Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Biden’s reelection hopes and Sinema’s party switch

Amna Nawaz:

Tomorrow, the president plans to sign into law a bipartisan bill on same-sex marriage after what the White House called a — quote — "very good week" of delivering for voters, that optimism despite a jolt to the new 51-seat Senate majority in Senator Kyrsten Sinema's party switch.

Here to analyze all this and more is our Politics Monday team, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

And welcome to you both. Good to see you.

So, I thought it's a good time to pull together some of the headlines you have been seeing around the president and kind of get some perspective on what comes next. The last few weeks, you saw the president's party outperform history in the midterms. Gas prices are down. They had a legislative when codifying same-sex and interracial marriage protections. They brought Brittney Griner home.

At this point, Tam, when you look at it, if the president chooses to run again, is he primary-proof?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Well, I have been talking to Democratic consultants and others who are following this very closely, pollsters, and their sense is, yes, maybe there could be some sort of gadfly who would come along who might try to run in a primary, but Joe Biden has cleared the field.

And the reality is that an incumbent president should easily clear the field. And, in the past, I mean, nobody was asking, is Barack Obama going to run for reelection? What's up with that? And his approval rating was in the same general neighborhood as Biden's.

What one person told me is that, at this point, with the sort of hyperpartisanship and polarization as it is, you don't have to be widely beloved, even in your own party, to be a strong contender, depending on what the other party does.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, what do you think?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes, it's interesting.

The takeaway from the midterm elections was Donald Trump had a terrible night, Joe Biden had a great night. But when you look at the data in terms of how people see both of those candidates, it doesn't look like either one had a particularly great night or midterm election.

Amna Nawaz:

Several days.

Amy Walter:

The president — several days.

(LAUGHTER)

Amy Walter:

However long it took to get all that going.

President Biden's approval rating is somewhere around 42 percent. Now, Tam is right. We're in a really polarized country, era. So it's rare that you're going to see the president's approval rating pop very high, but still didn't really get any sort of bump from overcoming the traditional midterm drag, nor any of the things that you just mentioned about gas prices, et cetera.

It's not translating to support for Biden. There was a poll that came out, I think it was this week or late last week. Only 57 — actually, more than 57 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of independents don't want to see Joe Biden running.

And, finally, this was from a Democratic polling firm that came out with, here's our analysis of what happened in 2022. This is also the polling firm that does Joe Biden's polling. They said, Democrats overperformed in this election because voters disliked Republican candidates more, not because voters liked Democrats more than we thought.

So, that is essentially…

(CROSSTALK)

Tamara Keith:

There's that polarization again.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

That's what it is.

Well, we know his agenda had — could be complicated slightly by the fact that one sitting Democrat, senator, decided to switch her party affiliation, Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, from Democrat to independent.

Politico's reporting today, by the way, that Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego seems to be taking another step towards potentially challenging Sinema in 2024. He signed up with a major Democratic polling firm. He was asked about possibly running this morning on MSNBC.

Here's what he had to say.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ):

I'm going to listen to my family over the holidays. I have a big Latino family that's going to come in this — over Christmas. There's going to be a very, very crowded house.

But then, after that, we will be making a decision. And we will be making decision based on what's best for Arizona and based on what I hear from the actual constituents of Arizona.

Amna Nawaz:

Tam, does he run? And, if he does, does he risk splitting Democrat voters there?

Tamara Keith:

I will say that a lot of people are spending a lot of time with their families this holiday, big life decisions about their political futures, including the president we just talked about, and several Republicans who are spending a lot of time with their families trying to decide whether to run for president.

(LAUGHTER)

Tamara Keith:

The calculation for Democrats is, Kyrsten Sinema is now an independent who is — votes with Democrats like 90 percent of the time, something like that. She is going to stay on committees, giving them the majority in the Senate.

There are already two other independents who caucus with Democrats. So she's not blazing a path there necessarily. The question though, is, if she's an independent, she doesn't have to run in a Democratic primary. That was obviously — even though she would not cop to that, that is obviously part of the calculation in deciding to be an independent, is avoiding a primary that Congressman Gallego was basically telegraphing.

So the question, though, for Democrats is, if it's a three-way race, if it is a Democratic nominee, an independent who leans Democratic, and a Republican, well, then do the Democrat and the independent who used to be a Democrat split the left-leaning, center-left vote?

And what does that mean? Does that just give a Republican an easy path to winning that Senate?

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

What does the president do?

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Does he endorse?

Amna Nawaz:

What does the party do?

Amy Walter:

What does the party do?

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

It's a very complicated dance, because she didn't switch parties, in the sense, right, we have seen in previous years, Arlen Specter, Jim Jeffords in Vermont.

But being an independent means, well, the party itself is not — you're not part of any party apparatus. It's also important because Arizona is not just about the Senate race. That's a critical Senate race. But for the presidential contest, to have the Democratic Party divided is quite problematic.

And what has helped Democrats in Arizona for these past few years, since 2018, they have been incredibly united, haven't had the kind of knockdown, drag-out primary fights, like Republicans have had.

Amna Nawaz:

Can I ask you about Republicans in Arizona before we go?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

We know that the former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has refused to concede, is now challenging that loss in court, asking a court to throw out all the results from Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, and either declare her the winner or rerun the election in that county.

Amy, what does this tell us about Republican voters and future candidates in Arizona?

Amy Walter:

Right.

Well, she's actually unique. Of all the candidates who did support President — former President Donald Trump's contention that the election actually was rigged or stolen, they all conceded, or at least have not gone to the lengths that Kari Lake has gone to.

What's really important to remember about throwing out Maricopa County, you know who the top vote-getter in Maricopa County was? Republican state treasurer got the most votes in Maricopa County. The second most was Mark Kelly, the Democrat, and then it was Kari Lake.

So, it's — if you throw out all those votes, you also throw out a lot of Republican winners.

Amna Nawaz:

A few seconds we have left, Tam. How do you look at this?

Tamara Keith:

Well, the judicial process is part of the election system. People can appeal things to courts.

But then, when courts weigh in — and, in the case of 2020, President Trump, former President Trump's cases were all thrown out — then that's when it's over.

Amna Nawaz:

And it looks like a story we're going to be following for a very long time. Arizona continues to be interesting for the near and far future.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, thanks so much.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.