Jobs report falls short of expectations but signals recession might be avoided

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• Amna Nawaz:

  The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs last month, slightly fewer than expected, but still a sign of a resilient job market.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5 percent. It follows several encouraging reports in the last two weeks on GDP and inflation.

  To break it down, we're now joined by "NewsHour" special correspondent and Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell.

  Thank you for being with us.

• Catherine Rampell:

  Great to join you.

• Geoff Bennett:

  So, Catherine, what are the key takeaways from this report? What stands out the most to you?

• Catherine Rampell:

  I think this was a solid report.

  It was a slower pace of growth, but a more sustainable pace of growth, and, frankly, not even that slow; 187,000 jobs is exactly equal to the average pace of job growth we had in the decade preceding the pandemic. So, in many ways, this was a relatively strong report, probably what the Federal Reserve was looking for, and hopefully a sign that we might be able to avoid a recession.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Well, yes, a question about that, because the economy seems to be holding out now against a recession that lots of people thought was closing in.

  Has that led to concerns that Jay Powell, the Fed chairman, might be overdoing it.

• Catherine Rampell:

  Certainly, some people think he is.

  If you look at where the Fed says rates are going to go, they have anticipated just one more interest rate hike this year. Markets don't yet seem to believe them. They don't seem to think that that will actually come. I think what happens in September, what happens in the months ahead in terms of Fed policy is still a — it's still very much a live issue.

  We don't know what they're going to do. And I think they will be monitoring the data to make sure that they do their best to avoid tipping us into a recession.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Looking at the data, women's labor force participation rates are at an all-time high.

  What do you make of that?

• Catherine Rampell:

  I think it's remarkable. Viewers may remember that, a couple of years ago, three years ago, in fact, there were lots of articles, lots of coverage about a she-cession.

  Folks may remember that, the idea being that women were disproportionately hurt by the pandemic recession because of the kinds of occupations they were in, as well as the fact that they were disproportionately hurt by childcare disruptions and schools going remote.

  And there were a lot of fears that working women would be set back a generation. Instead, the reverse has happened. Women have come back, at least financially or labor-wise, stronger than ever. As you point out, their labor force participation rates for prime-age women are around record highs.

  And I don't exactly know what to attribute that to. It could very well be the fact that there's more remote work available. It could be the fact that more women are college-educated today than had been so in the past and, as a result, that has contributed to their greater likelihood to be in the work force.

  But I think it's a bit of a puzzle, and, frankly, a good problem to have or a good puzzle to have.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Let's talk about wages, because the Fed doesn't want them to rise too fast because of inflation.

  Workers obviously want to make more money. Where does that stand right now?

• Catherine Rampell:

  The numbers for wage growth were a little bit stronger, I think, than the Fed might want to see.

  However, I don't necessarily know that that means we should expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates more aggressively than we thought they would have done a few days ago, in the sense that this may be a bit of a lag. It may be that workers are catching up, in fact, to the price growth — price growth that we have already seen elsewhere in the labor market.

  That is, they're demanding higher pay to compensate for the fact that the things that they buy are getting more expensive, and it doesn't seem so high that I think it's going to be cause for concern. But, that said, we don't know. It's one month of data. We will have to watch what happens in the months ahead.

  And other indicators, I think, have been more comforting for the Federal Reserve, things like overall price growth coming down, for example.

• Geoff Bennett:

  Catherine Rampell, thanks so much for that insight and analysis. We appreciate it.

• Catherine Rampell:

  Thank you.

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