What the election results signal for next year’s midterms

Amna Nawaz:

Well, as we have been discussing, last night saw resounding wins for Democrats across several states. But how did the winning coalition come together?

For a deeper dive into the results, I'm joined now by Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.

Good to see you.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Hello.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's jump in. Let's start with Virginia, first of all.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

We saw there Democrat Abigail Spanberger with more than 57 percent of the vote to win over the Republican, who had about 43 percent, a similar margin of victory in New Jersey, where the Democrat Mikie Sherrill got more than 56 percent of the vote.

So let's just start with the elephant in the room, right?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

How much did President Trump and his policies have to do with these wins?

Amy Walter:

There's no doubt that he was a central factor in these. These are not federal races, right? These are gubernatorial races. And yet when you look at the margins of both of those candidates, they basically matched Trump's disapproval rating in the state.

So, for example, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, she won her race by 14 points, Donald Trump's disapproval rating in the state basically minus-14. In other words, what the Republican candidate got in that race matched the vote — I'm sorry — matched Trump's approval rating there.

So what we also see is that overall voters were maybe not necessarily unhappy with what was happening in their state. That was true in Virginia, where they thought Virginia was pretty much on the right track. They felt pretty good about the Republican governor, but they thought that things in the country were going off track.

I think, in Virginia, 80 percent of voters there said they think things in the country are going off on the wrong track, close to that in the state of New Jersey. And independent voters, who we know are traditionally the swing voters, moved overwhelmingly in favor of both Democrats in those races.

Again, I would argue this was much more about how those voters felt about Donald Trump than it was — than it being about what was going on in those specific states.

Amna Nawaz:

I know you and I have also talked a lot over the last year or so about how much the president, President Trump, the inroads that he made with minority groups to secure his last victory.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

Amna Nawaz:

What did we see with regards to that last night?

Amy Walter:

Well, you can see in a state here like New Jersey, back in 2024, President Trump made pretty significant gains in that state, winning 43 percent of the Latino vote.

In this election, those gains really evaporated, the Republican getting 31 percent of the Latino vote. We saw in Virginia, for example, in the most heavily Hispanic district in the state, the Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, improved on Harris' margin with those voters by 20 points, so did 20 points better in Latino areas. Now — than Harris did.

Now, I talked to a Democratic strategist today who works very closely with Latino voters who said, put the brakes on this, Democrats who think that this means everything's fixed, everything's solved, and that Republicans' gains with Latinos are going to SNAP back to where they were before Trump was in office.

His argument is, yes, this was a good night for Democrats, but it doesn't mean that the Republican movement among Latino voters is going away.

Amna Nawaz:

So, in the minute or so we have left, what does it mean big picture?

Amy Walter:

I know.

Amna Nawaz:

What can we pull from last night in terms of looking ahead to the 2026 midterms?

Amy Walter:

Yes, so I said the other night on Politics Monday that it's sort of a reset. We basically get to move away from 2024 and look ahead now on what the political environment looks 2025 and going forward into the '26 election.

Combine what happened in those New Jersey-Virginia races with other races taking place in more purple states, like Georgia and Pennsylvania, where Democrats had really good nights in some statewide local races.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Combine that with special elections, where Democratic candidates are outperforming Kamala Harris by 15 points on average, that adds up to a very difficult political environment for Republicans going into 2026, a much better environment for Democrats.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, always great to have you help us make sense of it all.

Amy Walter:

Thank you very much, Amna.

Amna Nawaz:

Thank you so much.