A look at Florida’s major races ahead of the midterms

Geoff Bennett:

Time now for our weekend briefing with the midterms now 44 days away, we're taking a closer look at some of the most competitive races around the country. And this evening, we're zeroing in on Florida. For that I'm joined by two top political strategists. Steve Schale ran Barack Obama's 2008 political campaign in Florida and has served as an advisor for lots of statewide races. And Al Cardenas is the former chair of the Florida Republican Party and served as an advisor for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush to do some technical issues. Mr. Cardenas is joining us by phone. It's great to have the both of you with us.

Steve Schale, Democratic Strategist:

Thanks for having me.

Al Cardenas, Former Chairman, Florida Republican Party:

It's my pleasure.

Geoff Bennett:

All right. So let's get down to it. And let's start with the Senate race between incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio and Congresswoman Val Demmings. Former Orlando Police Chief. She is polling and I just checked this, she's pulling about three points behind Rubio, according to The Real Clear Politics polling average, but she has outraised Rubio this cycle. She's spending more on TV ads. But the thing is, Steve, that Republicans now enjoy an advantage of more than 200,000 active registered voters than Democrats. So Steve, given that, can Val Demings make any real headway in this race?

Steve Schale:

I think she's got a tough climb. I think she's done a great job getting out early in defining herself I think, you know, again, obviously raised good money. I think the biggest challenge he has, frankly, is, you know, it's hard to get to a win in Florida as a Democrat if you're — if you're basically even in Miami-Dade County, and, you know, you have the combination of the Republicans are doing better with Hispanics, which I think is as much about Democrats not doing well with Hispanics.

And you've got the fact that Rubio has a hometown advantage there. I think she's going to keep it close. Yes, I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she has no chance. But I think it's a pretty uphill climb, unfortunately.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's talk about this Supreme Court Dobbs decision, because that really shifted the landscape across the country and certainly in Florida. And last month, Senator Rubio said in an interview that he believed that abortion should be decided at the state level. But now he's co-sponsoring a bill with Senator Lindsey Graham that would impose a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Al, what impact might Rubio's stance on that issue have in this race?

Al Cardenas:

Well, most of our polls show that the Supreme Court decision favors Democrats and I think it's a 62, 63 percent disapproval rate in our counterparts decision. So the question is how much you will impact turnout at the polls? I think that that makes Rubio race might be a close one for three reasons. One, most statewide races or 20 year, 30 years have been decided by two points or less in Florida, for the Senate and for the governorship. And so this is one of those races.

You know, being within three or four points on Election Day means you've got a shot, because nobody has measured that turnout rates until the end of election. And so, you know, early voting, absentee voting will give us a hint as to work turnout is and also she has money which many Senate Democrat candidates do not around the country.

So, I wouldn't say this is a race to watch. It certainly leans Republican. But it's not out of the question that Val Demings will have a chance if and that's a big if Democrats win the turnover battle includes perhaps by the Supreme Court abortion decision.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's talk about the governor's race there in Florida because Republicans in recent years, they've made inroads with some Latino voters, Hispanic voters. But after sending about 50 migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Governor Ron DeSantis is now facing not only backlash from some Venezuelan voters in Florida, but he's also got a class action lawsuit and other legal scrutiny as well.

Al, you know, DeSantis has been maintaining a lead. He has a fairly high favorable approval rating in Florida. But can this issue give his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist? Could that give him an opening here?

Al Cardenas:

I don't know. I don't know the answer to that. And the reason why I don't know the answer to that is the press has been predictably very tough on Governor DeSantis regarding that issue, for a host, a whole host of reasons not just immigration, and whether that has more legs to run for next few weeks or not. We'll have to see how that goes.

But right now, look, Governor DeSantis won by 35,000 votes last time, which is far less than 1 percent. As I said earlier, you know, these elections in Florida are decided by our percentage of votes. Although Republicans for the last two or three years have made it a huge gain in voter registration. The DeSantis race looks like there's a wider gap than in the Senate race in his favor. Because Charlie Crist doesn't count with the resources that Democrats have given Val Demings on the Senate race.

And so Charlie Crist had to go dark for a few weeks on TV, and that's not to hurt him. DeSantis ads on TV are pretty effective. I would say, this race I would put on the Republican column unless something happens. But don't be surprised if on election day, it's two or three points victory.

Geoff Bennett:

Steve on that point, I mean, why aren't Democrats marshaling more money and more resources into Florida to give Crist more of a fighting chance?

Steve Schale:

Yes, I think the biggest problem is you have a lot of donors who've, like they put a lot of money before the last few cycles that has been worked out. And I think DeSantis getting out there and raising so much money early has given him a huge advantage. I mean, I do without completely there's no reason why Florida couldn't be it shouldn't be competitive.

The voter registration thing is as much about Republicans having lost fewer voters and Democrats, the biggest gainer among independents. And so I think that there is definitely an opportunity here. The biggest challenge is, you know, I think Democrats around the country are triaging money in other states where we need to kind of win Senate races that moves this race down the down the totem pole.

But I do think if you saw a few polls come in that shot, Crist, pretty close. I think somebody would come in wait. I certainly agree with Al but, you know, there's no reason to write either one of these races off now. I just think it's an uphill climb for my party and both of them at the moment.

Geoff Bennett:

Al Cardenas and Steve Schale, thanks so much for your time.