What we know — and don’t know — about the U.S. strikes in Yemen

Geoff Bennett:

Overnight, the U.S. launched what analysts are describing as one of the largest bombing missions in Yemen in years, targeting what the U.S. says are Houthi leaders and terrorist infrastructure.

The Trump administration's campaign against Yemen has been going on for about two weeks now. But the military action has been overshadowed by the messages sent by the national security officials in the commercial messaging app Signal leading up to and after the strikes.

Nick Schifrin is here to update us.

Nick, it's great to see you.

So, looking at the policy, what is the military currently bombing and how is that different from the Biden administration?

Nick Schifrin:

Yes, the Trump administration has launched many missile strikes and jet and drone sorties to target what the U.S. identifies as Houthi leaders, their air defense, and weapons manufacturing and storage.

One of the differences with the Biden administration's approach, according to military officials, is delegating authorities down to the commanders, allowing them more leeway on the timing and the targets. And that is the other difference. The Trump campaign has expanded the targets to include Houthi leaders and Houthi technical experts, what the military would call the Houthi's network, says retired Admiral Kevin Donegan, the former commander of U.S. Navy Middle East.

Adm. Kevin Donegan (Ret.), Former Commander, U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet: And includes leadership, but not in the sense that everyone with the last name of Houthis would necessarily be targeted.

It would be leadership of those that are doing training, teaching of those that have the understanding of how to employ these weapons, that put them together and build them. And, Nick, I talked about it being very similar to what we did against al-Qaida or ISIS or al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula right here in Yemen.

Nick Schifrin:

Other former U.S. officials, Geoff, have told me that the U.S. did not have the intelligence going into this campaign to target all of the Houthi leaders. But as the bombs start falling, those leaders start moving, they start communicating, creating more intelligence.

As for the goal of this campaign, now, remember how this started. Houthi attacks force commercial shipping lanes — and you see those lanes moving around the world right there — commercial shippers to change their routes, including all the way around Africa. That drove up costs. That reduced exports.

It has been a longstanding U.S. goal to keep shipping lanes open, says Donegan, who spent decades in the military.

Adm. Kevin Donegan (Ret.):

We, as a country, have had a stated objective in our national security strategy for every administration that I served under that said it's in our national interests to keep the sea lanes open for the flow of conflict.

Geoff Bennett:

So, Nick, do analysts believe that this effort can work where previous efforts have failed?

Nick Schifrin:

It's a key question. The Saudis launched seven years of airstrikes against the Houthis. The Biden administration and the coalition launched airstrikes against Houthis last year, as have the Israelis. The Houthis are still in Yemen.

The Trump administration airstrikes are extensive. Take a look at this map. These are the sites bombed in just the last four days. You see the yellow dots right there, according to the independent Live Universal Awareness Map.

The Houthis have admitted some 70 fatalities since these airstrikes began. But, Geoff, analysts say that they can regroup unless the air campaign is combined with a strategy to dislodge Houthis from the land they control, says Mohammed Al-Basha, an analyst who founded the independent Basha Report.

Mohammed Al-Basha, Founder, Basha Report:

Airstrikes alone, without supporting the ground forces, the Yemeni ground forces right now with regional backing, the Houthis, even if they're degraded to the highest level possible airstrikes will do, they will be able to regroup. They have been surviving airstrikes since 2004.

Nick Schifrin:

But officials have made it clear, Geoff, they are not trying to execute some kind of regime change in this part of Yemen.

So, Basha recommends a regional approach and the U.S. military trying very hard to avoid civilian casualties.

Mohammed Al-Basha:

They need to avoid targeting civilian infrastructure. They need to avoid giving the Houthis any mean or tools to use as propaganda that the airstrikes are killing civilians. And the most important thing after that is regional powers and the anti-Houthi coalition in Yemen need to sit down and figure out what's the Yemen policy, what's the day after.

Nick Schifrin:

One of the aspects of this, Geoff, Iran. Iran sends the Houthis anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, long-range drones. The military sent me a statement today — quote — "While the Houthis still do maintain capability, it's largely because of the nearly 10 years of support provided by Iran."

President Trump has made it clear he will hold Iran responsible for any Houthi attacks on U.S. ships in the Red Sea. And, tonight, there are new U.S. heavy bombers on an island in the Indian Ocean, a clear message to Iran.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes, indeed.

Lastly, Nick, we mentioned those Signal messages. What do those messages actually reveal substantively?

Nick Schifrin:

About this campaign?

Yes, Vice President Vance initially opposed the campaign, saying it would support Europe more than the U.S. He also was worried about the Houthis targeting Saudi oil facilities. They also revealed debate about the operation's goals. The vice president made it clear that President Trump wanted the goal to be to send a message, to project power.

But Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the goal should strictly be to restore navigation, prevent the Houthis from attacking U.S. assets, Geoff, and those are the goals that the U.S. is using publicly right now.

Geoff Bennett:

Nick Schifrin, our thanks to you, as always.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.