Why Alexei Navalny’s legacy after news of his death is ‘one of tragedy’ for Russians

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• Amna Nawaz:

  For more on Navalny's death and legacy, we're joined by Andrew Weiss. He is a former State Department official who served in the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations. He's now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

  Andrew, thank you for being here.

  Andrew Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: It's good to be here.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So let's begin with this.

  Knowing Navalny's work, knowing the threats he faced, were you surprised to hear this news?

• Andrew Weiss:

  Alexei Navalny has cheated death multiple times. The Kremlin gave it its all in August of 2020 by trying to poison him with a nerve agent.

  But the assassin squad had been stalking Navalny and his wife in the months prior. So the fact that it took years of pressure on him, the physical toil, we still don't know exactly what happened in this prison in the Arctic Circle. We may never know the exact circumstances of his death, but he was put in the most difficult situation imaginable.

• Amna Nawaz:

  And we should note his death is still unconfirmed. Do we have any reason, though, to doubt the news?

• Andrew Weiss:

  I don't suspect at this point that Alexei Navalny is still alive.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Does the timing of his death in any way stand out to you as significant?

  We are talking right now as world leaders are gathering in Munich, largely to try to strengthen the NATO alliance, largely to counter Russia. Does that say anything to you?

• Andrew Weiss:

  It's unclear if this was a deliberate act on the eve of this important gathering in Munich, where Vladimir Putin delivered a thunderous speech in 2007 and basically was signaling to the world that Russia would be on the march and would not put up with Western pressure on it anymore.

  The reality now is very different. Russia is feeling emboldened. The war in Ukraine is starting to cut their way. We have a presidential candidate, Donald Trump, of the United States who openly and gleefully embraces Vladimir Putin and wants to support Russia's line on Ukraine. We have deadlock in the U.S. Congress over continued military and economic support to Ukraine.

  So we're seeing a moment of great defiance.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Tell us more about Navalny, because he was easily, as we said, the most prominent political opponent and political prisoner in Russia. Why was he seen as such a threat to Putin and the Kremlin?

• Andrew Weiss:

  Well, let's put this in perspective.

  Russia's leader has stayed in power for nearly a quarter-century by, in Russian terms (Speaking in foreign language) which means lack of alternatives. So Vladimir Putin and his political team have cleared the landscape of any serious political opponent, save Navalny.

  And now, for years, going back to the period when Navalny was first put in prison in 2021, they have made sure that this person can't challenge Vladimir Putin. So there was no expectation ever that Vladimir Putin was going to let Navalny out, so long as Vladimir Putin was sitting in the Kremlin.

  At the same time, there is this kind of sadistic glee where the Kremlin has taunted Russian opposition politicians, including Navalny, has tried to show how tough they are, but it has been very sadistic in applying selective pressure and trying to show the average Russian that, keep your nose out of politics, the cost is going to be too grave.

• Amna Nawaz:

  What about the movement that he built? What happens to that now? Is there a Navalny in waiting in Russia?

• Andrew Weiss:

  Unfortunately, there's not.

  And the Russian opposition, such as it was, largely has fled the country in the wake of Russia's unprovoked and full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost exactly two years ago. And the movement was under intense pressure from the Russian authorities even in the months and years leading up to the attempted assassination of Alexei Navalny in the summer of 2020.

  So the movement, such as it, is largely in exile. You see it through its continued savvy work on YouTube, but there's no grassroots politics happening. And the last point I think it's also worth remembering is, the Russian popular reaction to Navalny is one of passivity, inertia and conformism.

  You don't see the stirrings of grassroots opposition to the Putin regime. The Putin regime largely sleeps comfortably in its bed.

• Amna Nawaz:

  You heard his wife there say Putin and the Kremlin must be held responsible. What does that look like? How should the U.S. and the allies respond right now?

• Andrew Weiss:

  Well, President Biden was pretty clear on this, that the United States and our European partners have put unprecedented economic pressure on the Russian government as a result of its aggression against Ukraine.

  We have seen a war that has cost Russia dearly in terms of the number of people killed and wounded. There is not a lot left in the toolkit, frankly, in terms of further economic sanctions that are going to make Vladimir Putin cry uncle.

  And I think we all need to be braced for a long-term period of confrontation with Russia. This is a formidable country. It's a country that has an intense grievance against the United States, and it has shown that it's willing to do pretty much anything to push back.

• Amna Nawaz:

  In the 30 seconds or so we have left, how would you summarize? What is Navalny's legacy?

• Andrew Weiss:

  I think the legacy is one of tragedy. I think it's incredibly bleak right now if you look at Russia's future.

  You have a country that is largely aging and, as I said earlier, sitting on the sidelines politically. People have gotten used to things that simply should not be acceptable, atrocities on the streets of major Ukrainian cities and towns, unprovoked aggression against a neighboring country that was not looking for trouble.

  So I think what we see is that Alexei Navalny was a symbol of hope for a lot of people that there could be generational renewal, but the hard men in the Kremlin have no interest in that happening.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Andrew Weiss from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, always good to speak with you. Thank you so much for being here.

• Andrew Weiss:

  Thank you, Amna.