In California’s redrawn 47th district, the House race is a toss-up

Geoff Bennett:

If Republicans want to gain control of the House of Representatives, a district like California's 47 is one they'll need to flip. Pollsters consider the race there, a toss-up between the Democratic incumbent, Katie Porter and Republican Scott Baugh, both of whom are running in a vastly redrawn district. This past weekend, we went to California to take a closer look at the race.

Hugs, photos and pep talks, the signatures of a Get Out the Vote effort in Orange County, California. At events in Costa Mesa and Huntington Beach, Republican and former State Assembly Member Scott Baugh works to rally his supporters.

Scott Baugh, (R) California Congressional Candidate: We're going to retire Katie Porter and then we're going to fire Nancy Pelosi. That's what we're going to do.

Rep. Katie Porter (D) California: Don't ring the doorbell —

Geoff Bennett:

With a whiteboard in tow, Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter talk with volunteers about how to connect with voters.

Katie Porter:

People are nervous today to talk about politics, the division, the risk of political violence, the extremism, they are nervous. So, if you're cheerful, and you're calm, you're accepting, you listen, you show a willingness to listen to them. They're going to respond in kind, and you're going to have a ton of fun today.

Scott Baugh:

I mean, you know, this economy's in the hole.

Geoff Bennett:

But out canvassing with Scott Baugh, it quickly became clear what's top of mind for many voters.

So that gentleman there said his top concern was inflation, high cost of living, what's your answer to that? How do you even address that if you're elected?

Scott Baugh:

Well, actually, interestingly enough, he addressed it himself. He knew more about it than most people, he said that we have to get the supply going up. Inflation is caused by two things. Number one, a lack of production of goods and services. And number two, too much spending. And if you bring your spending down, and you get your supply chains fixed, and you get the production coming back up, then you solve the inflation problem.

Geoff Bennett:

At the pump, here in Orange County, the average cost of a gallon of gas is $5.41, more than $1 and a half above the national average. Porter acknowledges as the party in power inflation is a problem that needs attention.

Katie Porter:

I'm seeing it at the grocery store. I'm seeing it at the pump. We are all struggling with this. And so, but we have to remind people that Democrats have a plan. And they have already been enacting that plan. Yes, we've taken action to try to bring down the cost of gas through things like releasing oil on the strategic petroleum reserves, we've taken action on bringing down health care premiums through the Inflation Reduction Act for people on the Affordable Care Act. But there is more to be done. And one of the things that I remind people is that corporate profits today are make up about half of inflation, what we're paying at the grocery store, that extra $2, $1 of that $2 is corporate profits. You know, one of the things they say often is, look, I would welcome Republicans to help with inflation. But all they have done is point the finger. They haven't offered any solutions.

Geoff Bennett:

Baugh says, his answer is to cut spending.

Scott Baugh:

We can't afford to be running trillion-dollar deficits every year. There's a financial consequence to that, eventually, and I think we're running up against the upper limit of that. And so, we need to get our spending under control. Congress right now, they scratch every spending itch they have. And we can't do that.

Geoff Bennett:

For Republican Joann Adams who owns several small businesses in Orange County, including Bogarts Coffee shop, tax cuts would be a welcome change.

Joann Adams, Owner Bogarts Coffee House:

I feel that when taxes go up and when the supply chain issues have affected the prices for us and the availability of product for us, it ends up making it impossible to keep our prices where they are. I have to raise prices and I feel like that's harmful. If it's you know, it's harmful to me to have higher prices but then my customers feel the same pain when I raise prices. But you got to do what you got to do.

Geoff Bennett:

The district that Baugh and Porter are vying for is brand new. Its lines were redrawn in 2020. The affluent coastal district now includes a chunk of Orange County, running along the coast and jetting inland to Irvine.

University of California, Irvine Professor Tony Smith says when it comes to Orange County voters, there's more than meets the eye.

Orange County used to be a Republican Bastion, Ronald Reagan's GOP, is that still the case?

Tony Smith, Professor, University of California Irvine: The Republicans that are here are still those people. But the Republican Party nationally isn't that anymore. So, the folks here are much more interested in hearing about capital gains taxes, or the absence of capital gains taxes than they are hearing about same sex-marriage or abortion contestation, or in general the culture wars.

Geoff Bennett:

On those issues, Porter and Baugh are opposites. Porter supports access to abortion, and has voted to protect same-sex marriage. Baugh is on the record as opposing abortion and is against same-sex marriage.

Katie Porter:

If we see people like my opponent, elected to Congress, he has said he will happily be the 208 vote for a nationwide abortion ban. And if that nationwide abortion ban goes into effect, there's nothing that California can do to protect that freedom.

Geoff Bennett:

What do you tell to voters, people hear about why they should send you to D.C.?

Scott Baugh:

Well, because America is on the wrong track. We have $31 trillion in debt. We have open borders. We have drugs and terrorists come across the border. We need to change the direction of America. We need to spend less money. We need to get our fiscal house in order. We need to secure our border and we need to make sure our police are funded.

Geoff Bennett:

This race may also be swayed by money across the district, Katie Porter signs were at nearly every bus stop we passed, a sign of how much her campaign has raised, $22 million.

Ads:

Turns out the real Scott Baugh is a professional lobbyist and a serial law breaker.

Geoff Bennett:

Of that she spent more than $13 million on TV and digital ads. In contrast, Scott Baugh spent just over $1 million on ads.

Scott Baugh, (Ads):

I'm running to change that.

Geoff Bennett:

But he's accepted $8 million worth of airtime from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super PAC.

Ads:

Maybe you should forget the whiteboard, instead of forgetting about us.

Geoff Bennett:

But ultimately says Tony Smith, it may all come down to who exactly shows up to cast their ballot.

Tony Smith:

Scott Baugh has said, he thinks it can be a low turnout election. Well, he should hope it is because he's got a better shot at winning if it isn't. But there's no indication it's going to be a low turnout election, if anything we see 18- to 30-year-olds turning out and almost 40% if you can extrapolate from early voting, and that's going to be a historic high for that age group. And they're voting on abortion. That's what they're voting on. They're not voting on capital gains tax. They don't know what it is.

Geoff Bennett:

And in a district famous for its ocean waves more than its political ones, but remains unknown as who stays afloat and who wipes out.