What people in Iran are saying about the war and their government

Geoff Bennett:

In recent days, the focus has been on the cease-fire with Iran, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon.

But less attention has been paid to the people inside Iran, those who have borne the brunt of U.S. and Israeli attacks. What are they thinking about this war and about the regime that governs them?

For that, we turn now to Holly Dagres. She's a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She spent her teenage years in Tehran and now curates The Iranist. That's a weekly, Substack newsletter.

Thanks for being here.

Holly Dagres:

Thank you for having me.

Geoff Bennett:

So what are you hearing? What has daily life been like for people in Iran, the people that you have been speaking with?

Holly Dagres:

Well, I should note that there's been an Internet shutdown for now 41 days. It was state-imposed.

And so what's peering out of the country is mostly anecdotal. And what I'm hearing at this juncture is that a lot of Iranians are confused about what's happening. There was this unprecedented massacre in January and then the president said that help was on the way. And then now the cease-fire happens with the regime that they wanted ousted and they're having to live with that.

But then there's also a sense of relief from Iranians that were anti-war to begin with or maybe anti-war over time because they saw all these civilian casualties. There have been at least 1,700, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran.

Geoff Bennett:

You mentioned the president's rhetoric. That social media post earlier this week where he said -- quote -- "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again, I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," how was that interpreted by people in Iran?

Holly Dagres:

So it really shook Iranians. The -- I had Iranian Americans actually reaching out to me and saying, is the president going to drop a nuclear weapon on our families in Iran?

And then we had the White House actually issue a statement saying that that wasn't going to be a reality. But going back to my original point, I mean, you're saying you want to help the Iranian people and oust the regime, and then you're threatening them with getting rid of them as an entire civilization. And it didn't resonate well at all.

There were reportedly Iranians fleeing the capital, Tehran, stocking up on food, water, electricity. Some people were saying that their families were saying goodbye. They weren't necessarily sure that they'd have electricity and they would be able to contact the outside world, or if they would even survive what was going to come because they were staying up all until 3:30 a.m. Tehran time to see what was going to happen.

So I think it really irked a lot and scared a lot of Iranians across the board.

Geoff Bennett:

You mentioned, before the war, there were Iranians who opposed the regime and welcomed outside pressure. Has the way this war has progressed so far, has that changed their point of view?

Holly Dagres:

I would say arguably yes.

Again, we're dealing with the state-imposed Internet shutdown. We're not getting the full picture. But from what we're seeing is that, just based off what the president's rhetoric was before the war, during the war and now with the cease-fire, it's not adding up for Iranians

And I really -- the big worry now is that yes, the war may end, but now the Islamic Republic is going to take revenge on the Iranian people. We have seen at least 1,500 people arrested. We have seen at least 10 executions. Some of those were protesters during the January anti-regime uprising.

And so there's a real worry about what's going to be waiting for them, because now the Islamic Republic is a rump regime, arguably more hard-line, more repressive, and now more emboldened because they have been able to survive this and have control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Geoff Bennett:

When the president suggests that there are Iranians who want the U.S. strikes to continue, are you hearing that at all or is that a misreading of what people actually want?

Holly Dagres:

Well, I heard that commentary. I think that initially, at least, there were some Iranians that were feeling this way, but the goalposts of the war have changed.

This isn't about the ouster of the Islamic Republic. It seems like this is about, at this juncture, degrading its military capabilities and leaving the people in a worse situation than they were originally. And so it's hard to say that this is something that the Iranian people asked for.

They have asked for the ouster of the Islamic Republic, one that now apparently Vice President J.D. Vance and a team are going to be meeting with Islamabad for talks. So I don't think this is what the Iranian people want.

Geoff Bennett:

Understanding that no group is a monolith, how has this war reshaped how ordinary Iranians view the U.S. and view Israel?

Holly Dagres:

You know, for a long time, I have said that Iranians were arguably the most pro-American in the Middle East, if not the world. And I'm not entirely sure how they're going to feel after this war, assuming that the cease-fire holds, because of what has happened over the past few weeks.

But I think that there's also a reality that Iranians know how to separate the government of the United States from the American people. And they have always said that. And so I think that we can't put, I think, one sort of thinking for Iranians, especially anti-regime Iranians.

Geoff Bennett:

Holly Dagres, thanks, as always, for your insights.

Holly Dagres:

Thank you.