What the U.S. is offering and demanding in latest Ukraine ceasefire proposal

Geoff Bennet:

It has been a pivotal day of diplomacy and declarations for the future of the war in Ukraine, now mired in its fourth year.

Amna Nawaz:

Ukrainian and American officials convened in London in what was billed as a make-or-break meeting. Ukraine demanded a cease-fire before it would agree to any concessions, while President Trump aimed his fire at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Nick Schifrin has been following all of this today, and he joins us here now.

So, Nick, the U.S. has put forward a proposal. What's in it and how have the Ukrainians responded?

Nick Schifrin:

Amna, as you said, U.S. and Ukrainian officials met today in a pivotal meeting in London, on the U.S. side represented by special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled at the last minute.

A U.S. and European official tell me that Ukraine and Europe proposed a counterproposal to the U.S. plan that they say is this. Ukraine would give up the right to reseize all occupied territory with its military. Ukraine would not join NATO. The U.S. would legally recognize Russian control of Crimea, but Ukraine would not have to.

The U.S. would also lift sanctions on Russia. Europe would provide Ukraine security guarantees. And then there are the territorial concessions, which we will go over with a map.

Russia currently occupies about 18 percent of Ukraine. You see it there in pink. Under the U.S. plan, the lines would essentially freeze. So Russia would get to keep the territory it currently occupies. You see that in red, in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, but it would have to give back some territory in blue up in Kharkiv up in the north.

It would also have to give back the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which you see in Southern Ukraine over there, that it currently occupies. Now, that counterproposal that I mentioned, U.S. — I'm sorry — Ukraine and European officials said that Ukraine would have — there would have to be a cease-fire on the ground agreed to by Russia.

And there have — and Ukraine would have to get long-term security guarantees before there could be any conversation about all of those other items, all of those other concessions. It is not clear how the White House will respond to that, but Vice President J.D. Vance said today that the U.S. did want to freeze the war on its current lines and he reiterated the U.S. could walk away.

J.D. Vance, Vice President of the United States: We have issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians and it's time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process. The current line, somewhere close to them is where you're ultimately, I think, going to draw the new lines in the conflict.

Nick Schifrin:

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said today that Trump would not walk away "by the end of the day" — quote, unquote — but — quote — "frustration is growing."

Amna Nawaz:

And we saw that frustration from President Trump sort of boil over in a statement. What happened there?

Nick Schifrin:

Yes, President Trump said he noticed a statement made by Zelenskyy yesterday in which Zelenskyy ruled out Ukrainian recognition of Crimea, which Russia has occupied and annexed since 2014.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President (through translator):

Ukraine does not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There is nothing to talk about. It is outside our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin:

Today, Trump disparaged that statement, writing on TRUTH Social: "Zelenskyy's statement is very harmful to the peace negotiations with Russia, in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian territory. It's inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy's that makes it so difficult to settle this war."

But, Amna, as I said, the U.S. proposal would recognize Crimea as Russian territory legally.

Amna Nawaz:

Nick, you have been talking to a lot of experts about that U.S. proposal. What are they telling you? What's their analysis?

Nick Schifrin:

Defenders of Ukraine believe that Ukraine is being unnecessarily punished. It was Ukraine that agreed to a 30-day cease-fire unconditionally. Russia rejected it. It was Ukraine that agreed to a cease-fire in energy infrastructure, which Russia promptly went against by bombing energy infrastructure inside Ukraine.

And it is Russia that is making demands on the size of Ukraine's military.

Former Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst argues that President Trump has weakened his original positions after Russian resistance.

John Herbst, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: This is not peace through strength. This is peace through accommodating the aggressor. What Putin has done is, he said no and the administration then coddles him. They come back with additional concessions.

And to offer American legal recognition of Crimea would break 45 — 85 years of sound American policy, refusing to recognize Russian conquests.

Nick Schifrin:

But others argue that — sorry — Herbst also argues that the U.S. should not close the door to Ukraine's membership into NATO. But others argue that there is no — there has been no consensus on Ukraine joining NATO for over a decade, and, after three years of war, one million killed and wounded, the fact is that Ukraine is simply not going to be able to reseize all of its territory, so pragmatism has to temper principle, says the Council on Foreign Relations' Charlie Kupchan.

Charles Kupchan, Former National Security Council Official:

The principle is that Ukraine should restore territorial integrity and get back every inch of its country. In reality, Ukraine can't do that because it doesn't have the military capability to do so. And, as a consequence, a deal that basically says that Russia stays for now on those parts of Ukraine it occupies and the rest of Ukraine gets on with life as a free, secure, independent country, that's a deal that Ukraine should take.

Nick Schifrin:

What's next, Amna?

European, U.S. and Ukrainians said today they will have future talks. And Steve Witkoff, the presidential envoy, goes to Moscow to meet Putin on Friday.

Amna Nawaz:

You will be following it all.

Nick Schifrin, thank you very much.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.