How the attempted rebellion in Russia could affect Putin’s war in Ukraine

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• Geoff Bennett:

  And for more insight on what the revolt means for Russia's war in Ukraine, we turn to Samuel Bendett, a Russian military analyst for the Center for Naval Analyses.

  Thank you for being with us.

  Samuel, what lies ahead for the Wagner Group? Because Yevgeny Prigozhin has said that his fighters will never accept the options that Vladimir Putin put to them today, which is fight for Russia, go home or go to Belarus.

  Samuel Bendett, Center for Naval Analyses: Well, I think that's a good question.

  This is something that a lot of us are trying to figure out. And these questions are probably going to reverberate for the next several weeks, if not months. Clearly, Wagner is not dismantled. Clearly, it's still a functioning organization. Clearly, there are officers in the Wagner Group that are still with Prigozhin.

  And, clearly, Wagner is still a useful force internationally, especially in Africa, when it comes to many of Russia's geopolitical interests. So it isn't as simple as simply dismantling Wagner. There's a lot of money invested. There's a lot of effort invested.

  There's a lot of discussions in the Russian government today whether or not private military companies like Wagner should even be allowed following what happened this weekend. But Prigozhin probably has his own allies in the Kremlin. And so the fight over its fate, it will continue.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, on that point, how much does Putin need the Wagner Group to fight his war?

• Samuel Bendett:

  It depends at this point.

  Clearly, Wagner was a good attacking force around Bakhmut, good in the sense that they could keep Ukrainian forces occupied in that particular city. But, right now, Russia is fighting a defensive war. It doesn't need Wagner forces to storm Ukrainian positions the way they have done in Bakhmut.

  And so this is a question that it's up to the Ministry of Defense, it's up to the Kremlin, and it's up to Prigozhin's allies and foes, as they are now discussing how the country is going to move forward after this 72 hours.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Is Ukraine well-positioned to take advantage of this moment? Might this be a decisive turn in their counteroffensive?

• Samuel Bendett:

  Anything is possible, but a lot of Russians were concerned that Ukraine will take advantage of what is happening in Russia this weekend.

  However, no significant Ukrainian breakthrough has materialized in the last 72 hours against the Russian positions. Even though Ukrainians have advanced somewhat against the Russian positions, there was no massive breakthrough that probably a lot of people were hoping for.

  So it's not exactly clear what will happen to the advance going forward. But, right now, Russians seem to be holding firm, even if they're losing some of the territory to the attacking Ukrainian formations.

• Geoff Bennett:

  From your vantage point, what might this revolt mean for morale among Russian troops, many of whom are conscripts and were conscripted into service unwillingly, reluctantly?

• Samuel Bendett:

  The morale can't be good, especially when the president officially pardons the Wagnerites, who have shut down Russian military aircraft and killed the pilots.

  Probably there's a lot of bad feelings right now and there's a lot of anger and resentment at Wagner across the military, and especially within the MOD. There was bad blood between Wagner and military before this uprising, or mutiny, whatever it is going to be called, but the bad feelings are probably going to persist.

  And so it's not exactly clear how much the military will welcome Wagner, even as the president welcomes Wagner soldiers into its ranks, although Prigozhin, in his audio message this morning, indicated that very few Wagnerites are going to join the military. So, again, a lot of questions and really not a lot of answers right now.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And, lastly, Samuel in the 20 seconds or so we have left, what does the undermining of Vladimir Putin's authority mean for him as the leader of Russia's military? What's that do to his standing?

• Samuel Bendett:

  Well, certainly, the events of the weekend — of the past week undermine his standing. They were bad optics for him in general. Certainly, he seemed weak.

  And, certainly, there are issues within the government and the government's response to this crises that have to be considered. But we shouldn't necessarily rush to judgment and we shouldn't write Putin off quite yet. He can survive certain crises. And he's probably going to try and survive this one as well.

  And, again, all roads lead to Putin at this point. And he is still the chief decision-maker and the one who is the arbiter of a lot of disputes and decisions in the government. So, we will have to see.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Samuel Bendett with the Center for Naval Analyses, thanks so much for being with us.

• Samuel Bendett:

  Thank you.

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