Brooks and Capehart on the 2024 campaign as Republican candidates headline big GOP events

Geoff Bennett:

As the 2024 presidential race heats up, several Republican hopefuls are headed to Indianapolis and Nashville for the NRA's annual convention and the Republican National Committee donor retreat this weekend.

We turn now to the analysis of Brooks and Capehart. That's New York Times columnist David Brooks and Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post.

It's great to see you both.

Jonathan Capehart:

Hey, Geoff.

David Brooks:

Good to be with you.

Geoff Bennett:

And let's start by talking about guns and abortion, two issues that dominated the headlines this week, two issues on which Republicans have achieved their political and policy goals, but that are potentially threatening the party's long-term political viability.

David, Governor Ron DeSantis last night quietly signed a six-week abortion ban into law. The only evidence we have of it is that photo that he tweeted out. Very different than when he made a big event of signing a 15-year ban into law last year.

David Brooks:

Fifteen-week ban, yes.

Geoff Bennett:

Or 15-week ban into law.

David Brooks:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

So, what might that suggest about the politics of the moment?

David Brooks:

Apparently, only women live in Florida, because they're all women. And he wanted to make a point.

The — abortion was obviously a big issue for the Democrats in the midterms, and a lot of Democrats think abortion will be a big issue for them in 2024, and it could be.

But let me make the case for against that. First, if you ask people what issue — first of all, only 68 — 68 percent of Americans basically agree with 10 Democrats on these issues. So it is a minority position the Republicans have embraced.

But if you ask people, what do you really care about, abortion is way down there. It's about 5 percent of people care. But if you look at what people really care about, it's obviously the economy, protecting democracy is really big, and so it just may not be a salient issue, as it has not been in most presidential races.

Second, Brian Kemp, governor of Georgia, also signed in a very aggressive anti-abortion measure, did not seem to hurt him at all in his race against Stacey Abrams this time. And then, finally, I now think it's likely that Donald Trump will be on the ballot in 2024. And so Donald Trump will be the only issue in 2024.

And so that would be my case for why it may not be as powerful as it was last time.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Jonathan, a six-week ban could spell trouble for DeSantis, one, if he runs, but, two, if he makes it into the general election trying to get independents and suburban voters on his side.

Jonathan Capehart:

Absolutely.

And I'm going to take issue. I'm going to answer your question and take issue with what David said. I disagree that abortion is an issue that isn't top of mind.

Maybe, if you ask specifically about abortion, but when you wrap it into the overall threats to liberty, attack on liberty, voting rights, abortion rights, and other things that are happening in school libraries, that people look at that, look at what's happening in Florida, looking at what happened with the Texas decision, and see, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, this is not what we want.

And so, yes, this is a great issue for Democrats. But what we saw in Kansas over the summer, what we saw in Wisconsin just a couple of weeks ago, is that this is quickly not becoming a nonpartisan issue. This is becoming an issue where women who are Democrats, independents and Republicans, and particularly the Republicans might not say a whole lot, but they make their voices heard at the ballot box.

And we have seen it in two places, and I think we will continue to see that, which is why Governor DeSantis, hiding under the cover of darkness, signing in a six-week abortion ban, might play well in the only place where the red wave hit last November, but it's not going to play well if he is the candidate — if he is a candidate for president or any Republican running for president in 2024.

Geoff Bennett:

On Jonathan's point about this playing well in places where the red wave hit, there were Republicans, base Republicans, who sort of derisively referred to Florida as a sanctuary state of the South, because it had less restrictive abortion policies up until now.

And there are people who say that DeSantis took this step of signing the six-week ban to make the point that he is a reliable — he's a reliable anti-abortion voice.

David Brooks:

Yes, you have got to be there in the Republican Party. You have to be at six weeks now.

I thought they would have been saner to settle at 15 to 20, but six weeks is where you got to be. And I think there's going to be complete unanimity.

To preserve what's the wreckage of my case for why it won't matter…

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:

… I would say a couple of things. First, it wasn't only DeSantis — or it wasn't only Brian Kemp who did fine. DeSantis, he was pretty clear where he was going on abortion. He did fine. Greg Abbott in Texas, he did fine.

And then I just think, presidential races is — when voters can say, I want my voice heard on abortion, like in Kansas or in Wisconsin, then they're going to make their voices heard. But a presidential race is the sum total of where this country is going, and they tend to be highly polarized.

And so will independent voters be moved on this issue? Maybe. I — maybe Jonathan will be right. It's the future. We could either be right.

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:

But I will wait to be heard.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, let's shift our focus to the debate around gun safety, because some of the current and potential Republican presidential candidates, they're addressing the NRA's convention in Indianapolis.

We have a picture of the folks who are planning to address that convention. I think you might see Mike Pompeo there. He apparently told FOX News tonight that he's actually not going to seek the presidency. So you can mark an X by his name.

David Brooks:

I will never smile again.

(LAUGHTER)

Geoff Bennett:

But, David, even as the NRA — I mean, it's a shell of its former self, in terms of its influence, in terms of its campaign spending, but you still see Republican after Republican flocking to that convention, even as Nashville and Louisville are mourning the massacres in their cities.

David Brooks:

Yes, I think what's happened with the gun issue is, there's been an evolution in Republican world about it. It was, why do we want to have guns? We feel unsafe. We want to be able to protect ourselves.

And that's a position you can argue with, but it's a position. And then it became a cultural issue, a cultural sign. You support guns because you don't like those Northeastern elitists telling us what to do.

But, over the last couple, three or four, it's migrated into a form of idolatry where, if you're a Republican congressman, you're sending out a Christmas card, what are you going to do? Of course, you're going to gather a family around the tree with your assault rifles. Like, that's just what you do.

And that's the MAGA-ization of the Republican Party, where it's become aggressive, cultural, own the libs. And so, in a weird way, the gun issue is always going to be salient in the Republican Party, but it's morphed into an unreasonable version of what was already, in my view, pretty unreasonable.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Well, Jonathan, I mean, on the left, gun safety has not been as potent an issue as abortion access or public perceptions of Donald Trump and his influence. Might that change?

Jonathan Capehart:

Oh, I mean, I would take issue with that.

I think gun safety has been a big issue. It's just that now we are living through a time where we have children who are living through their second mass shooting event at school.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, in a sense that voters don't always cite gun safety as their top issue.

Jonathan Capehart:

Oh, sure. That may be, but let's see what people say come 2024 as we get into the presidential elect and as we go through yet another period of mass shootings.

I mean, we're talking about — the donor conferences is in Nashville, where six people were killed. Three of them were children. And the Republican legislature, what did they do? They kicked out two Democrats who were advocating on behalf of people who were mowed down in a mass shooting.

I think this aspect of owning the libs is, they don't realize that their own constituents are dying. Their own constituents want something done about this. And the fact that they don't feel any compunction to do anything about it, because of the NRA, even though it's a shell of its former — of its former self, says a lot about the NRA, but says a whole lot more about the Republican Party.

Geoff Bennett:

How do you see it?

David Brooks:

Yes, again, playing — I could play the moralist and what I think about guns, but we probably don't disagree too much about that.

Just as the cold-hearted political pundit, again, A, it's low down when you ask people, what are you going to vote on? Two, it used to be a very powerful issue for Democrats when they were running at Republicans who are in affluent suburbs, Northern Virginia, Delaware County, Pennsylvania, Winnetka, Illinois.

Those places have already all turned Democrats. So there's not a lot of pickup to be picked up anymore, because those former Republican places have shifted. And then the final thing I will say is, where's this presidential election probably going to be fought out? Well, the Democrats put their convention in Chicago for a reason. It's the Upper Midwest.

And so will the gun issue be an issue that will help you win rural voters in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Illinois? Well, not Illinois. But those Upper Midwest states? Maybe. But I'm not saying whether it's right or wrong. I'm just trying to access whether I think it will be a powerful issue.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, as we wrap up our conversation, let's talk about Democratic Dianne Feinstein.

She says she plans on serving out her term, despite growing calls for her to resign. She's 89 years old. She hasn't cast a vote in the U.S. Senate since February 16. She's missed nearly 60 of the Senate's 82 votes so far this session.

Jonathan, what do you make of the Democratic pressure on her, to include a tweet from Congressman Ro Khanna, who said, "We need to put the country ahead of personal loyalty" and calling for her to step down?

Jonathan Capehart:

It was a very aggressive move by the California Congressman, but he got an assist from Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who said, let's give her some time.

But there's an issue there on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which I think Lisa Desjardins pointed out very well, that the whole goal of the Senate majority is to, let's get some judges through. Let's get the presidential nominations through.

And you can't do that if you don't have a functioning Democratic majority on the Judiciary Committee. And so I think what we're going to see over the coming weeks, especially with the Senate coming back into session, may be a growing call. Something needs to be done. If there were a 60-seat Democratic majority, no one would care about this. The Senate would function.

But it can't function when it doesn't have a key vote on a key committee.

Geoff Bennett:

What's your take on this perceived pressure campaign?

David Brooks:

I…

Geoff Bennett:

It's not happening in a vacuum. I mean, there's an active campaign to replace her in California.

David Brooks:

Yes. No, one might have ulterior motives.

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:

I don't think Ro Khanna does. He may want to run for senator maybe someday.

Jonathan Capehart:

He's not. He said he's not running.

David Brooks:

He's not. He's not.

But I have extremely high regard for Ro Khanna. And so when he said that, I thought, ooh. And so this is a question that we can solve. If she has a press conference and she can volley answers, questions and answers, issue over. And so have I been — seen senators who were not capable of that and were still serving?

Yes. I was around Strom Thurmond at the end.

Geoff Bennett:

Is there a double standard, do you think? I mean, far be it for three men to sit here and talk about whether there's a double standard.

David Brooks:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

But what do you think?

David Brooks:

Yes, I — well, I will — well, she sits on this unique committee that's important.

But I certainly have been around members of the Senate who were not up to their job. Let's put it that way.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Jonathan?

Jonathan Capehart:

Yes, it's a double standard generally.

But I do think, because of the issue with the Judiciary Committee — and, also, let's also keep in mind that it's not so much the age that's the issue, because folks keep talking about Bernie Sanders running for president. He's, if not in his 80s, almost. But it's about her health, and her health as she's recovering from shingles now.

But before then, there were questions about her mental — her mental acuity, her mental fitness. And I think that's what's also feeding this. This isn't coming from out of nowhere.

Geoff Bennett:

Jonathan Capehart and David Brooks, my thanks to you both. Have a good weekend.

Jonathan Capehart:

Thanks, Geoff.

David Brooks:

Thank you.

Jonathan Capehart:

You too.