What’s next for the Middle East as Syria’s civil war is suddenly reignited

Amna Nawaz:

In Syria today, Russian and Syrian warplanes targeted civilian areas held by opposition fighters. And Turkey, which backs some of the multifaceted opposition, called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to negotiate.

It all comes days after rebels swept into parts of Northwest Syria that the regime had controlled for years and reignited a once-static war with broad implications for a region already embroiled in conflict.

Nick Schifrin reports.

And a warning:

Some of the images in this story are disturbing.

Nick Schifrin:

In opposition-held Idlib today, Russian scorched earth, airstrikes on behalf of its Syrian ally against Syrian civilians inside a hospital.

Russia has long targeted Syrians who oppose the regime. Today's strikes in Idlib and this weekend on Aleppo once again targeted victims who weren't even born when this 14-year-old war began. They are terrifying and forced civilians to flee, but, today, it is government forces on the run.

On Friday, "News Hour" Syria producer Abdul Razzaq Al-Shami filmed as rebels prepared a surprise assault. For the last nine years, the opposition in green has held most of Idlib province in Northwest Syria, the Kurds backed by the U.S. in yellow in the northeast, the regime and its allies in red, with pockets of land controlled by the Islamic State in purple.

Back in 2016, after five years of fighting, Syrian soldiers, with the help of Russian airstrikes and Iranian-backed militias, recaptured Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. Last week, a patchwork of opposition groups, the Islamist Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, designated by the U.S. as terrorists, and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army took Aleppo back in days.

On Friday morning, we filmed his opposition fighters open fire on Aleppo's outskirts. By 10:00 p.m. that night, fighters and civilians celebrated inside Aleppo after government forces melted away. This war had forced half the country to flee their homes, and now some of the opposition reunited with family they'd been separated from for nearly a decade.

By day, rebels tore down their tormentor. Regardless of their group, they're united in their hatred for the authoritarian leader who long ago chose to starve, slaughter and suffocate, rather than serve his people. And they unfurled the flag of free Syria.

Samer Al-Qarbi is an attorney who returned to his hometown, Aleppo, for the first time in eight years.

Samer Al-Qarbi, Returned Aleppo Resident (through interpreter):

Now is a good opportunity to return and build this country and get rid of the militias. Our aspiration is to be a nation of respect, a nation of freedom, a nation with foundations and a nation of its citizens.

Nick Schifrin:

Opposition fighters reached Aleppo's military academy, a former base for Syria and its Iran-backed allies.

Abdul Razzaq Al-Shami was with them.

Abdul Razzaq Al-Shami (through interpreter):

These rocket launchers you see behind me were used by Hezbollah, Iran, and Assad forces to fire rockets that targeted civilians in the western countryside of Aleppo. They caused the deaths and injuries of hundreds throughout the past few years.

Nick Schifrin:

The opposition's sweeping success in Aleppo is just the beginning, vowed political activist Muhammad Al Akhras.

Muhammad Al Akhras, Political Activist (through interpreter):

Now it started with the liberation of Aleppo. Until we liberate all of Syria, all Syrian soil from this ruling regime that has sat on Syrian's chest for some 60 years.

Nick Schifrin:

Today, Syrian soldiers said they're regrouping and fighting back. But the opposition expanded its fighting to nearby Hama province in Western Syria. The Assad regime struggles come as ally Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and allies Hezbollah and Iran have been diminished by Israel.

The Biden administration has been cautious in its comments on Syria, but today called for de-escalation and a political process to end the decade-plus civil war.

To explain and explore these latest developments, I'm joined again by Charles Lister, a senior fellow who focuses on this conflict at the Middle East Institute here in Washington.

Charles Lister, thanks very much. Welcome back to the "News Hour."

Why do you think the Syrian opposition has gone on the offensive now and why do you think it appears to have been so successful?

Charles Lister, Middle East Institute:

Well, I think, at the root of it, the crisis and the conflict inside Syria has been far from over for a very long time.

Yes, the lines of territorial control have been frozen for around four years, but conflict itself has been hot daily, 365 days a year, since 2020, when a major cease-fire was announced in 2020. So the armed opposition has been preparing itself for exactly this scenario for the last four years, intensively training, adding to their capabilities, and, of course, waiting for the right kind of timing.

The regional crisis, of course, I think has added to that. But, ultimately speaking, these armed groups believe that they could bring the fight to the regime, that they could defeat the regime on the battlefield.

And this offensive was meant to start in mid-October. It was paused for a while due to Turkish pressure. But then, of course, it began over the last week.

Nick Schifrin:

Most recently, we saw a cease-fire in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel. But, perhaps more relevantly, we have seen Hezbollah and Iran get pushed back by Israel and we see Russia bogged down in Ukraine, as we mentioned before.

How does that play into the timing of this?

Charles Lister:

Well, I think all of those things are accurate.

But at the same time, what we have really seen on the ground in Syria over the last 18-plus months is that none of those actors have actually substantively changed their presence on Syrian soil. Hezbollah remain on all of the same front lines that they have always been on. The Russian troop levels remain exactly the same. They have the same number of jets and air defense systems and everything else.

So, if there's any difference that all of those events have made, I would argue it's distraction. It's not resources. I think what's made the biggest difference is that the Syrian regime itself has stagnated over the last four-and-a-half years of so-called frozen conflict.

It has been increasingly kind of corrupted by organized crime that is rife within the Syrian military and within the intelligence apparatus that would traditionally have coordinated a response to this. And I think, frankly speaking, that's why we have seen the collapse in regime front lines.

Nick Schifrin:

The opposition group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, helped lead the offensive on Aleppo this weekend. The U.S. calls them terrorists. They are a former al-Qaida affiliate, but they say they have moderated. Have they?

Charles Lister:

Yes, they have moderated, but they also remain similarly problematic.

They have done away with their global agenda. They have genuinely broken away from al-Qaida, and that was a very combustible breakup back in 2016 and 2017. They have turned inward to Syria. They portray their actions and have done over the last five or so years in a more nationalist bent.

But, yes, their religious conservatism remains. And I think, ultimately, the test will come three or six months down the line as to whether or not HTS ends up being as kind of welcoming and as inclusive as it's claiming to be today with it being in control of Aleppo city. The early signs are positive, but this is very early days.

Nick Schifrin:

As we reported earlier, we have seen Russian airstrikes, as well as Russian and Iranian diplomatic support for Syria. We are seeing Iranian-backed militias from Iraq entering Syria.

Do you believe that will be enough to save the regime?

Charles Lister:

All the manpower that the regime can get at this point will help.

One of the main problems is that some of the regime's most capable military units were not on the northwestern front lines when this offensive took place, the elite Fourth Division run by Bashar al-Assad's brother Maher, another unit known as the 25th Special Tasks Division.

So both of those have been deployed onto the front line in a province called Hama. And that is where fighting has really intensified over the past 48 hours. On the other hand, there is another side of the picture here, which is that the HTS and various other opposition groups only have so much manpower at their disposal.

If they continue to try to push too deep or further deeply into Syria, they risk overstretching themselves and making themselves very vulnerable to a counterattack.

Nick Schifrin:

The U.S. has more than 800 soldiers in Northeast Syria aligned with Kurdish forces known as the SDF. And, in fact, we saw some of those Kurdish forces having to flee some of the territory they control over the last couple of days.

What's at stake for U.S. interests in this moment?

Charles Lister:

Well, for now, relatively little. The U.S. has a very minimal stake in Northwestern Syria.

I suppose the U.S. has more to worry about in terms of the knock-on effect that this is likely to have on ISIS' resurgence that is taking place in Central and Eastern Syria right now totally in parallel to these developments.

The real risk here is that the Syrian regime's most capable units that have been deployed in the central desert to try to challenge — frankly, incapably, but they have been trying to challenge ISIS, have all been removed. So, suddenly, in Central Syria, where ISIS has been rebuilding, there is a total vacuum.

And that is likely to have a very significant positive knock-on effect for ISIS, which will inevitably have a knock-on effect into the Northeast of Syria, where U.S. troops are present and were already, frankly, struggling to challenge that resurgence. And that will be all the more the case in the coming months.

Nick Schifrin:

Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute, thank you very much.

Charles Lister:

Thank you.