Why NATO countries can’t agree on how to respond to Russia-Ukraine conflict

Judy Woodruff:

Today, President Biden clarified and corrected comments he made yesterday and said any Russian incursion into Ukraine would lead to a severe and united response by the U.S. and its allies.

In Berlin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also presented unity. But, as the president himself acknowledged yesterday, the transatlantic alliance is not unified over how to punish Russia.

Nick Schifrin explains.

Nick Schifrin:

In the city once-divided by the Cold War, America's top diplomat warned a that new war risked the values the West had won.

Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State: To allow Russia to violate those principles with impunity would drag us all back to a much more dangerous and unstable time, when this continent and this city were divided in two, separated by no-man's lands.

Nick Schifrin:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French and British diplomats to try and present a united front.

Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister (through translator):

Any further aggressive behavior or aggression would result in serious consequences. This is nothing less than a question of maintaining peace in Europe. For us, it is existential.

Antony Blinken:

That unity gives us strength, a strength, I might add, that Russia does not and cannot match.

Nick Schifrin:

But the unity rhetoric doesn't match the reality over how to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin, as President Biden acknowledged yesterday.

Joe Biden, President of the United States: Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera.

Nick Schifrin:

That acknowledgement of a fight among allies was a rare public admission of what's been privately clear.

In Germany, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would double the natural gas the European Union imports from Russia. It was completed last year, but Germany has indefinitely paused the certification process. The White House wants to use that pause as leverage over Russia. Privately, German officials say they would kill the pipeline, but, publicly, they won't admit that.

Earlier this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his most definitive hint, which still only went so far.

Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor (through translator):

It is clear that there will be high costs, and everything has to be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin:

Other European countries are worried about U.S. sanctions because they have their own business ties to Russia. The E.U. is Russia's largest trading partner. In countries along Russia's border, including Finland, Lithuania, and Estonia, Russian goods make up about a third of imports.

In contrast, Russia is the United States' 26th largest trading partner. And, in France, President Emmanuel Macron further broke Western unity yesterday when he said the E.U. should hold its own talks with Russia, rather than support the U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia talks from last week.

Emmanuel Macron, French President (through translator):

For both us and Russia, for the security of our continent, which is indivisible, we need that dialogue. We have to, as Europeans, lay out our own demands and put ourselves in a position where we can make sure they're respected.

Nick Schifrin:

Today, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded his own respect.

While visiting Poland's president, he tweeted a rejection of President Biden's comments yesterday. "There are no minor incursions in small nations," he wrote.

Today, President Biden tried to clean up his own remarks.

Joe Biden:

If any, any assembled Russian units move across Ukrainian border, that is an invasion, but — and it will be met with severe and coordinated economic response.

Nick Schifrin:

So how united are the U.S. and its European allies amid this crisis?

For more, we turn to Constanze Stelzenmuller, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

Constanze Stelzenmuller, welcome back to the "NewsHour."

As we heard, President Biden let slip yesterday that there would be a — quote — "fight among allies" over how to respond if Putin launched something short of a full invasion. Today, President Biden promised a — quote — "coordinated response."

Which Biden comment is more accurate?

Constanze Stelzenmuller, Brookings Institution:

You know, I think the problem here is they're both accurate, Nick.

By the way, thanks for having me on again.

I think, the more outrageous the Kremlin's demands and rhetoric are — and they really have been outrageous, both in those two papers they suggested we should sign immediately and the comments afterwards — the more united we are.

But the suggestion that the Russians might try something that's sort of hybrid, sort of mixed, with a little bit of military aggression and perhaps more disinformation, that's where it becomes technically, actually, quite difficult to define, what is aggression? What kind of response should that trigger, and what would be proportional, and who does it?

Nick Schifrin:

So, for example, if Russian troops invaded in the Donbass in Eastern Ukraine, where they invaded in the past and where they continue to support an insurgency, or if we see special sources, so-called little green men, inside Ukraine, but not an infantry, the allies would be less unified?

Constanze Stelzenmuller:

I don't think so. I think, at this point, our trigger levels are pretty low. I think anything that looks like an actual military response that is not little green men would, I think, create a very unified response.

What I'm worried about is sort of maybe if the Kremlin leaves us hanging, and then continues with a disinformation onslaught and cyber-campaigns and that kind of thing. I think that is what the president meant with something minor, really.

Nick Schifrin:

Let's go into some of the divisions we laid out in the piece.

In addition to Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas, there are business ties between the continent and Russia. How much does that restrain European capitals from supporting economic sanctions against Russia?

Constanze Stelzenmuller:

Well, the truth is that really forceful economic sanctions would have a lot of blowback on the European economy, because of the interdependence of European economies and their interdependence with Russia.

That is much are less significant for the U.S. economy. It just has to be said. That is a real difference. And then there are differences within Europe. Probably the most vulnerable is Germany. Then comes Italy, I'm told. And I think the question for us all is, how do we mitigate those differences in vulnerability, so that the Russians can't exploit us to strike a wedge in alliance cohesion?

Nick Schifrin:

One of the places the U.S. says Russia is trying to exploit the division is, of course, Nord Stream 2.

So why can't the German government say in public what German diplomats say in private, that there will be no Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades?

Constanze Stelzenmuller:

Yes, everyone's favorite pipeline.

The — my theory is this. It's that — I think, if you talk to German officials in private, as you said in your report, they are pretty clear that is one of the biggest albatrosses around the neck of German foreign policy ever.

But this is a private undertaking. It's actually factually correct to say that, if the chancellor does that. And if the government stops the suspension process and says, this will never go online, that would be in legal terms an exercise of eminent domain.

German courts take that kind of thing very seriously. And it happened after Angela Merkel took Germany out of nuclear power after the nuclear catastrophe in Japan in Fukushima in 2011, after the tsunami.

And so my suspicion is the legal advisers are being super careful here and saying, what we need is a clear case of force majeure, in other words, a clear-cut case of Russian attack, to be able to move to this without incurring legal damages in the billions, literally, probably 10 billions.

Nick Schifrin:

In general, Russia's neighbors, including former Soviet states, are more concerned about Russian actions, are more calling for aggressive deterrents, despite some of the trade ties we have mentioned, than are Western European countries.

Is there a divide between Western and Eastern Europe when it comes to how to treat Russia in this moment?

Constanze Stelzenmuller:

You know, I don't actually think so.

I mean, obviously, I watch the debate in my own country, Germany, most closely, but I do speak French and I watch other countries' debates. And I think that, in Germany, the mood towards Russia darkened significantly already after Russians — the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008.

And the real turning point, the game-changer was the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Yes, there are people who will sort of talk Russian talking points, but, usually, these are people who have — where you know there's a reason they do that.

But they're in the minority, and they are, with some exception, not senior — not senior policy-makers. And there is actually some agreement within this three-way coalition that now runs Germany on this. The disagreement is really between the left wing of some of those parties and the people who are in the Cabinet. That's an important distinction.

Can I say something about Macron, the speech yesterday?

Nick Schifrin:

Just only in about 10 seconds.

Sorry, Constanze.

Constanze Stelzenmuller:

Well, he has a point that we need to do more as Europeans. That is where he was right.

It was unhelpful to suggest that we need a new European Union security order, including the Russians, this week, with 100,000 troops on Russian borders and new Russian troops moving into Belarus.

Nick Schifrin:

We will have to leave it there.

Constanze Stelzenmuller, thank you very much.

Constanze Stelzenmuller:

You're very welcome. Thanks for having me on.