Deadly explosion reported in Poland as Russia unleashed missile barrage on Ukraine

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• Judy Woodruff:

  A deadly blast in Poland is sending shockwaves across NATO tonight.

  The U.S. and Western allies say they are investigating reports of an explosion in NATO member Poland which killed two people. Local media reported the explosion at a grain facility in an eastern village a few miles north of the border with Ukraine. U.S. officials say they cannot confirm any details, while Moscow denies striking targets in or near Poland.

  President Biden is in Indonesia tonight, and he spoke by phone with the president of Poland a short time ago. He offered full U.S. support for assistance with Poland's investigation, and he reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to NATO.

  Meantime, across Ukraine, Russia unleashed destruction with missiles targeting infrastructure throughout the country. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out in the western city of Lviv, and rolling blackouts were ordered by Ukraine energy authorities.

  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about all this in his nightly address to his people, and specifically about the blast in Poland.

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President (through translator):

  What we warned about for a long time happened today. Terror is not limited to our national borders. To strike NATO territory with missiles is a Russian strike on collective security. It's a significant escalation. Action is required. Terror will not break free people.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Exploring the — officials are exploring the possibility that the explosion was caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile, but Ukrainians deny that.

  And, late today, Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, asking for a meeting of the alliance to discuss a possible attack on a member state.

  For more on all of this, we turn to Ivo Daalder. He served as U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration. He's now the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

  Ivo Daalder, welcome back to the "NewsHour."

  What do you make of everything you have heard so far tonight?

  Ivo Daalder, Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO: Well, in war, you live in a fog, and we need to find all the information that we possibly can.

  The latest reports is that the Polish foreign minister has said that it was indeed a Russian missile. There were earlier reports that it might have been an air defense missile that the Ukrainians were shooting. They were defending their territory. There were almost 100 missiles that the Russians shot at civilian locations in Ukraine.

  So we need to have some sense of whether this was a deliberate attack against NATO territory or whether it was a stray missile. But it also shows that we're in a very, very dangerous situation.

  Poland invoking Article 4, which is an article that says we need to consult if one of the members has a — perceives a threat to their security, is exactly the right thing to do. The meeting will take place tomorrow morning in Brussels. They will start talking about, what are the facts, what do we know, and then how would we respond?

• Judy Woodruff:

  And we're hearing just in the last moment or so that the Polish officials have also-called in Russia's ambassador to speak with Polish leaders. So they are moving on several fronts tonight.

  Ivo Daalder, so the possibilities at this point are several, that it could have been the Russians, that it could have been either a mistake or a deliberate move by the Russians, or it could have been the Ukrainians. But the Ukrainians deny that.

• Ivo Daalder:

  Yes.

  So, it wouldn't have been the Ukrainians shooting it Poland. That makes — that makes no sense. But there are targets in Western Ukraine, including the city of Lviv, which was bombed by rockets throughout the day, and there were — at the time that this event occurred, some time in the afternoon, the Russians were shooting missiles in this area.

  A Ukrainian air defense missile intercepting the Russian missile could have been misfired or possibly intercepted the Russian missile and fragments falling on the territory of Poland. So that's a possibility.

  But what we really have to find out is, was this deliberate or not? Because if it is — if it was deliberate, that is an armed attack on a NATO country, and would lead to serious consequences. I doubt it was a deliberate attack. But that's exactly the kind of thing we now need to find out.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Well, if it were deliberate, what would those serious consequences be? What would the West do? Are we talking about a military response?

• Ivo Daalder:

  Well, if it was deliberate, then it would be an armed attack on a NATO ally. And the NATO allies would have to agree whether at that point to invoke Article 5, which says an armed attack against one is an attack against all.

  The response could be military. It could be political. It could be economic. It could be a combination of the three. At the very least, I think what you're going to see is more aid to the Ukrainians, particularly air defense capabilities that the Ukrainians have long called for and the allies have been trying — trying to get to them as quickly as possible, and a beefing up of the defense of Poland and of the border, perhaps the deployment of anti-rocket and anti-air defense systems in Poland, like the Patriots that we have long deployed in this part of the world.

  So — and I would assume that we will see more sanctions, more specific sanctions on people responsible for ordering this attack, whether it was the attack that was deliberately targeting Poland or not, and that kind of thing.

  A direct military response, I think at this point is unlikely. It's possible that we might target the very unit that — from which this missile was coming from. I imagine that, in a day or two, we will be able to find out where that unit is, whether it's an air — was shot from an airplane or from a ground-launch system.

  But there is also an interest, of course, by NATO not to escalate this further. We are not interested in starting World War III, even if Putin is conducting a war that is bringing us to the brink.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And — but are you saying you do believe it will be possible to determine if this were an accident by the Russians, a mistaken — a missile that went off course, or if it was deliberate?

  How confident are you that that determination can be made?

• Ivo Daalder:

  I think we're going to find ways, both from our intelligence services and looking at the trajectories of the attacks that were taking place, to determine whether this was deliberately targeted on Polish territory, or, more likely, was a stray missile.

  We have also got to remember what the target was. It was a grain silo in a very small village right at the border. Seems to be an unlikely military target for a deliberate attack. On the other hand, if Putin is trying to test Western resolve, he might be doing exactly that, hitting a target that is not necessarily strategic or militarily significant, in order to see how the West would respond.

  That's what we need to do tomorrow when NATO gets together and has this discussion. And I think the important thing is that NATO needs to remain united, stand in solidarity, in the way that President Biden has already done in his conversations with President Duda, and the entire alliance stand united to make clear to Vladimir Putin, you're not going to break this alliance, and you're not going to stop us from helping Ukraine to defend itself.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, thank you.

• Ivo Daalder:

  My pleasure.

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