Analyzing the results of several key midterm races

Judy Woodruff:

And for more analysis of what the results so far look like in several key races, let's go over to Lisa, who's joined by Amna Nawaz.

Amna Nawaz:

That's right, Judy.

As the dust is still settling in this day after voting has ended in these elections, a number of races still get to be called the least.

Lisa Desjardins:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

But, Lisa, when you look at the balance of power in the House, where do we stand?

Lisa Desjardins:

This is the ball game right now, Amna. Look at this.

Here's where we have all the seats in the House right now. The Associated Press says 207 races have been called for the Republicans, 183 for Democrats. They're still short, the Republicans, of the 218 they need for control.

Now, I have been counting very carefully what's been happening overnight. I show that the Republicans right now have a net of plus-six seats. That is enough if it holds, but who knows if it holds, because there are still these seats remaining.

Let's look at what's going on across the country, where these races have been happening. Now, where did Republicans do well? New York state, Amna, interestingly enough, is where they had a number of pickups. But you see all of these dark gray seats. These are the many seats we have outstanding. How many are there?

I'm glad I asked myself, because I'm going to answer myself.

(LAUGHTER)

Lisa Desjardins:

Let's look at how many seats are remaining.

There are 30 races unresolved at this hour right now, about 30; seven of those races are within a single point. Some of those could go to an automatic recount if they stay this way. Republicans, when you look at these unresolved races, do have more pickup chances than Democrats.

Amna Nawaz:

We have talked again and again about how careful the Associated Press is being in making those race calls. They will wait until there's no mathematical way the trailing candidate can make it up.

You're tracking some of those really close races.

Lisa Desjardins:

Yes.

And these are races we have been talking about with our viewers before. So let's see where we are here. Nevada 3, this is where Tess Conciatori, our producer, and I traveled just I think — was it last week? It feels like a year ago.

Democrats Susie Lee, the incumbent, she is leading by — what is the margin now? It looks like just over 1,500 votes over April Becker, the Republican in this race. This is one area — this is a seat that a lot of Democrats thought they would not be able to hold.

But that's kind of the story of the night, right, Democrats holding against this potential wave. Let's look to Connecticut, what's going on another, one of these vulnerable Democrats, Jahana Hayes, the former national teacher of the year. Look at that margin, 50/50 again.

Amna Nawaz:

Look at that margin.

Lisa Desjardins:

Again, within just about 2,000 votes, 95 percent of the expected vote.

This is a race I'm watching for a potential recount there in Waterbury, Danbury area, where the Desjardins family is known well.

(LAUGHTER)

Lisa Desjardins:

Now, then, we also want to go to another one, Arizona's Second District. This is it different picture.

Democrat Tom O'Halleran is the incumbent. Right now, he is down significantly, eight points; 86 percent of the expected vote is in, according to the Associated Press. Eli Crane is a first-time candidate right here, Republican. He's someone who has been openly pro-Trump, America first.

He is someone who has run on election integrity. He has not that I have seen crossed the line into saying 2020 was stolen, but he's raised those kinds of doubts. He's a character. He is a former — I'm saying all this because I think we're going to hear a lot about this man if he gets into Congress. He's someone who was a Navy SEAL, retired Navy SEAL..

And I think he is going to have a big persona in Congress if he is elected.

Amna Nawaz:

And we're waiting for a call on this raise, 86 percent of the expected vote in.

Lisa Desjardins:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Lisa, many of these races we knew would be competitive, right? There's one in Colorado I want to highlight that they did not expect, Dems did not expect to be…

(CROSSTALK)

Lisa Desjardins:

I suspect some of our viewers are — get to this race. Lauren Boebert, she is someone who also has a very big persona.

She right now is down in her race. This is a surprise for Democrats and Republicans and I think Representative Boebert as well. She is been outmatched right now by Adam Frisch. He is a former councilman for the Aspen City Council. He's someone who ran, he — his — I think one of his campaigns staffers told NPR, on a policy of trying to put together a coalition of normal.

The — Lauren Boebert, on the other hand, is someone who has run to make a very loud point. Right now, voters in this district want the coalition of normal by just a little bit, 96 percent of the vote in. We will be watching this race.

Amna Nawaz:

Could not get any closer.

Meanwhile, we have talked again and again about how election denialism has been on the ballot. This is the first big test for that. You're tracking that in some key gubernatorial races.

Lisa Desjardins:

I think the prime race that people are watching here is, of course, the Arizona governor's race, and I think our Stephanie Sy ill be talking more. She has been doing an incredible job there in Maricopa County.

Right now, another 50/50 — we're not making this up. But, right now, Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state is winning by just about 4,000 votes over Kari Lake, the former TV news anchor, but just 67 percent of the expected vote in here.

This race could go back and forth again still. We're going to watch it carefully. Now, Kari Lake is someone who has run on a platform of saying the 2020 election was stolen, saying that's why she wants to come into power and to change how she believes votes are handled in that state and how elections are handled.

Let's look at other deniers, as we call them, of the 2020 election who have no found — we should say, of course, evidence for that. These — in this column are those that we have categorized in that way. They have been out front on this. And look at what's happened overnight. Almost all of them have lost their races.

Some of them have been in highly competitive races, including Michigan, Wisconsin. The only one to win right now, Kay Ivey in Alabama. She's an incumbent governor. So that's not a surprise. That's one of the stories of tonight.

Let's also talk about secretaries of state. I should say last night. It feels like the same night.

(LAUGHTER)

Lisa Desjardins:

Secretaries of state, an important race here.

Jim Marchant, he is the secretary state Republican candidate in Nevada. He is someone who has put together a coalition together of like-minded election denier candidates who say they're fighting for America. But here in Nevada, he is winning. His opponent says, no, he's actually harming democracy. Most of these kinds of candidates have been losing. In Nevada right now, he is ahead with 77 percent of the vote.

We will keep watching.

Amna Nawaz:

We will keep watching those and all those other races that we know are still as yet too close to call — Judy, back to you.

Judy Woodruff:

So interesting. And I know you will keep watching.

Thank you, Lisa. And thank you, Amna.