the corners of the globe. We weaken it when we hide behind walls, rather than tear them down."

President Trump obviously talks a lot about a wall. And this — it wasn't officially a message to President Trump, but it certainly — it certainly reads that way. And this comes as President Trump put out a statement on Twitter that didn't say anything nice at all about John McCain, at least initially.

And then today there was a longer story statement, and that involved lowering the flag to have half-staff, where there was half-a-sentence where he said that he respected McCain's service to the nation.

John Yang:

Amy?

Amy Walter:

I don't know. Maybe I'm just — this is my contrarian side coming forward.

But I think, to honor the life of John McCain, it'd be best for all of us in the news media to spend time on John McCain, and not time on Donald Trump and what he's tweeting and not tweeting, and the intrigue in the office, was he going to say this, was he not going to say that, and to spend it instead, as the "NewsHour" did, on a whole retrospective of his life.

What I find fascinating too about the era that we're in right now, it didn't begin — it didn't end during John McCain's tenure there. It didn't start with Donald Trump. The Senate has become a much more polarizing, partisan place.

And the folks at 538.com did a great piece the other day where they looked at John McCain's voting record in the time since he's been in office. His first decade in office, he voted 88 percent of the time with Republicans. That put him about — with the Republican in the White House.

That put him basically in the middle of the Senate. Half voted fewer times with their party, half more. Now, at 87 percent for the last 20 years, OK, so a point lower, he's in the lower third, OK?

So he didn't move. The Senate moved to be a much more polarizing place.

Tamara Keith:

Yes.

And in terms of his relationship with his party, it was — it was always a complicated relationship. At times, he was in lockstep with the Republican Party and Republican orthodoxy. At other times, he was out of step with it.

And if you — listening to conservative talk radio, there wasn't a lot of love lost for Senator McCain on the far right.

Amy Walter:

No.

John Yang:

And a complicated relationship with the party in his own state. And, tomorrow, they're going to go to the polls, a Republican primary there.

The candidates for the other Senate seat, for Jeff Flake's Senate seat, the three Republican candidates, two of them no big fans of John McCain.

What does that say about how politics has moved?

Amy Walter:

That's right. I think it's fascinating to see that the — President Trump is much more popular among Arizona Republicans. I mean a lot more popular.

I looked at — the last poll that I found was a CBS poll from June that McCain's job approval rating among Republicans in Arizona was 20 percent. So there's a reason that all of the Republicans running to replace Jeff Flake in this primary tomorrow are trying to attach themselves much more closely with President Trump than they are with John McCain.

And we're going to, I think, see that continue in a whole bunch of other places, where these — quote, unquote — "mavericks" who are retiring now are going to be replaced by, if they replaced by a Republican, one who fits much more in the Trump mold.

Tamara Keith:

Yes, and there's a reason Jeff Flake retired.

John Yang:

Very good point.

Tamara Keith:

Yes.

John Yang:

And the governor, Doug Ducey, in Arizona is going to have to name a replacement for Senator McCain. He says he won't do it until after obviously the burial on Sunday.

But he faces the choice. Is it going to be someone like John McCain? Or is it going to be someone more like Donald Trump?

Tamara Keith:

And is it going to be someone who is sort of a caretaker who will be in that post for two years, and then — and then it'll be open season and everybody can run for it?

One — one name that has been floated — and who knows if this the direction he would go — is Cindy McCain, John McCain's widow. If they were to go that direction, it would follow in sort of a long tradition of wives being named to their husband's seats after their husbands have died.

Back in the old days, that was that was how women got into Congress.

John Yang:

That's right.

Amy Walter:

Well, and just from that poll that I noted that folks in Arizona in the Republican Party do not — are not embracing, whether it's John McCain or Jeff Flake, the maverick outsider, not sticking with Trump, not sticking with the party line kind of persona.

So my expectation is, Ducey is going to nominate somebody who is going to be a reliable vote. And that's going to be important for Mitch McConnell going into these next few months, where he will now finally have 51 votes.

John Yang:

About a minute left.

In Florida, another primary tomorrow. One of the government gubernatorial candidates really wanted President Trump's endorsement. Got it. He's running against a Republican who worked through the ranks, did all the things you're supposed to do if you want to advance in the party and become governor.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

John Yang:

What does this say about where we are in politics?

Amy Walter:

That this is Trump's party now. And if you are on the Trump team, it can — it doesn't necessarily guarantee you a win in a primary. But it gives you a tremendous boost.

Tamara Keith:

Right.

And Ron DeSantis, the candidate who is hugging President Trump closely, has this ad that is absolutely hilarious with his children, and just like — you have to see it to believe it. But it's all about how much he loves Donald Trump, and has gotten the endorsement of President Trump.

There is — there is no doubt where he's headed with that ad.

John Yang:

Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, Politics Monday, thanks a lot.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.