Democratic strategist breaks down latest poll numbers in potential Biden-Trump rematch

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• Amna Nawaz:

  Recent polls, including our own, show President Joe Biden simultaneously gaining ground and stuck in a dead heat with former President Donald Trump should the 2024 presidential race become a 2020 rematch.

  Joining me now is veteran Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir. He served as the campaign manager for Bernie Sanders in 2020.

  Faiz, good to see you.

• Faiz Shakir, Democratic Strategist:

  Hi, Amna.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Let's talk about what seems to be some good news for the Biden campaign from our latest "PBS NewsHour"/NPR/Marist poll. His overall approving — approval rating has actually gone up from a year ago five points, 36 percent to 41 percent.

  And, today, more Democrats support him as the nominee than did a year ago. That's according to polling from The New York Times and Siena College. That's up from 26 percent to 45 percent. What do you think is behind those numbers increasing for Mr. Biden over the last year?

• Faiz Shakir:

  Well, certainly, the economy is in a strong place.

  I think most Democrats understand this president has acted as one that is moving the progressive dial for the Democratic Party. He acts more like a prime minister than a president. He has to manage a coalition in which you have Joe Manchin to Bernie Sanders and keep all of them generally happy, moving in the same direction.

  So it's a very hard job. And you see the challenges that he has to constantly confront to keep that coalition together. But there's going to be moments, there's going to be challenges for him where people get disinterested, dissatisfied, not as excited, not as enthused. And he's going to have to get them there.

  But you sense that, as the election is kicking up, there's more people coming back into that coalition.

• Amna Nawaz:

  And we know voters still do have some concerns. His age chief among them is something they listed, job performance.

  When you look at the current Democratic field, because he does have a couple of challengers, Mr. Biden is still far out ahead of both of them, Robert Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson. You see some of the latest numbers there.

  But half of all Democrats polled say they would prefer someone new, and that's leading to a new conversation. I just want to play for you a clip we have heard from Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips, who said he himself is considering a run. And he was answering questions about this recently. Take a listen.

• Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN):

  My call is to those who are well-positioned, well-prepared, have good character and competency — they know who they are — to jump in, because Democrats and the country need competition.

• Major Garrett, CBS News:

  So, if they don't, you will?

• Rep. Dean Phillips:

  I'm not saying I will. Look, I think I'm well-positioned to be president to the United States.

• Major Garrett:

  You do?

• Rep. Dean Phillips:

  I do not believe I'm well-positioned to run for it right now. People who are should jump in, because we need to meet the moment.

• Amna Nawaz:

  You agree with that?

• Faiz Shakir:

  I like primaries. You know I ran Bernie Sanders' campaign.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes. Yes.

• Faiz Shakir:

  I don't mind primaries at all.

  I do think that they understand that Joe Biden is a pretty strong candidate right now. So I think, if you hear Dean Phillips, he's not assessing his own strength as being particularly good at defeating Joe Biden.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Faiz Shakir:

  That said, I do think that one of the things we're all missing and lacking from President Biden is this desire that — of what a competitive primary produces.

  He'd be out there campaigning. He'd be doing debates. He'd be doing press conferences. He'd be engaging with voters. We have largely seen a president behind a podium, right, largely delivering teleprompter remarks. And I think what a campaign does is cause you to engage with real people.

  And I hope that, as he comes out of this break, that President Biden his team are thinking about how you animate this presidency, because it needs to speak more to the heart than the head, right? He's got to campaign. If you think of Bidenomics, it's really trying to say, rationally, the economy is working for you.

  And, yes, there are improvements in the economy, but he's going to speak to people's hearts, make them enthused, make them excited about this economy. And part of that is in friction, a fight. Who's this president engaged and fighting, and not just partisan one, but a fight against corporate America is robbing you of your wages, fighting to concentrate an economy that doesn't work for you, and I'm taking those people on.

  So I think he's got to animate some of these fights.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  But do you agree with Phillips, there's someone out there who's well-positioned who's not running?

• Faiz Shakir:

  Oh, I doubt that.

  Yes, I doubt that. I think he's consolidated a lot of the Democratic field. That said, he's got to animate it. He's got to get people excited again. And then, obviously, Donald Trump will do his part on the Republican side to animate a lot of Democratic voters.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Well, speaking of that — and, again, I should also point to another number that could cause some concern within the Biden camp when you look at a potential head-to-head matchup between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.

  They're tied right now in a general election matchup at 43 percent. Also worth noting, 14 percent said they either wouldn't vote or didn't answer right now. What do those numbers say to you?

• Faiz Shakir:

  Amna, you have to look at the people who didn't answer and they — this is a class-based argument.

  People with a college degree, they love Joe Biden. They're about 50 percent. People without a college degree making under $100,000, they're the most dissatisfied group. If you look at the 14, 15, 16 percent who are saying that they haven't made up their minds, these are working-class people.

  And they're looking for somebody who's a fighter on their behalf. And I think it's important to think about class as you head into this election, because Joe Biden's got a lot of good arguments going on his side that he is taking on corporate America in interesting and important ways.

  Right now, big pharma is filing lawsuits against him because he wants to negotiate Medicare price drugs — price — drug prices, right? How many people know that? How many working-class people know that they have a president who's taking on some very difficult fights?

  Implementation is not just, hey, get jobs in America. It's to improve your wages. You look at the United Auto Workers' fight right now. They want better wages. If you're going to produce electric vehicles in America, the wages shouldn't be $16, $17 an hour. They should be $25, $30, $40 an hour.

  And that's a — that's a big fight. I hope everyone is tuned in. That's what motivates working-class people. Those who haven't made up their minds right now, that's the category. And it's Black, Latino, white, non-college making under $100,000 a year. We got to focus on them and their play right now.

• Amna Nawaz:

  In less than a minute left, but where do you think he is most vulnerable? And Republicans are coming after him again, investigating Hunter Biden and so on. Where's President Biden most vulnerable?

• Faiz Shakir:

  Well, I think it's this idea of energy and enthusiasm.

  It plays into the age question a bit. But the question of strong leader of Joe Biden has dipped over the course of his presidency. He is not always perceived as a strong leader, despite some of these very tough fights that he's taken on.

  And part of it has to do with the enervation, the animation, the energy, the excitement. How many times — remember when — the State of the Union, when he is literally taking on Marjorie Taylor Greene in the chamber?

• Amna Nawaz:

  In real time in the chamber.

• Faiz Shakir:

  In real time.

  I think we have not seen those moments often. But they behoove President Biden well, when he's in those moments, when he's off the cuff, when he's engaging with real people. He's a good politician in that way. But we have not seen him in action.

  And I think that that's what — I think it leads to this age. It leads to the concerns of, is he up to the job? He can resolve a lot of these by just getting out there and showing a passion and energy about his own fights.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, always good to see you. Thanks for being here.

• Faiz Shakir:

  Thank you, Amna.

  Yes, see, I'm excited.

  (Laughter)

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